Member Info for chilting

Totally agree hitman.
Bottom line is that oil stocks are not a long term hold - just trade with an eye on Brent all the time.
However, anyone who has held and is showing a loss has a much better than evens chance of making a profit in the next six months simply because Brent is probably on the rise.

An interesting situation developing here.
Its looking unlikely that the SNP will get an outright majority - although there is still a chance - this will mean that when the PR seats are counted the only other pro independence party will hold the balance of power - the Greens.
So I guess that could have implications somewhere down the line for North Sea Oil - maybe???

I will try and find some info on employment rates in the US shale oil industry - that should give a good insight into how the industry is performing.

mrc
Not traded out, just looking for facts - any rebound of US production is sure to be a major factor re the price of oil.
The main reason for posting the report from January was to highlight the extra pipeline capacity - with that constraint removed any bounce back could be much larger than anticipated.

There is so much contradictory information being published that it is hard to know just what is happening.
Hopefully E121 will be able to give some insight.

As I said, a rebound of US shale would be highly impalpable, so strong evidence that it cannot happen will be most welcome - we do need that evidence otherwise what we could see is a very sharp spike in Brent followed by a deep dive.

Jan
Yes, it would certainly be essential to know the true situation on the ground.
But, with the incentive of high oil prices and the ease of getting to market with the new pipeline capacity, I guess anything is possible.

Even if it very unpalatable it does seem that in the Permian, US producers are coming back strongly.
Also the problems of the past regarding pipeline capacity have been sorted and there is now spare capacity.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/permian-oil-production-could-near-record-in-2021-with-pipeline-capacity-to-spare-62058588

hedged
Share valuation isn't just about the financials - sentiment and potential have to be added.
If it was just about the financials, valuations would be easy, but adding the variables often means they defy logic and the valuation becomes a matter of opinion with the herd mentality playing a big part - even with institutional investors.

Yes, I would certainly agree, an excellent review Valueplay, your insight is of great value to this forum - Thank you.

https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ptab-filings%2FIPR2021-00798%2F1003

Sentiment seems to be turning blue - everything crossed.

It looks like we are on the comeback trail - ITM is also surging with more trades than BP.

NASDAQ and FTS100 Futures looking brighter - hopefully a bounce tomorrow.

NASDAQ and FTS100 Futures looking brighter - hopefully a bounce tomorrow.

And that's the overproduction that they report - basically production that they know that they cannot get away without reporting - how about the production that goes overland through pipelines, from Russia to China for example - how accurately is that measured?

It underlines, I think, that a supply crisis could appear almost from nowhere and that the biggest producer, the Saudi's, will be the only ones left who can increase production to compensate - that's when the missiles will start to fly and Iran will play their games.

To put the current oil price into perspective - Brent has only been higher than it is today for around 50 days in the last two years or so.

OCDO is well worth looking at - SP could easily double up by the end of the year - DYOR.
Much prefer CWR to ITM - ITM is high risk but excellent for traders - very volatile.
However, ENQ is still a very good bet - Brent is still on the up - Oil shares may turn out to give the biggest gain of all this year.

spindok
With the exception of ITX, I would have to agree - even OCDO and CWR are falling - although I was up on ENQ this morning.
My best recent purchase may turn out to be - wait for it - ULVR - you cannot get much more boring than that!

I would imagine Andrew Bailey doesn't have any views on inflation and interest rates - he will have to make them up as he goes along.

From his point of view the only option is full throttle or bust - very disturbing views for a Banker to have to bare - lets hope he sleeps well at nights.

I think the normal balance that we have seen between interest rates and inflation has been radically changed by Covid.

Governments and businesses around the world have increased borrowing as a result of Covid, so the last thing they want is for interest rates to increase.

Therefore, it seems inevitable that as the world recovers we will see inflation take hold, eventually interest rates will have to be increased but that will be much later in the cycle than normal.

Ammu
I will raise issues and say what I think regardless of if I am investing or not.
I said a while ago, that the only way to make money in oil stocks was to trade with an eye on Brent.

I note that you are inclined to comment in a way that reflects your investment status and that you assume others have the same motives.

Hedge funds and other shorts are always opportunistic - they will take advantage of a situation and enhance the falls, but they can rarely dictate.