Member Info for chilting

The comments on the BP board are very similar to here - broadly with Brent above $66.74 why isn't the SP responding?

As a potential investor who is currently still waiting to take the plunge, I think that the answer is simply a matter of risk.

The pandemic is clearly not over and although Brent seems to be in recovery mode, this cannot be guaranteed for multiple reasons.

With most investments you are betting on the company but unfortunately when you invest in oil companies the risk doubles, because you are betting on the oil price as well - therefore, I continue to wait for clarity.

That's it M&S you tell them - those scoundrels are trying to rip off our Colin.

"This is not just any old Caterpillar - This is an M&S Colin the Caterpillar"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56756731

Over the last 20 years or so, the majority of large scale growers who produce crops under glass in the UK have switched to biomass to heat their boilers - grants were available to fund this switch.
Others are sited near to other industries to make use of waste heat, such as heated water from washing sugar beet.
They also feed waste CO2 into their glasshouses to stimulate growth.
Horticulture in the UK is generally a very green industry.

Always try and turn a negative into a positive.
The point being, that if Brent does suddenly spike, the SP will be coming up from a far lower level than it would for a heavily traded company.

Tesco's operation is just a supped up version of what Arkwright offered in Open All Hours - remember Granville's shop bike.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EJIQ4UIS_c

Ok, their online made money, but the crucial point is that it is expensive to operate because it is so labour intensive - it totally overturns the notion of stacking it high and selling it cheap.

These additional costs are a drag on profits.

I am quite sure that if Tesco's senior management had the option of ceasing their online sales that they would do so in a flash, but that's not what the market wants - they are stuck with what they have got and its very inefficient compared to Ocado. Also Aldi and Lidl are just in the market to stack it high and sell it cheap with a bit of click and collect thrown in.

The bottom line with Boohoo is simple Neil - you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear! - no matter how they try to ponce it up by acquiring new brands and opening flashy offices, they will always be a cheap rag merchant.

Tesco's results are out today.

The company reports a healthy increase in sales of around 9% in the UK and they have basically doubled the number of delivery slots offered and recorded a 77% increase in online sales but there is a price to pay, profits in the UK have fallen by around 15%, despite the increase in sales.

So despite running an efficient home delivery operation, when it involves hand picking from the store, there is a big price to pay regarding profit. Its simply too labour intensive.

As I mentioned this morning, its all about Brent, take a look at most Oil shares - including the majors - the share graph for the last 3 months for most shows a very similar pattern.

They all start from a low in early February with a healthy increase until early March then a slow decline since then.

Its simply a waiting game now until Covid declines and oil demand starts to outpace supply - its just a question of when.

I will be keeping an eye of Brent and BP's SP to get some idea when to potentially buy ENQ - both are good early indicators.

Just an observation, but investors seem to be focussing rather to much on Enquest as being the driver of the SP - with fairly stable production and the accepted financial position with debt gradually falling that is a constant.

The real driver is Brent - investing here mainly depends on the price of oil and the judgement of if it will rise or fall in price.

Regarding click and collect, I posted the link below on the Ocado board with these comments -

Click and collect would have to be done properly - that means using Myrmex technology - Ocado have a minority stake in the company.
The video in this reports shows how it works.
https://www.grocerydive.com/news/ocado-acquires-stake-in-robotics-startup-focused-on-click-and-collect-tech/587172/

I think that M&S have a big part to play promoting a click and collect scheme for Ocado Retail in the UK.

With all the spare retail space that M&S have in many of their stores, it should be easy to implement.

Also, M&S are keen to redeploy staff rather than making them redundant so this would be very attractive option from that point of view.

As capacity increases with the new CFC's this would be an obvious move forward to increase market share and also help considerably at busy times like Christmas when delivery slots are short.

Customers could have the best of both worlds with Ocado Retail click and collect sites at M&S Food halls.

They could self select fresh produce and anything else they needed in the M&S store and then pick up their Ocado Retail order on the way out.

M&S would have every right to claim that they could provide the largest range of groceries, under one roof, in the UK - that would be a game changer.

Lots more to come from Ocado Retail this year - new mini CFC has just opened at Bristol with 2 more large CFC's to open later in the year bringing an eventual 40% increase in capacity.

Also Ocado Retail are now accepting orders from new customers - the business has also returned to pre-pandemic levels of service with good slot availability and customers can change their orders up to 17.25 the day before delivery.

Customers could have the best of both worlds with Ocado Retail click and collect sites at M&S Food halls.

They could self select fresh produce and anything else they needed in the M&S store and then pick up their Ocado Retail order on the way out.

It would have to be done properly - that means using Myrmex technology - Ocado have a minority stake in the company.

The video in this reports shows how it works.

https://www.grocerydive.com/news/ocado-acquires-stake-in-robotics-startup-focused-on-click-and-collect-tech/587172/

Yes, I think that M&S have a big part to play promoting a click and collect scheme for Ocado Retail in the UK.

With all the spare retail space that M&S have in many of their stores, it should be easy to implement.

Also, M&S are keen to redeploy staff rather than making them redundant so this would be very attractive option from that point of view.

As capacity increases with the new CFC's this would be an obvious move forward to increase market share and also help considerably at busy times like Christmas when delivery slots are short.

Not sure that panicking investors into selling is exactly honest, but have it your way Ammu - good luck with your endeavours.
I actually have no position here at the moment.

Yes, Hitman is right it could be that we will see the movement sooner rather than later.
Anyway, don't be panicked into selling folks, just because Ammu wants to cash in on his poxy little 5 bob short.
You are so transparent Ammu!

Sorry, I mean Q3 not Q2.

It looks like a neutral outlook to me with Brent and Enquest's SP not moving much either way until the demand for Brent starts to rise as the pandemic recedes.

So Enquest is a hold and hope - no point selling at a loss.

I still think Brent will still go over $80 at some stage this year following the same sort of pattern set in 2008 - probably in Q2.

So no winners for the time being, but very rich pickings later.

Regarding Ocado Retail, the business has already returned to pre-pandemic levels of service, with good slot availability, edit order the day before delivery by 17.25 and accepting new customers.
There is every indication that the business can continue to grow organically and gain market share as new capacity is added - this is the Ocado business model.

Ocado Solutions will always be cash hungry, it costs a lot to fund new CFC's, new cash rounds are a fact of life - as they are with all growth companies - the point is that the pot gets bigger with every cash range, so dilution isn't a significant factor - as we observed last June when £1 billion was raised and the SP hardly changed.