Member Info for CitizenTS

Yesish Simonsez, Think aiminvestor/happyinvestor/and so on works for a Greek family whose main investments are shipping. We know them/who they are.

Tha last time someone, (AimInvestor) behaved just like HappyInvestor they were busy buying 1% of the issued equity of rkh at the same time.

Could there be a link?

On what happens to the shares issued at 53p on FID. The one liner is a lot of it has already been sold so the selling has been done. No one on here has yet demonstrated close knowledge of who suddenly started buying to push the share price up from the mid teens starting at a seemingly early date. Maybe or probably it was Israeli buyers as some have said. I'd guess so as it happens but whoever it was they have to have been on the placing list for the 53p offer.

In other words the placees generally have not had to wait to get their 53p shares to sell if they wanted to. Posters have wondered who on earth has been selling upto now. Answer is peeps who are getting shares at 53 p soon as they can sell their existing shares.

The evidence we see is that it's a large part of the supposed possible selling post FID that's actually already been done!

On what happens to the shares issued at 53p on FID. The one liner a lot of it has already been sold so the selling has been done. No one on here has yet demonstrated close knowledge of whobsuddenly started buying to push the share price up from the mid teens starting at a seemingly early date. Maybe or probably it was Israeli buyers as some have said. I'd guess so as it happens but whoever it was they have to have been on the placing list forbtheb53p offer.

In other words the placees generally have not had to wait to get their 53p shares to sell if they wanted to. Posters have wo deed who on earth has been selling upto now. Answer is peeps

Do believe this is the smoke that suggests more going on. Though peeps suggest the Shenandoah cash flow enables Nav's SL costs this can't directly be the case. In just the same way as the lenders for SL require SL's cash flow be used to repay them, Shenandoah's cash flow is spoken for until it's own funding is repaid.

However Navitas have said they'll be refinancing it and it's THAT proccess that creates funding for SL. A few months post first oil different, cheaper and, most importantly, larger financing becomes available. Presume that's what we're seeing materialise.

On FID dates, why would Navitas want to maximise the day one share price reaction? Value will emerge in any event, they've got the dosh they need, and Navitas have shown no inclination at all to pander to short term market sentiment.

They have instead focused relentlessly on getting the job done. The shares have always moved at some point anyway. Indeed the reality clearly has been those moves usually have been at unexpected times for those seeking conventional sentiment triggers. That's what we have.

As for what suits a relentless focus on the project, well why make it easy for the Malvinas fanatics and amy green lobby? See if they really want to walk out of the room over Christmas because, as everybody already knew, there's oil in the Falklands! I'd say it might get pretty close to Christmas.

Frustrated buyers in the know on the upside may well sense a possible opportunity.

Right, Sunday afternoon coming to a close. Will move on!

Realise that's off topic!

Just to get real about this, and focusing on undergraduates, there's more than one thing going on but Croft is more right than Zx??.

There have always been international students at Oxbridge, unlike elsewhere, maybe more now maybe less. A huge change is the DEI policy in the UK to actively encourage a wider application base. The standards are not uniform on entry with the earlier assumption being that, in identifying potential, lower standards at entry would be accepted from state school applicants and historically under represented groups.

The deliberate skewing of the new entrants cohort has meant standards have gone up for the private school cohort (now usually in the 30 to 40% region) but are lower for the other 65%, say. The whole process has already probably peaked and is subject to some retrace as final year results from DEI entrants have often disappointed.

Sounds like some on here (Happy etc) are frustrated buyers at this stage.

Would not exclude Hanukah. Who knows but 23rd Dec looks to have a lot going for it to me!

We'll see, last I saw PoO was up this morning

Fyi, some will be aware, but re forecasts the IEA has longstanding form on a quasi political bias against oil

See https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-OPEC-Is-Increasingly-Frustrated-With-The-IEA.html

See

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-forces-test-falklands-air-defences-in-major-exercise/

All in good order.

What do you mke of this - see Translating Phoenix?

https://outsure.substack.com

@divi sounds like your investments ts are f***ed

Congratulations SpaceH on retirement.

@Stevo, Alma, continual really obscure comment on this. Navitas's loan to rkhnis repaid out of 85% of project cash flow. The project cash flow would include (ie, is after) timetabled debt repayments and, if the projections in rkh's own reserves report are met, phase 2 cap ex as in those projections.

It could be early 2030s till Navitas get repaid.

Where proceed might go from any rkh reserve based lending, which may become accessible later in 2028, is perhaps a more interesting question.

@Henrygroucho , one mistake there at the least - it's Russia that's obsessive

Thats " actually within a whiske of " ex typos

Imho ... Delek selling down their Ithaca, as they have incrementally done days ago, helps credentialise Ithaca as a UK entity with a London quote, which it is in any event but now Deleknare actuallynwithinna whisker of going below 50&! That's a reality check. Their Rosebank development probably will happen, defo more likely at this point than a year ago.

Then ... there's Ithaca's presumed (£23m investment in a London listed oil co) rkh stake. Smell the coffee as they say!

Lots of posibilities but the Ithaca link looks a lot like a key pivot for what's going on.