Member Info for chilting

Yes, its all about Brent today - not Enquest - 50:50 for the rally to continue - certainly not a time to sell, if Brent does get knocked back it will soon recover.

Just short term - since I got back in at the end of April, SP is up about 20% - enough for some traders I guess.

RSA starting to move towards overbought on Brent, so I guess some day traders taking profits - so a temporary pull back likely.

Yes, can confirm that's a long standing marine Traffic error.

There is absolutely no point just posting happy clappy on these boards - just say what you think, as long as it is relevant, that can include comment on the whole of the energy sector, now and in the future - just go for it.

Comment on the companies performance at all levels is particularly relevant - good and bad.

There is the option of a filter button.

Looking at the last three months performance from the mid March highs with BP as the benchmark.

Tullow has followed BP for most of that time and is back up to the same levels as March - the gains so far today have established a years high - BP is also at a years high.

Enquest is about 20% behind Tullow and BP - so a fairly creditable performance.

Harbour is seriously adrift - about 50% down on BP and Tullow since Premier days in March and more or less flat since Harbour started trading on 1st April.

So Enquest has some catching up to do on the rest of the sector but its nothing that a big increase in buying volume cannot solve - over to you AB.

mrc
Thank you for the clarification.

The RNS confirming the debt facility on the 11th June concludes with the following statement -

"Further details on the new facility will be included in the forthcoming prospectus associated with the Group's proposed acquisition of the Golden Eagle assets."

The way I read that is that is that publishing a prospectus means that there will be an equity issue - otherwise why issue a prospectus???

I stand to be corrected.

Aloj
The big difference this time is that instead of new oil production filling the gap between supply and demand, it could be renewables.

High oil prices will give Governments the incentive to subsidise renewables and with private money flooding in as well we could see a major expansion of renewables including nuclear.

Always remember as well that actual power generation costs for renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels, its just the capital costs that are higher and that also includes nuclear.

gkb
There are obviously lots of variables that could make a big difference but coming out of Covid and all the disruption that caused, we are set for a big recovery in the global economy and with oil supply also impacted that does mean that demand is likely to exceed supply.

The only question then is what impact will that have on oil prices - will we see a big short lived spike like 2007-8 followed by a rapid drop off in 2009 or will this be a prolonged rally with Brent remaining at this level for 2-3 years.

My money would be on a big spike this year followed by a rapid drop off as the US producers up production and renewables take market share , hence my belief that oil shares are a traders share, not a long term hold.

gkb
You cannot ignore the collapse in US production and the other cutbacks that producers have made globally as a result of Covid - this time there are solid reasons why demand will eventually outstrip supply as the effects of Covid subside.

Eventually, though the situation will reverse and supply will once again exceed demand, but in the meantime just look foreword to the ride up and then get out quick when it reverses.

Not me elliot - I cannot claim credit for that tip - looks like a result though.

shaggers
I think that maybe we should just put it down to being part of Kroger's marketing strategy, rather than a something that will actually directly benefit their customers.
Also at busy times of the year it would be easy to add extra capacity with so many drivers employed.

They make a big thing about using two drivers in their advertising - its all about fresher than fresh - fresher than fresh is also the theme for all their advertising.

https://twitter.com/kroger/status/1397947913171517444

It just occurred to me, one practical reason why they have two drivers - in a hot climate it would be vital to get perishables and frozen products into customers homes quickly - also I guess this would be a big selling point for home delivery, customers doing their own shopping would certainly have trouble keeping their groceries cold, even with air conditioning in their cars.

The question isn't that oil will be replaced, its about how much demand will fall for oil as more renewables come on line.

As always the oil price will be governed by this balance between supply and demand.

We can be sure, I think, that demand will outpace supply for a couple of years, after that there are so many variables in place, that it becomes impossible to predict - even down to the tyres on EV's.

This is why, I think, that we see so many contradictory articles on the subject.

Beyond the next few years, when demand will clearly exceed supply for oil, it becomes much more difficult to predict what will happen.

In the western world, electric power is set to dominate - even more so if electric cars are adopted - the important thing to remember with electric power is that although capital costs for renewables - solar, wind, nuclear - are higher, actual generation costs are cheaper than fossil fuels, especially if Governments impose carbon taxes.

Also hydrogen is a red herring, it will probably only compete with nuclear as an alternative if the tech is viable.

Fascinating - it will be very interesting to see how much overall market share Kroger gain in Florida - a big test for online v physical stores.
Customer service from the drivers goes way beyond Ocado Retail - two drivers and a full on effort to make sure the customer is happy - but that is the US way.
Have a nice day!

The appearance of lse is an excellent omen - he has the habit of turning up just before the SP takes off - this has been proven countless times over the last five years.

Matching supply and demand clearly makes all the difference with oil prices, we have been over supplied for so long now that most investors, including me, don't have experience of market conditions when demand exceeds supply.

But will this actually happen.

Looking at the current situation, supply is being reduced by OPEC+ to push up the oil price - how long will this continue for?

We could simply get more of the same with just a marginal excess of supply over demand, especially as other forms of energy are adopted. I did look at biofuel production, but this could realistically not be increased enough to make a difference.

So, it seems very likely that we could get to a situation where demand exceeds supply - we have to believe the forecasts.

What would be the reaction, will politicians try to push prices down?, would they be able to make a difference?, would they want to make a difference?

In actual fact a price hike for oil could be a big benefit in the fight against climate change, so politicians would welcome it - it would enable expensive renewables to get a hold and then take over from oil as economies of scale kicked in.

So, yes we will get a big spike in Brent 0ver the next couple of years but it could be oils swan song.