IC Tip end February 2025 - This stock could double to 180p16 Apr 2025 12:48
This software stock could double in value
Simon Thompson: Cash-generative business is investing in its sales teams to drive revenue growth
First-half revenue up 4 per cent to £1.5mn
Pre-tax profit down slightly to £0.52mn
Net cash up 25 per cent to £7.2mn (54p) year on year
Full-year guidance reiterated
Aim-traded financial software provider Arcontech (ARC:98.5p) has been making near-term investments in its salesforce, development and support teams to drive higher revenue growth in future years, hence the small dip in first-half earnings.
Arcontech provides software products and bespoke solutions for the collection, processing, distribution and presentation of time-sensitive financial market data to blue-chip financial organisations. Its customers are loyal, as highlighted by a 97 per cent recurring revenue stream, of which 60 per cent is subject to multi-year agreements.
Admittedly, lead times remain long, and some customers are cautious about embarking on new projects and increasing their cost base. That said, the sales pipeline continues to improve, not a single customer has downsized contracts on renewals (nor indicated that is their intention) and the board is confident of hitting full-year earnings guidance.
True, the higher run rate of operating expenditure will have a greater impact on second-half numbers, hence why house broker Cavendish is maintaining its full-year pre-tax profit estimate of £0.8mn (down from £1.1mn in 2024) on slightly higher annual revenue of £3.1mn. However, analysts have not embedded any new contract wins into their estimates, and see scope for “substantial upside as the company converts from a strong pipeline, and scales within an addressable market”. Arcontech has a relatively fixed cost base and generates an eye-catching gross margin, so the business benefits from an accentuated drop-through of incremental gross profit to operating profit in a positive sales cycle.
The £13.2mn market capitalisation company is also highly cash generative. It reported free cash flow (FCF) of £0.5mn in the first half, and Cavendish expects a repeat performance in the second half to boost net cash to £7.6mn. On this basis, Arcontech is valued on a 12-month forward operating profit estimates to enterprise valuation of eight times, a deep discount to peers (19-28 times multiple). The bumper 7.6 per cent FCF yield also underpins an attractive prospective dividend yield of 4 per cent, a point I made when I suggested buying the shares at 102p (‘The narrative is changing for this software small cap’, 2 September 2024).
Cavendish’s 180p target price is sensible, but converting the sales pipeline to drive earnings upgrades is the key to a re-rating. Hold.