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I suspect interest and liquidity will be much higher by March 2027 and even more so the year after that. Being public means each of us can add and trim so it’s quite useful for retail investors.

If they sell down their full holding, we’ll be stuck at 105p until January I’d guess. Doesn’t really matter if you’re a long term holder as long as the fundamentals are improving every day. Trading in line with board expectations means positive ebitda in 2026 which is a major step forward and means no need to fundraise at a low mcap.

They’ve adopted a very proactive strategy to drum up interest in ITX shares.

My assumption is that they are looking for a critical mass of new investment to clear the Octopus overhang. MELLO is a good opportunity to do that and the Director buy and 3 positive RNSs have clearly been timed to precede the conference.

Will be fascinating to see if they can achieve escape velocity. Even if they don’t, it all helps speed up the octopus sell-down.

Thanks AJP

So 100,000kg in 6 months H2 2025 and then more than doubling to 120,000kg in q1 - 2026.

Certainly looking hopeful. If ITX confirms it will achieve positive cashflow this year rather than next, that should trigger a re-rate and these volumes indicate sales rising far faster than market guidance to date.

I think we need to take them with a pinch of salt as John did say these records don’t capture the full picture in a recent interview.

The risk to LTHs will plummet if they announce positive cashflow has come early. Fingers crossed.

Today’s RNS is interesting for two reasons.

1) Itaconix polymers may have value in yet another very large market (crop production).

2) Itaconix has released three bits in news in a week in the run up to its expected June 10 update and AGM.

Releasing news via RNS outside quarterly trading updates is very rare for Itaconix so this is a change of strategy.

Could they be trying to build trading momentum to clear out Octopus Investments as OI sells down?

With the Director share purchases a couple of weeks ago, I’d be surprised if these bits of news were being shared to prep the ground for disappointing results although that’s possible.

This is a genuinely fascinating company to follow as the fundamentals and outlook keep improving and the SP stays static due to the overhang of Octopus sales. At some point it could rocket.

Another possibility is that the adjournment (to June 10th) followed the realisation that the director share buy on 8th May would have been within the 30 day no trading period if a trading update or accounts had been released alongside the AGM? June 10th is about as soon as they could hold it to retain the 30 day window.

Good plan. I know they don’t want to oversell or waste time and money on endless RNS updates but some of the progress they are making seems undersold. This is a good example. ITX retail investors could act as part of the marketing strategy for something like this as first adopters etc. but we can only do that if we know about it.

Yes, that looks significant AJP.

Is that the first set of B2C products ITX have sold? Scaling that will involve a whole different set of marketing skills and investment but would presumably capture a lot more of the end value if they can generate good sales.

Yes, director buys are always good, even if small.

And another 45k of (probable) Octopus sales went through yesterday morning by the looks of it.

Yes, we don't have any evidence Octopus are planning to liquidate their entire holding. The only evidence we have (a near static share price combined with improving fundamentals) indicates to me that they are still drip feeding shares into the market for now but they may stop doing so while retaining a smaller position. All guess work as SI says.

The way I see it at the moment, there are 4 potential bull case upsides for Itaconix from here.

1) the fundamentals indicate the share is underpriced and when Octopus complete their selling, we will see a natural rise in SP without other news.

2) there is a good chance that the next two/three quarterly reports confirm positive ebitda in the current year. Small cap institutional buyers may look at ITX again if if they see that combined with repeatable $10m + revenues

3) the company has indicated revenues of $25-30m within 3-5 years. If that produced ebitda of say, $6m, the mcap might reasonably rise to $60m to $120m over that period depending on the PE ratio. A return of 4X to 8X from here.

4) If Bioasterisk takes off and the company gets traction in the paints and coatings market, that could see much larger revenues over the 3-10 year period.

Thanks SI.

Agreed, my point wasn’t that it would be 35 days but that if we saw today’s volume every day, it could be as short as that. Far more likely to be towards the end of the year although confirmation of a strong H1 in June could accelerate things.

Hi All,

I’ve been following along without an account for a few years having bought in during the green shares peak (oops!)

I’ve carried on adding over the last couple of years and have averaged down. My holding is in a SIPP and I’m well short of retirement so I can be patient with the SP.

Anyway that hopefully gives you my agenda. I’m keen for the SP to rise but I’m much more focussed on the fundamentals continuing on their current path - margin growth, revenue growth, positive ebitda (this year) and then cash generative (next year).

My theory (shared by others I think) is that from a longterm risk/return perspective, Octopus exiting is actually a rare opportunity to buy while the SP is held artificially low by a seller that is too big to be cleared out by the volume traded on such a small company. Given the need to announce every 1% sold down to 5%, the short-term incentive to buy is dampened because buyers know they still have a lot of time before Octopus has fully liquidated its holding. That may change when they drop below 5% as things will be much more opaque which could act as a signal to rush in.

Every Octopus share sold brings us closer to the SP being free to rise and again that should mean a gradual acceleration of buying. With roughly 30000 net buys today, you’d only need c. 35-40 trading days …

So, we may not have all that long before things begin to move (months rather than years). The bigger risk is execution risk. Can they deliver the $25m+ revenue in 3-5 years? Given the business model seems to be driving solid revenue growth with strong recurring sales and regular new product lines, why not? The EU regulatory environment around phosphates and acrylics provides a very strong tailwind.

Lots of useful intel shared on the board which is always a fun read. Thanks to regular posters.