Member Info for CitizenTS

It's a fine line the Argies have to tread. If any real impediment was put in the way of a major oil company participating in Vaca Muerta, as Milei will be more than aware ... the company might then look far more seriously at FI projects!

Don't see Navitas buying Rkh at this point at all.

However takeover interest very possible. The route that seems to be opening up, to me, is that Navitas quite rightly interest a third party to come in to the JV at a price that makes "economic sense". A third party moves on it but also looks at athe whole picture and says why not have a load more of the asset at a lower price by buying Rkh.

Can still be traded. Presume partbership units are mostly just a tax thing. Avoids a company that pays a profit tax and then pays dividends that are taxed again by any tax paying holder. Madness. When we had the old ACT system at least individuals got credit for basic rate tax and pension funds got the corporate tax back. However one Gordon Brown messed it all that up by abolishing ACT. Huge (negative) consequences for UK equity markets.

Re my message yesterday - slip on some numbers as more like 50:50 on existing value between earlier and later stages. But reckon all the same its behaving bit like a placing coming up to help fund acceleration of development.

Just specualtive thoughts ...

We have - high volume on Fri, a depressed share price I'd say from an undistirbed value in the mid 80s, results now into June, Navitas stating that looking to accelerate development, and announcements re second FPSO. I'd then add into the picture that the first two phases get to first oil end Q1 2028 and the next three get to "their" first oil mid 2031 but, on thebasis of the March NSAI report t0 Rkh, 80% of the value is in the later stages.

So surely one scenario is that bringing, say, $5bln of value (on the Rkh NSAI basis) from the later stages for the project as a whole, forward a couple of years or so is worth doing as it would add circa $1billion of value to the project, whilst buying the second FPSO also would add a a few hundred million dollars of value compared to leasing. So might we have a placing to fund Rkh's share of new costs that are no longer paid out of project cash flow after accelerating the later phases? We might be adding 20%+ to the project value, along with bringing the positive cash flow date forward. Also have to add in placing proceeds. So I'm going to say (specualtive back of envelope stuff) potentially 30%+ extra value for 15% extra shares is perfectly possible. And I guess that's before considering value from bringing exploration and potentially tie-back revenue forward/into the picture as well.

Just specualtive thoughts as I say, but an interesting week to come one way or another!

Agree mistly with flipper. And Trump has kindly given whoever's been front runner dealing in oil futures a whole week on this one!

That (Rkh hire) is indeed curious Mogger, given rkh is non operating. Note in her experience the then "novel concept of leased second hand fpso"!! Also gas experience.

Personal view but, for better or worse, it might be easier for a new partner and possibly lower cost to take Rkh out and in addition put funds into the JV, rather than buy an interest off Navitas.

The optics of sorting the Navitas founders' royalty would be a hurdle for one. For the most part it's quite simple in that Navitas will sell stuff only once - on any take out of Navitas as a whole down the line.

All options do remain open of course on a partner coming in, and that includes pressing ahead on project acceleration without one. I just think the nature of this beast is that a partner does come in.

A new accelerated development profile would, seems to me, bring most of the value in SL forward by 2 or 3 years or more. That would be a chunky uplift to valuations. A new partner would come in at something nearer the new value - likely providing enough new funding to to do the acceleration even just for 10% of the JV.

That funding would be needed because activity is already scheduled to be continuous with capex of circa $200 to 300 million per annum every year from 2027 to 2033 - which does not sound to me like anyone's exactly taking a break in the existing schedule. But the JV would become cash flow positive in a bigger way earlier on, which would fund exploration though not in the earliest years - consitent with a 5 year licence on PL001.

What is far more interesting is that 10% would not make the cut for many, and anyone coming in would then most likely take out Rkh at the same valuation which would be, errr ... nice!

Xyz - if you want to catch up, and others may well want to, then for example, see slides 14 and 15 of Navitas March 2026 investors presentation re the Southern section/Isobel deep etc at

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/18.03.26-NAVITAS-FINAL-ISA-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%A9.pdf

Fyi the NSAI reports have their own point and are to a large degree focused on activity that can count towards securing repayment of the existing SL project development loans. Other potential value across Navitas's FI assets is outside of those reports.

Hope that helps.

Re ZYX " Isobel is nowhere on the radar of Navitas" - not so as Nav presentation slides referencing "South" are for Isobel.

And would not necessarily expect exploration/appraisal of PL001 and/or Isobel to be some sequential use of SL rig that delays SL. Would not make economic sense. PL001 and Isobel get explored/appraised ideally following a new partner who funds a second rig. Most likely gets into PL001 for not that much and would no doubt at least take a look at acquiring Rkh.

Fyi just to be clear, the USD350m loan is not from Navitas but rather is a project finance loan direct to Rkh. So might be some hurdles for a hypothetical acquirer of Rkh but not really at risk. It's the Navitas USD 250 million loan for 2/3rds of Rkh's "equity" element of the SL development funding that means anything, obviously, would be by agreement with Navitas.

We shall see, likely quite a lot of news to come.

Anyone know the significance of "fixed".

Doesn't have to be there so must have some industry specific meaning.

Err ... I happen to know of a Jewish Morris Dancer!!

What needs to happen is for the Iranian "regime" to bend the knee to their own people.

Would make a change from executing them!

@Mirasol, well yes, things have to be in place first. But Navitas' stated interest in bringing in a partner to accelerate exploration/development is a pre first oil possibility. It's automatic that anyone contemplating coming in would look at Rkh. That's basically the point. What happens after that is speculation.

I see this all with the backdrop of Navitas saying they're looking at bringing a third party in to accelerate development. Have said previously that any new partner coming in will also look at acquiring Rkh. It's if an incoming third part does that, or partly does it, by acquiring Rkh that we'd get a pre first oil bid. The transaction would include acquiring a stake in PL001 so it all would of course involve Navitas. Exactly what form it all might take is hard to say but, unlike anything that might have been speculated on a while ago, Navitas's circa USD 215m zero interest loan to Rkh to provide 2/3rds of Rkh's equity share of Sea Lion funding would not be at issue and/or would all be part of the deal. The rest of the finance/borrowing for Rkh's share of Sea Lion is of course all funded - by Rkh's own cash and the project finance loans (35% to Rkh). All that's left after that is the modest pre-fid fnance from Navitas.

What I struggle more to envisage is how a new partner comes in to PL001. Exactly how would the Navitas founding partners be recompensed for foregoing their 6% royalty on any share of PL001 that they part with? The total cost of accelerating PL001 might be mitigated to some degree by the infrastructure that will be there on Sea Lion but nevertheless would be huge. Remember hundreds of millions (was it USD 600 million?) had been spent on Sea Lion before Navitas even got involved. Also I don't see how anything is accelerated whilst preserving existing value unless a second rig is used. So a second rig would prospect Isobel and PL001 to avoid delaying, and even perhaps being used to accelerate, the existing Sea Lion timetable as in the NSAI dcf reports.

How all those factors could be reflected in valuations for any transaction would be complex and would have to come down to quite a crude haggle if it was ever to be agreed. However at the end of the day the pressures would be for an incoming partner to get in to PL001 by paying not too much to ECO for a large part of their stake in PL001 and perhaps a bit to Navitas for a small %ge. The incoming partner possibly gets their stake in the other licences by paying a good price for Rkh. It might be a very very good price compared to the existing Here's hoping!

Alternatively Navitas get Eco and RKH to unitise their acreage first to make it simpler but I think it's just too early in the PL001 story to do that.

Just some thoughts. We shall see!

I'd see Navitas offering a new partner farm-ins across the Rkh and PL001 acreage. Doubt a new partner would siimply take a stake in Navitas as, amongst other things, they'd then have to sit behind the Navitas founders 6% royalty.

What I do see as inevitable is that any new potential partner that takes a look, and there are going to be a few, will also consider, in some informal way at the least, acquiring Rkh along with the farm ins.

What then might happen is just speculative for now.

Don't see much mention of possible levels of tie-back tariff income to Rkh from PL001. Seems to me that if the 1.4bln of "Sea Lion Hub" oil possible resource (ie, in areas on the Sea Lion side edge of PL001) in the Navitas slides comes to fruition it would be worth at least ~200 million per annum to Rkh! That's using usual tariffs - so in mature fields where numbers are available/quoted. However it's therefore also where there are typically alternatives around and infrastructure has to compete to get the tie-back. FI waters ain't like that. If Rkh get something for there being no alternative and their role in enabling the whole shebang in the first place it could be lot more. On the Rkh side that would be income for no further capital outlay or borrowings, just incremental cash inflow. Has to be worth an extra 20p or 30p to a take-out price ++?

No worrues Dai, Schlemiel's comment was obviously for Woodcroft's unprovoked ejaculation of his prejudices!

The warrants are more than enough for southern area exploration! Am I suddenly realusing that might have been half the point of them?