Member Info for Corryvreckan1

The 517p trades were reported as Over The Counter (OTC) so they are private deals done off market but then still reported to the stock exchange for transparency.

They're not true late reported trades as that would show in the information icon as "Delayed publication", similar to many of the others after the bell that you can see. They may have been agreed between the relevant parties earlier in the day though, and then concluded and reported to the exchange at 17:03 (I think, don't hang me for that though).

Google finance always works on a 'last trade value reported' basis, so they often show the very last of these after bell trades as if it were the closing price, although that's technically not what they are displaying. The only official source of closing price information is the stock exchange and they correctly show today's closing price as 548p, which was the UT from the closing auction (as per most days) at 16:35.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/YOU/yougov-plc/company-page

Particularly on days like the last few when there is very high volatility and lots of back room deals being done, Google finance will frequently show a very different 'final' trade compared to the correct closing price. So it's not really dodgy, it's just not doing what you might reasonably expect it should be.

"a single B and C shares." What???

As I explained yesterday it was a Reach press release, not an RNS.

Good spot on the PDMR. It's 30 calendar days for the closed period and the transaction date was 4th July, so couldn't release last week.

BLUECLYDE - next set of results (Q3) will be on 24th October, not in Sept.

Current buyback scheme for £750m has started today, see RNS:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BARC/transaction-in-own-shares-m0htxn6xri1qbkz.html

I had a note for a possible TU in my calendar as well, but they also said in the AGM TU “The Board will provide its next trading update with publication of the interim results for the six months ending 30 June 2024 which is scheduled for Tuesday 10 September 2024.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GAMA/agm-trading-update-mb8b29boyoqhlw9.html

In previous years the AGM TU always said “The Board will provide its next trading update prior to the publication of the half year results”.

So a subtle change of wording suggests we need to wait for the interims this year.

Two reasons:

1. It was issued by the non-regulatory Reach service rather than by full RNS, and LSE don't pick up the Reach feed. So basically a press release rather than regulatory.

2. It includes the statement "There is no change to the Company's already stated 2024 and medium-term financial guidance."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ONT/oxford-nanopore-singapore-precision-medicine-prog/16601673

So it's a business as usual announcement, no market reaction expected from that, particularly in the middle of today's market nonsense.

Solomonkane - that 0.2p 'tweak' was an increase of 7.4% over the interim last year. Apply that forward to the final next Feb and we could be looking at 8.5p+ for FY24. And it will continue to rise, that's how the progressive element of the capital return works. It should be substantially higher than 8p per share in 2026 as it should increase in direct proportion to, and inversely to, the falling share count. Those that keep holding their shares should see increasing dividends over time (all else being equal) along with the theoretical increase in the share price from the buybacks, thus improving total shareholder returns. Or you could just sell and Badgernator may well happily pick up your shares ;o)

I would argue that 'slow start' is relative and unknown. We might even be ahead of the run rate that the Board expected at this time. We don't know because they announced it as a three year target without splits, which is why I think we need to see what they announce for next year in Feb, to get a clearer picture before assessing where we are at. I gave examples before of how the run rate should accelerate over time to achieve the overall objective, rather than an even split each year, so to my mind there is no concern with the buyback (yet). You can birch me in February if I'm wrong :/

Apologies, they have stated "We announced a half year dividend of 2.9p per share alongside a share buyback of up to £750m, with total capital distributions to shareholders of £1.2bn in respect of the the first half of 2024." - so that could be that £750m is the full total until the FY results.

"obviously as the count reduces so the total cash cost would to" - no, just no. As explained in the quote from the company that I gave "with progressive dividend per share growth driven through share count reduction as a result of increased share buybacks". "Progressive growth" - so the amount paid per share increases as the share count falls therefore keeping the "absolute" level. That's one of the key points in how buybacks should increase shareholder returns. They could still then increase the dividend further as the company grows and applying an absolute %, but that's subjective.

"judging..and so is everyone else". No, not everyone, that's your narrow short term view on the buybacks. And we were not talking about a 20 year period, we were discussing the run rate of the current capital return programme that still has 2 1/2 years to go. Poor attempt at deflection there.

"to fill this buyback they need to be buying back more than they actually are." - yes, of course, as you would expect after just 5 months, and as explained that will grow over time and I gave you two examples of how that could work.

"if there is only £750m in the second half as indicated" - they haven't indicated that. The £750m is just the next tranche, there still could be more to follow this half. We won't have a fuller picture until next Feb when they release FY24 results and announce the next phase, hence why I think it is far too early to judge.

The share price drop is market wide, it's carnage across the board here following interest rate uncertainty, concern over contraction in the US, Society Generale results not well received yesterday impacting on European banks, etc, etc. Absurd to pin today's BARC drop on just one thing (any one thing) that happens to concern you without proper analysis. Look at the macro and compare BARC to some of it's peers yesterday and today.

It's not a lower cash dividend at all, your calcs on this are out, and that wouldn't lower the buyback anyway. Look at it another way - the dividend split between interim and final is approx. 1/3 : 2/3. That's fairly standard for companies partly because they don't want to overpay during the year before they have FY audited results. Apply a similar logic to the buybacks - £750m at interim 'could' then equate to £1.5bn in the tranche starting next Feb, and onward. Just as an example.

The company is also expecting to grow over the three year period, with corresponding increase in cash available for buybacks, so I would expect to see a corresponding acceleration of the programme over the period, not flat.

You can't judge them after just 5 months of a three year programme!

To be clear, on the dividend calc, I'm taking "absolute terms" as being on a % basis, with the interim just increased to 2.9p yesterday and the share count already down to 14.72bn.

Not so. Your dividend calc is too low and they said "increased share buybacks" indicating it may grow over time.

They have completed a buyback of £1bn in just 5 months. The next £750m is soon to start. They could follow that with another block through the winter if they wish, or wait until FY24 is visible in Feb next year and then increase the size of the next block. Or, or...

It's a three year programme that was only announced five months ago, give them a chance.

Well the previous £1bn completed two days ago and it started the day after the results announcement in February, so you may be in luck. Or not...

What they actually said in Feb:

"Capital returns: plan to return at least £10bn of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, through dividends and share buybacks, with a continued preference for buybacks. Plan to keep total dividend stable at 2023 level in absolute terms, with progressive dividend per share growth driven through share count reduction as a result of increased share buybacks. Dividends will continue to be paid semi-annually. This multiyear plan is subject to supervisory and Board approval, anticipated financial performance and our published CET1 ratio target range of 13-14%"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BARC/results-announcement-esgvq9120zcjh85.html

So it's c.£2bn of buybacks (annualised) this year alone, then add in the total dividends to be paid, extrapolate over 3 years with a reducing share count ...

The whole market threw a wobbly just after Bailey teased us with a small interest rate cookie and then slammed the box shut just as we reached for the hope of another cookie to follow soon. I'm also still not convinced the US Fed will cut in September :/

"The Directors have confirmed their intention to initiate a share buyback of up to £750m after the balance sheet date. The share buyback is expected to commence in the third quarter of 2024."

No July TU this time, likely because they issued one in May and FY results are soon. The calendar is not a secret, it's just a bit rubbish. It still says just "August" for results (scroll down about a third):

https://www.zoodigital.com/investors/shareholder-services/#investor-content

The trading update on 13th May says "The Company expects to announce full year results for the period to March 2024 in early August 2024."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZOO/trading-and-debt-facilities-update-m1um58bqowe3r1i.html

There may be occasional pauses due to restrictions on market liquidity, price ranges, etc. More details half way down this RNS:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MRL/trading-update-7nl3d8w88z9nf76.html

They will issue an RNS once the scheme is complete.

Every trade is both a buy and a sell, otherwise a trade wouldn't take place, so why should your 'buy' be reported rather than the 'sell' on the other side? The exchange never reports the origin/direction of a trade, and rightly so. All it reports is that a trade took place, at a certain time, at an agreed price between two parties.

This site and others just run a nonsense algo to try and guess something that is unknowable. It compares the trade price to the mid point of the reported spread at the time of the trade - if below mid it marks it as a 'sell', if above as a 'buy' and if it's bang in the middle or late reported it's 'unknown' because it therefore can't 'guess'. It's rubbish and frequently misleading - ignore it.

Date for the y/e trading statement has slipped a few days. It was originally on the calendar for 31st July, then moved to 1st August and now showing as Tues 6th August. All dates were/are marked as 'to be confirmed'.