Member Info for Confounded

This does look a solid run so far, just shows what happens when the pressure is released and the valuation gap is highlighted again. Like last year, where the share price was much cheerier, there are lots of angles TRIN can drive share holder value with the options they have available.

https://unctt.org/kamla-govts-mismanagement-led-to-s-p-downgrade/

With both CERP and TXP having a greater enterprise value than TRIN it suggest the market thinks TRIN are producing 600 bopd and have relinquished most of the cash from the 2018 raise, so anything better than that will be a bonus in the update.....

JFK9, TRIN went from 1.8p to 27p so it could easily go from 11p to 35p in a similar time frame. We need things to start coming together though!

PD, I think the recent awards were part of the that first award. Also that 9% is now under 7% because it got diluted with the raise. So director holdings got diluted in the raise, their rewards got diluted in the raise, so it gave me the view that the management would have taken the raise very seriously and clearly thought it would be worth the pain to all. That obviously was at 15p.... Also the dilution will only happen at the 6.8% level if the share price is 35p or over. Next June is the first opportunity they can fulfil the whole of the award if they hit 35p, who knows maybe 35p won’t be that far away by then and the investor base will be a little cheerier.

Dare I brake the silence and say good to see further director buying. It seems to be creating a solid bottom around here. Let’s hope TRIN does one of it’s nice swings up.

https://newsday.co.tt/2019/05/20/reformed-spt-can-make-south-trinidad-great-again/

These options were impacted by the placing, originally it was for 9% of the outstanding shares, now about 6%.

70% of those awards (to achieve the maximum they mention in the RNS) is based on reaching 35p share price. If 35p is achieved by next June they can claim them earlier. I would say there is a fair incentive to get TRIN to 35p over the next 12 months. Pretty decent return if it is achieved.

Good luck with TXP, it will be interesting watching from the sidelines. My perfect world would be a blend of TXP’s salesmanship/numbers window dressing and TRINs painting the worst possible outlook. HAWs could be transformational for TRIN, what is stoping us from doing 6 this year? We have the funds and the market could start buying into the addition of 1500bopd. There is a lot TRIN could do to add excitement but I suspect they feel the share price will meet any unexpected advances they make.

TRIN have raised sufficient funds for years and care little how the short term share price performs and the unambiguous targets are a reason for at least one large seller distorting the current share price.

Gizzy87, a good post but certainly seen with rose tinted glasses from the TXP side. I am watching TXP closely and hope they do well in their up coming wells. However they have to drill them to maintain licences. They have left this to the very last minute (given the period of time they have held them) and I think have done an excellent job in creating a buzz around them. I think the financial position is king while SPT is around. Drilling a gas well is a good move by TXP but revenue from that is probably not until late this year early next. They have 2 other expensive wells to drill and this is from a company that kept quiet about the missing Petrotrin payment from November and after spending every possible communication to share holders telling them no fund raise was needed, as the business is throwing off cash and they just needed to adjust their drilling schedule, then went ahead and did a fund raise. It shows how tight things are.

One point you make that is common with TXP holder is that TXP get this special Brent deal. In reality all T&T producers get pretty much the same (there is slight variances from field to field) if you read the average realised prices received by both companies. So in TXP world your discount to the higher priced Brent in dropping, but in TRIN world we are getting a premium to the cheaper WTI.

As a TRIN holder I am critical of the way they present information to the market, they almost seem to go out of the way to paint the worst possible picture. TXP on the other hand I think go the polar opposite to the point where some people who have research both companies feel it is too far.

I want all T&T oilers to do well, people are currently completely underestimating the potential TRIN has this year, and it is in my view people are getting a little exuberant with the prospects of TXP. Time will sort through thing.

Why would you want to at this price? You have sat through other periods of a big trade being worked, at least 3. Then a few weeks later TRIN then pops back up, sell then.

PD, You are ignoring the role oil price plays and the fact the current share price is a reflection of some pretty hefty selling recently. I personally would have TRIN's fair value around 20p (brokers clearly have us way higher than that) given where oil price is and in relation to peers. Having held TRIN over the years I am personally encourage that so much selling has formed a base around here. We know TRIN can double in a matter of weeks once selling pressure abates and confidence returns. Throw in a few surprises and mood here can turn on a sixpence.

Https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-oil/u-s-prepares-to-end-exemptions-on-iran-sanctions-and-oil-prices-soar-idUKKCN1RX0R1

Oil breaking out nicely atm.

Spot on CRL

“Before Petrotrin could pass off E&P taxes as a payable to the Government and it would just show up as a liability on the balance sheet, but now Heritage will have to physically cut a cheque the same way we do,” Baay said. In fact, Heritage might feel it more because the Soldado field, which is where production can really be ramped up is subject to the 36 per cent offshore SPT rate. (Onshore rates are 21 per cent). “A third of your revenue is already coming off the top. I don’t think it works so if they’re counting on that to ramp up production (the Government) is going to have to deal with it,” Baay said.

The company is already feeling a pinch, because, as Imbert, standing in for Energy Minister Franklin Khan in the Senate on Tuesday, reported, Heritage reported a net loss of US$2.76 million, although he tried to downplay it by comparing it to the US$50 million loss its much larger predecessor, Petrotrin, made in a similar period. Government has previously stated, though, that the company was getting prices higher than the WTI standard for its product on the international market.“

Yet

“Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Franklin Khan, says between December 2018 and January 2019 Heritage Petroleum Oil Company earned about 700 million TT dollars.”

Sadly it seems the T&T government will have to be educated the hard way. They probably feel it is just T&T oil companies whining, but there will see it in the numbers they have to present to the electorate that “turn over is vanity and profit is sanity”. TRIN and team are doing exceptionally well with what they have to work with but the fiscal regime is a massive headwind.

Excellent interview by Bruce and Jeremy.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5ca206966e7ec228250b02f8/trinity-exploration-production-an-introduction-and-results-interview

Today was a continuation of a technical bounce off 15p resistance, my gut feeling is tomorrow could be very positive breaking through 15p.

Spot on CRL, had they reformed in April 2017 as promised they would have missed out on SPT tax last year but undoubtedly they would be reaping more tax revenue in Jan 2019 than they will with the current regime. As Petrotrin were half T&T production and did not pay any of the SPT due, the loss would not have been that great last year. With reform in April 2017 TRIN would likely have already drilled a few wells on TGAL increasing by several 1000bopd, or aggressively hit onshore. Spread that across the induststry and the increased production would be be being taxed at 12.5% royalty rather than not currently existing...

Hi madcap, yes that is a good summary of the situation and yes 20% of capital expenditure can be offset against SPT. TRIN manages this carefully and can make a significant difference to amounts payable for SPT. There is a hope that a very simple change to the T&T SPT tax would be to make it 100% offsetable. The trouble with SPT and oil at $55 it essentially eats the money the company would be putting into new production. Allow 100% to be offsetable it could encourage a drilling bonanza in T&T leading to a recovery in the oil sector. One simple change that, in my view and others, would lead to a greater tax take for T&T would be transformation for TRIN and its share price. With reform carried out I think TRIN would be in the 20p range with oil at $55. Such a shame the government is so slow to enact change that supposedly was in an advanced stage in Oct 2017.

We live in hope the industry will drive through changes.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/1699527/trinidad-and-tobago-players-pushing-for-tax-reforms

There are few local T&T oilers with our robust balance sheet, some will be fearing for their future having spent 34 of the last 48 months in the SPT dead zone. Hopefully they make their views very clear at this conference. The Energy Chamber are very clear about the subject.

httP://www.ttenergyconference.org/2019/02/opening-remarks-ttec-2019-mr-eugene-tiah/

“What is of undoubted importance to Trinidad & Tobago is making a success of the new upstream focused Heritage Petroleum. Technology is going to have a very important role to play in profitably unlocking the significant oil reserves that still exist in Trinidad & Tobago, but without the right institutional structures and policy environment it is going to be difficult to attract the necessary private capital that will be crucial to the success of Heritage and the oil sector more widely. One of the key inhibiting factors is the current structure of supplemental petroleum taxation, which severely inhibits competitiveness of the Trinidad oil sector. The Energy Chamber once again renews its public plea that the Government seriously addresses this issue.”