We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Looking at level 2 the last few weeks, mostly it’s been Peel on the offer, looks like they are managing an exit from either an existing holder or the last of the fast money that shorted the stock eg Maven. Looking at price recovery this week that scenario may be coming to a closure.
But then again it’s conjecture on my part. However looking back at the last equity piece in Feb 2021 we has a similar trend, then followed a quick rally.
https://www.mining.com/web/nickel-price-storms-to-10-year-peak-on-worries-about-supplies/
Good article. Thanks.
Pushed through the $10/lb barrier , at these levels A1 = Cash machine, A2 = Cash machine ++,
Longer term Vermelho = Giant cash machine
As an estimate A1 alone could throw off over $200m of cash per annum at these prices. Simple sum.
Nickel price @ $22k/t -C1 production costs @ $8k/t= $14k /t profit x production of 15kt = $210m
yes, its a pretty heavy team sheet at the top there and reads well. 4 industry heavies is very comforting.
Exactly Haz, a stealthy exchange of future wealth taking place from the impatient investors or those with a shorter term view.
HZM has bounced quickly several times in the past, will likely do so again in my opinion.
Not sure about the consolidation plan, but it would make sense to me to get out of the penny share status at some point, so potentially a one for 10ish would be a reasonable guesstimate given our expectation of future pricing as we turn constructions to commissioning to production.
In terms of further funding for Araguaia I also don't at this point expect further equity funding for A1, there looks to be more than enough with contingency on contingency of around $90m (including CLN)+ working capital, so plenty there for A1. If the build comes in on budget then there is sizable money to use on A2, further to that the recent equipment purchased will significantly reduce A2 costs, if Nickel is still at these prices A1 throws of huge amounts of cash to repay CLN and pull forward A2. All this points towards a fast track A2 project.
Lets see what the news flow tells us in due course but the rhetoric is all hopefully about fast track A2 as they construct A1. But the main focus needs to be A1, that's the gateway asset to open up the rest of the value while Vermelho is quietly taking shape meantime with DFS and potential partnering.
Its a sound strategy, we also shouldn't forget Jeremy has been known to pull a rabbit from the hat from time to time, eg Serro Do Tapa resource a few years back and more recently the surprise asset purchase of a second hand but unused RKEF line.
Never been a better time to buy in my opinion (I still holds all of my shares), trust in the diligence of Orion and La Mancha with there $185m investment at 7p and the banks lending $340m, that in itself is quite a statement of whats coming. GLA.
Not sure, early January was my expectation. But nothing moves too quickly in mining. I am relying on soon….but perhaps the odd i to dot and t to cross on the final paperwork. Then out with the shovels.
I would expect an update during early January now the funding is complete. Interested to see who has come in and at what size in the equity.
Well there are many companies who forecast nickel prices, some say higher some say lower.
But I look at the constant reduction in LME stocks and where the money is flowing, that’s where the real action is. Majors are now swooping on or investing into base metal assets such as Nickel right now ahead of the super cycle. Place your bets time.
Interesting to see the updated holdings when they are ready. Who’s who on the register following the equity piece.
While we wait for the inevitable share price recovery after the blitz, there are articles a plenty aligning to the HZM asset development strategy and business model. This article identifies 2 of the key ones of low carbon NPI and access to the growth of battery material demand. The Indonesian assets generally rely heavily on fossil fuels for power and energy so while they will have the capacity, it will limit global market demand for their product. I would therefore bet that in time low carbon NPI will command a higher price.
Looking forward to the ground breaking moment for Araguaia in January and the development progress with Vermelho.
https://www.mining.com/global-nickel-supply-could-increase-by-20-in-2022-report/
Debt won’t be drawn down until all other funds are used, that’s my understanding.
Cash and equity funds first, then CLNs, then the debt is drawn with the banks and used as late as possible.
Yup, I was thinking the same. Does not make equitable sense as the price certainly dropped like a stone. Perplexing.
Free the caterham what's your view on this?
Thanks.
Level 2 getting significantly stronger, Peel came on the bid for the first time in weeks. Could be an interesting session.
Interesting to observe these multiple larger trades today, 500k, 250k 500k 6.5m etc
Smoke and mirrors for sure.
I think they will simply go to the share register under their registered owners, no trade should show. But the register will reflect total ownership at 3.8B shares. Interesting to see what plays out.
I reckon when the placing shares arrive tomorrow, they join at 7p, thus averaging up the current share price. Not 100% sure on that but that’s the value they arrive on the book at so should reflect into the SP. if they were joining at 5p for example we would average down.
We will be valued at just over £200m with close to that in cash, a fully permitted and funded build.
All a bit crazy by my reckoning but there we have it, buy while you can at these levels IMHO.
Fair bit of shenanigans behind the scenes it appears, one of those cancelled out though so only one trade at 6.5m I think?