Member Info for Condorquestion

Unfortunately we aren’t a mature multinational with 20+ plants worldwide.

We have 1, soon 2, large holes in the ground and some machinery. Not yet the most robust setup.

I wouldn’t hold breath for dividends. I’d bet the profits will be going into growth / diversification / stability…3 then 4 plants.

No problem being wrong on that guess, and we will find out in 3 years which I think was the timeline DB mentioned that dividends *might* be considered.

Good top-level responses there.

Without being intentionally patronising, I suspect that some PIs here might think that dividends are ‘free money / income’, and don’t recognise that the SP drops (grosso modo) an equal value at the moment dividends are paid out, leaving their portfolio quits.

Genuine question: Any of the (many) folks who are saying that they are ‘waiting for dividends’ etc, why are you wanting this?

You know that dividends reduce the value of the company, hence the SP, so you end up quits when dividends are paid out, right? The only attraction I can think of is maybe attracting funds investment. Or maybe folks have personal reasons for preferring income tax vs. CGT if outside ISA?

It’s a nascent growing company with *so much* to invest in. Personally, I’d prefer the cash inside the company for investment flexibility, have a higher SP, and get more money for my shares when I choose to sell them.

I’m not sure that we do have huge daily volumes. Approx. 0.5% daily.

I don’t subscribe to X so don’t know if today’s update is different to the one on X shared by another poster a short while ago.

https://x.com/MTLexploration/status/1942496167993975192

- cash for Nic construction “and then some” (DB)

Not ‘ramping’, just excited.

Upcoming news:

-Newmont mining area Nic

-‘exciting’ (general comment DB)

-Dupax Ex permit + 6 months drill = decision prolongation Runruno

-Possible JV with majors (on certain other areas…Abra?), who ‘are talking’ to MTL.

-‘Crazy exciting’ (general comment DB).

-Relatively boring(!) news re construction La India

-Any number of other drill targets Nic

Epic 12 months ahead. Mahoosive potential.

We are currently ranked 279th largest company in UK by market cap, and will quickly be inside the top 200. There aren’t actually a whole lot of AIM listed companies with higher market cap.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/gbp/united-kingdom/largest-companies-in-the-uk-by-market-cap/?page=3

Good point Cuck. If it’s all Lloyd’s, that’s an option. Personally, I always chanced my arm.

If you have an empty ISA, then the sooner you get your 15k in, the better…you’d still have 5k room.

But again, recognise that you’ll never time it right. We’ve all done it. Sometimes we ace it, sometimes we bodge it. Mostly luck rather than skill, despite what we convince ourselves.

Yup, you have no other option. Try to time it right, but accept that you’ll never get it perfect. Sell/buy in chunks if you want to spread risk. Use your capital gains allowance of 3k if applicable.

…as a company rapidly expanding, that it’s difficult to put an SP estimate on anything. The SP right now is a combination of all the ‘ifs’. But if/as/when the upside events get confirmed, there’s going to be huge jumps in SP. Dupax results most of all.

Not at all a target for me. It’s not ‘free money’. For a company growing I’d rather we didn’t. Invest the cash in growth and simply grow the SP rather than stall it.

I'd guess that is why the SP is increasing (or should we focus on the short-term 'chart'?)

...within 6 months), with considerable upside elsewhere - not only La India district but elsewhere in Nic + Abra.

Chill, stay tuned for Dupax, if its a go basically come back in earnest in 2 years when Nic and Dupax/Runruno conversion both running and all the other upside clarified.

I'm thinking 1 GBP/share in 2 years assuming reasonable execution and I don't see major issues with that. Surely all the large mining companies started like this.

...within

Do your own maths and interpretation of NPV in Nic and Dupax, or take DB at face value for the former and Hannam the latter:

Nicaragua: NPV (6%) @2500 gold: US$882 million = 643 million GBP. Or approx. 1 billion GBP at $3350 gold. DB is putting that at 25p/share with Nic alone running (conservative, but close enough match).

That's just the plant running according to plan. No consideration at all for what we turn up on other existing Nic concessions & hinted at "can't say yet" other location(s).

Runruno Dupax: NPV (10%) Taking Hannam's numbers US$2 billion (not sure what they used for gold price, assume conservative). Circa 1.5 billion GBP = another 40p.

No consideration for Abra etc.

So we are into 65p+ if Dupax turns out as expected (find out within

Https://www.facebook.com/MGBregionaloffice3/posts/1173847614769165/

Can register.

OEE

I used to be a plant manager of an extremely similar plant to La India (or for that matter Runruno) in the USA. Different product, but very similar process. Also high profitability (0.5 MiO$ per FTE), but nowhere near the levels of these gold plants at current prices. Our timing is just beautiful. 13 similar plants nationwide, so I was part of a network…good, but not entirely robust network of critical spares. There can be huge lead times (years) on large gearboxes and motors, and also large mobile equipment. From experience, moving an existing plant is not a whole lot cheaper than installing new, just bear that in mind when quoting the sticker price of what we bought. Advantage here is cheap construction labour, but that can bring serious problems (quality —> OE).

These processes are old tech, well understood, basically robust, but stuff does go wrong. What is great is that we have the moolah *and the time* to buy double of the critical spares (plus the info gleaned from users of the same equipment as referenced by DB). This is a big deal.

Folks do need to bear in mind that what we have is only 2 plants. It really is quite a poxy setup, not a big company. So there is risk. The greater the diversification, in terms of # of plants, the better. 3 plants would be way better than 2, and we are generating so much bacon, that this is a possibility, soon

DB comes across as a classic process engineer. Solved the problems at Runruno - probably did some simple trials based on knowledge / network, and figured it out. And has the luxury and nous of doing all the right things socially and politically given current cash flow, and because it is the right thing to do. There are lots of folks I know like DB.

I’m heavily invested because I think (whoops), I understand what is going on here, technically. I’d love to see plans for 3 operating plants and the stability that would bring (suspect would be strongly reflected in SP). Multi billion company at these gold levels even with 2, but 3 would be awesome. Cart before the horse a little but timeframes are very cool for all of this.