Member Info for chilting

Its all down to OPEC+ at the moment Kraken - yesterdays meeting ended without agreement and they meet again on Monday.

Its only oil price stability that will make a difference to Enquest - if OPEC+ make this deal we should get that and with hedging in place, I think the SP will rise substantially this year and into 2022, especially if AB gives Pelle his dividend.

As I said in last nights post, North Sea Oil is vulnerable because of high production costs, so when it looks like Brent will start falling again because of oversupply, if it does, the SP will tumble back down again - hence my believe that investing in North Sea Oil is not a long term investment.

The simple fact is that North Sea Crude is around the most expensive to produce in the world, that very fact makes it vulnerable, so its hardly surprising that during the pandemic, when crude prices crashed, that AB was compelled to cease production at his most expensive to produce fields.

Currently, we are lucky that OPEC+ is manipulating crude prices by restricting supply because its in their interests to do so, but how long that will last is anyone's guess. Although on balance it is likely to continue.

So, what happens now - will demand increase to levels where supply cannot keep up with demand?

There are indications that there will be a supply shortage but that it is only likely to be fairly temporary and that US shale will mount a come back in 2022 at some point - who knows if this is true?

To be prudent, its important that AB does make every effort to reduce production costs to maintain viability, therefore, his actions to maintain production at Kraken, Magnus and Malaysia were the only way forward, and adding GE can only strengthen that strategy.

Still taking.
This is the Russian view -
https://tass.com/economy/1309981

More depth on the same subject here.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/070121-ceres-targets-solid-oxide-electrolyzers-for-hydrogen-in-industrial-processes-e-fuels

Also the SOEC Teach-in that the analysts and media viewed is still available to view here - login is free.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/ceres-power-holdings-plc/register-investor

Why not wait until next week when there will probably be a 6p gap - well that's the gamble anyway.

This is an interesting article originally from Reuters - well worth a read.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/analysis-oil-companies-bet-on-100-a-barrel-as-they-rush-to-sell-assets/84055105

Ocado is very much the odd one out on your list bitbybit - it seems to be the only growth company and the only tech company?

Woodford's investment strategy was certainly floored but he was good at picking out growth companies with potential.

I also invest in ITX, I have for about five years now, Woodford owned about a third of the company when his funds collapsed the SP was very badly affected.
Since then ITX have commercialised their product range and are heading towards profitability in much the same way as TRX are just starting to do. ITX's SP has risen from 1.27p in the last year to 10.9p today and has been up over 17p.

TRX has around 50% of its shares in free circulation, ITX has now reduced to around 20% with a lot of private investors holding long term positions.

As TRX becomes more profitable and revenue increases, I think that we will see more shares in sticky hands and that will be when the SP starts to rise and hopefully follow ITX - the potential is here but patience is required as always.

One thing next weeks results may give is more insight into how much revenue Ocado Solutions will receive on an ongoing basis from their overseas contracts.
If we see a hike in revenue here, that could make things very interesting long term.

That looks unlikely to happen - apparently some members are looking to increase their quota, including the UAE.

The problem is though, that electric cars and hydrogen powered cars need their own infrastructure for refuelling.
The infrastructure for electric vehicles is growing daily and it can just be a cable running from a plug in the garage.
For hydrogen vehicles the refilling points are few and far between and would need a massive investment to give a network.

We have to accept reality and look elsewhere for green hydrogen usage where Ceres technology can be used.

Here's where we are now - top meeting postponed until tomorrow 2nd July at 15.30GMT.

"Opec+ has postponed a decision on raising crude output quotas to tomorrow, after a UAE proposal to review all countries' production baselines saw the group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) end discussions without a policy recommendation.

The JMMC talks were initially set to be followed by a meeting of Opec+ ministers at 18:30 Vienna time (17:30 GMT) today. But the ministerial assembly has now been moved to 15:30 GMT tomorrow, 2 July, after the UAE's proposition threw a spanner in the works of what one delegate said "should have been a short meeting.""

Green hydrogen is deflating - currently nearly full with dishwasher tablets, hair gel and cat litter - soon to be bio plastic and fashion rags - then maybe human skin and in the future Andy Murrays other hip.

"LONDON/DUBAI/MOSCOW, July 1 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is moving towards gradually adding about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to the oil market from August to December, an OPEC+ source told Reuters as the group eases back on output curbs amid a recovering global economy and an oil price rally.

The source said monthly increases would amount to less than 0.5 million bpd. Another OPEC+ source said top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and top non-OPEC producer Russia had a preliminary agreement for a deal on easing output curbs from August."

Also talk of the output curbs being extended into 2022 with OPEC+ talking about an increase in supply next year, but being cynical this just seems like a way of maintaining high oil prices - either way its good news for Enquest.

Kraken
Just waiting on OPEC+ - after that SP could fly on a positive outcome - OO is to small to make a difference regarding SP - its now or never for a big push up towards 30p.
Lets see if AB's gamble pays off.

gkb
The only real downside here is if Brent reverses - that seems unlikely - the SP is so solidly undervalued that it can only go one way as Brent rises, regardless of what AB does, so to sell out now based on long term investment decisions would be rather foolish.

First of all we need a positive outcome from the OPEC+ meeting today - so far it looks it like white smoke rather than black - good news!

The news that Nissan is to expand in Sunderland and create 1650 jobs plus supply chain jobs is very welcome for the UK economy - also a electric battery production plant is to be built to supply the factory creating another 750 jobs.

I think that this really seals the deal for electric vehicles in the UK and any lingering hopes that we might see hydrogen powered cars are gone. Its not always the best technology that wins out as we have seen countless times in the past.

As for lorries and buses powered by hydrogen progressing - I think that will unfortunately depend on if battery technology can be developed for these vehicles rather than any advances in technology using hydrogen.

n1
I think the problem over the last few years is that the management have had to react to events rather than create their own agenda.

Now there are now signs that they will be able go ahead and build the business back to where it should be again based around the online offering at Ocado Retail and M&S.com with a strong food business and modern out of town and selected High Street stores.

I agree that there is still a lot to do, especially in clothing, and that we may yet see a lot more contraction on the High Street but as a five year investment M&S is certainly a good bet and they should be able to pay dividends again maybe next year, especially if they can sell off some of the surplus freehold town centre sites they own for residential development.

Yes, that is what would be expected, but is there actually any evidence that is the case?

After all Amazon, Boohoo and ASOS have no High Street presence.