Anyone notice?29 Mar 2026 18:36
Eco's RNS on acquiring JHI said best estimate reserves of 3.5bln. in PL001. Navitas used the same figure on slide 17 of their 18th March presentation (slide 17), but the 3.5mln was NOT for PL001, here it was instead for the TOTAL of PL001 and Sea Lion! And in the split on slide 16 the LARGER PART, 2.2bln, is from Sea Lion with only 1.4bln being PL001. Navitas are conservative and if exploration is successful in PL001 there's no coubt a decent chance resource estimates could head northwards. However the identical figures so close timewise looks more than accidental. Did it make Gil Holzman appear just the tiniest bit lightweight? The Navitas presentation had share price reactions in Eco and Rkh (Eco suddenly came off its peak and Rkh was firmer).
And whilst writing, some other things. The mention by Ian Ramsay in English in the presentation of a third hub being either Isobel or PL001 sets up a few queries. It (presumably) means both will be explored and a decision taken based on what comes out of that. Just one possibility might be that specualtive central areas in PL001 disappoint, edge areas closer to Sea Lion are exploited via tie backs Sea Lion, and then isobel comes in for a third hub there. There are several other possibilities of course! But does this mean we really can look forward to firther exploration/appraisal drills on Isobel?
The other question is how Rkh woul pay for their share of that if it arose before before the existing funding timetable with the banks providing the project finance would allow it. I guess that's where the potential new entrant to the licences might come in, or it could be a modest equity raise (£20m for rkh, 3% of existing mcap?) I'd also wonder if Sam might see any decisions only arising some 2+ years out so that Rkh might be taken over anyway by then.
Finally, you'd have to note that Navitas have set up a situation where you can only be sure of participating in whatever comes out PL001/Isobel by holding Navitas units - though an incoming bidder might want an equal share of Eco and Rkh, hmmmm, or even 100% of both?