Calculation and future scenarios22 Dec 2024 11:54
Friday's news has upset us all, there's no doubt about that.
Nevertheless, I would like to try to categorise the situation in a reasonably objective way.
The past and the burning of money is shameful. Unfortunately, there is nothing we can do about it.
But what can the offer and issue of shares mean for us if we stay? I have tried to work this out mathematically. The calculation does not claim to be one hundred per cent correct; management shares are certainly not allocated correctly. But this is irrelevant.
If the private holdings of almost 300 million shares are sold, TFG would only have a stake of around 62% and the company would not be delisted. I am sure that the shares will find buyers. There is an opportunity here to buy shares for 2 pence for a company that will then start a funded P2 trial. This in 2025, as announced.
There is much speculation as to what the value of the company could be if the result is positive. The share was valued at more than £2.00 in both July 2020 and December 2021, resulting in an enterprise value of over £400 million. This with a trial started, not even a successful one. Such values should realistically be achievable again.
The second scenario is that the 300 million shares are not sold and TFG then takes over the remainder and will hold well over 75%. The company will then be delisted from the stock exchange. The shares are not freely tradable, but the value is not yet lost. As the company has always stated, it needs a successful P2 trial in order to get Big Pharma on board afterwards, but realistically it is more likely to be sold. RM's message is also contained in Friday's announcement:
‘If we can demonstrate a significant reduction in mortality it will make SNG001 a valuable asset, attractive to pharma company partners.’
Therefore, the company would most likely be sold and all shareholders would benefit. We are of course in the hands of TFG, but I think we have been for a very long time. Now they are just more invested.
I will certainly continue to buy shares within my means. Depending on when the trial starts and the results are available, it could take around 9 - 18 months to sell the shares. Even in the short term, there could be a jump in the share price once the other shares have been implemented. These are my thoughts on the matter.
Comments?