Member Info for chilting

An interesting development here - the main man is standing down and handing the reins to his 31 year old future son in law.
I guess that makes the daughter the king maker? - not sure what will happen if she dumps her intended before the big day?

Unfortunately, I don't see any improvement in the short term, it could even get worst, but absolutely no reason to sell because the lack lustre performance is largely sentiment related and covers the whole of the equity market.

Actual market conditions are I think far better than the equity market is showing and eventually we will get a rapid turn in sentiment.

In the mean time sit back and count your losses, or a much better option, go on holiday.

The bottom line is that all the variables that the market uses to determine the oil price, including political pressure, are combining to hold the oil price more or less at its current level.

OPEC+ are probably happy to maintain this and political leaders, including Bidden, will do all they can to push it down a bit but the supply situation will win out and limit their power to act.

A mention for Itaconix today -

"The first half of 2021 also saw rapid growth in the value of our portfolio company Itaconix, reflecting good commercial progress for their expanding product set of functional ingredients that offer unique functionality, sustainability, and cost advantages in applications such as laundry detergents, auto dish wash pods, odour management products and hair styling. The company completed a placing to raise £1.1m at 12.1p per share in June 2021, with IP Group investing £250k."

Also IPO recorded a £3.9m paper gain in the value of their investment and five of their directors are individual shareholders in ITX.

More good news - even India is off the red list.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58079107

The Chinese had a working vaccine in peoples arms before we did - looking at news reports from China, they are at the stage where they are now moving on to vaccinate children, just like we are in the UK - the Chinese are not stupid, they know what they have to do to stop another major outbreak and as Jan confirms, their vaccine DOES work against the Delta Variant.

So this scare over reduced oil demand from the Chinese as a result of Covid is just a falsehood.

The Chinese vaccine may be less effective in stopping people getting the Delta variant but the most significant thing is that it does stop serious symptoms developing - so it seems that it is just as effective as the Western Vaccines from that point of view.

Also China have vaccinated a higher percentage of it population than the US so its unlikely that we will see an outbreak that has severe economic consequences, Oil demand is therefore unlikely to be affected.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/02/china/china-covid-delta-challenge-mic-intl-hnk/index.html

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2021-07-23/doc-ikqciyzk7110030.shtml

If there was a Covid outbreak in China, it would depend on what part of the country was affected.

It could do damage to the economy if it was in the high tech industrial south but elsewhere it would be more of a local issue.

At the moment, most of the southern cities are unaffected and nationally cases are very low. Also its far more likely that the population in the affluent southern industrial cities have been vaccinated, so assuming the Chinese vaccine is effective against the Delta Variant then the effects of even a widespread outbreak would be minimal.

I am not sure that M&S would exist after 5 years bedded in with Sainsbury's Neil.

Turning M&S around is achievable and its happening - adding the burden of turning Sainsbury's around would be far more than one step too far - Sainsbury's has failure imbedded in its DNA now, from top to bottom of the business.

e121
Yes, that could certainly happen but do we actually want it to happen?

A spike could actually do real damage to the market, increase inflation, and ultimately lead to a drop in demand that could create a nasty dip. It would also make the oil industry even more unpopular than it is now - that could give more problems.

It would be much better, if we saw an extended period with oil around the level it is now for the benefit of all.

The last three months have been very encouraging for the SP.

We haven't seen a big spike like we did at the beginning of March when the traders pilled in as Brent rose quickly, this time the response has been more measured.

Volume is very good, especially for the time of year, and has held up very well since the SP came to life at the end of May.

All the indications are that Enquest is attracting longer term investors now and that bodes well for the next step up towards 30p.

As far as I can make out todays RNS is related to this and not a conventional short.

https://www.clearygottlieb.com/~/media/organize-archive/cgsh/files/publication-pdfs/know-your-shareholders-the-use-of-cash-settled-equity-derivatives-to-hide-corporate-ownership-interests.pdf

Carrington
Yes, I agree but what I am saying is that I think they run long and short positions at the same time and just alter the balance between the two positions depending on what way they think the SP is heading - the fact that they are reducing the short at the moment would indicate that they think the SP will rise.

The actual facts are here - the Government has no plans to shut down the industry but it does expect the industry to clean up its act - all that the Government has asked the industry to do is totally achievable.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/north-sea-transition-deal/north-sea-transition-deal-accessible-webpage

Why would I want to do that onlypbc - Enquest are at a three month high and trending up - Tullow are at a three month low and swirling down the pan - odd!

Nation of Change isn't a media organisation, its a pressure group, but the information they report will be picked up by the media and given more exposure.

Going forward it does make a difference, our Government always bow to the media - apparently Johnson is obsessed by the influence of the media - so it will be important that the North Sea Oil Industry follows up with its commitments.

The most important commitment from Enquest's point of view is to cut down on oil production emissions - any slippage to the laid down timetable here will be jumped on by the environmentalists as a reason to shut down oil fields.

Looking at the charts, the SP has doubled in a year of very steady growth, however volume will need to pick up before we see another leg up - volume has been poor this summer - hopefully by Christmas we will have some idea of where the SP is heading.

Look on the bright side -
Moody's have upgraded Enquest using low production numbers of 49 kboepd plus Golden Eagle and with Brent averaging $55.
Enquest are likely to produce more and Brent is likely to exceed $55.
If they update on mediocre expectations then in reality actual prospects are even better.

Surfie
All we can do at the moment is focus on the positives and be thankful that most of the negatives are AIM related rather than company related.