Member Info for chilting

Aloj
It certainly is, but some politicians always make bad decisions to counter their short term difficulties - especially media obsessed Johnson.

Current production certainly isn't at risk, its new field development that could be affected.

At the end of the day the success or otherwise of COP26 will be gauged partly on how much pain the policy plan inflicts on fossil fuel producing countries and companies.

That will depend on the political will of world leaders and how much they push for actual change rather than just rhetoric.

Its difficult to see China giving way on coal imports, just as it is on Canada giving way on tar oil and Brazil on deforestation, so progress is likely to be limited, but that means that easier targets for token change, like North Sea Oil could be sacrificed.

mrc
Then that creates a new dilemma - how can the world community expect Indonesia and Australia to take a big hit in lost revenue from coal exports if the pain isn't shared equally with other fossil fuel producing countries?

ITX is certainly oversold and with the thin market, I think that there are enough investors ready to buy in and start to slowly push the SP back up again, but it usually takes a couple of weeks at least for the air to clear after a big drop so I am not 100% sure that we will be pushing back positive just yet.

romaron
Just for the record - I have never said anything positive about heat pumps - personally I think they are inefficient and expensive.

I do admit that i floated the idea of adding hydrogen to the mains but I think you are probably correct that this is a non starter. If hydrogen does have a role to play it will probably only be used for generating electricity in a power station or for powering heavy industry, steel production for example.

As you say Enquest is now in an excellent position for the short to medium term and it will be business as usual with Brent looking like it will stay around the current level.

Long term it will depend on politicians like Johnson, he will be under a lot of pressure with COP26 in the autumn and the new Cambo field has given all the opposition the gift of a target to attack.

That puts question mark over new field development - will oil companies take the risk of exploration and development if they cannot be sure they will be able to go into production?

nick
This is also an interesting development in nuclear tech by the Chinese.

https://www.livescience.com/china-creates-new-thorium-reactor.html

I don't doubt existing fields will continue to operate.

Its the new fields like Cambo that are under pressure - if question marks are raised about their future then oil companies will think twice when it comes to exploration and development, even if Cambo does eventually get the go ahead.

Cheapshareboy
Ocado Retail plan to reopen Andover and a a new CFC at Purfleet later this summer, into Autumn and another mini CFC at Bicester next year - all this will increase capacity by 50% - more CFC are planned for 2023.

Full picture is here -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZx7PRAN7Gk&list=PL_ch00M8hFvq0r9kclH3rOPGNkAvKCoIc

If it was just about environmentalists, Johnson would have it easy, but 80% of the UK population are concerned about climate change and want to see action.

Cambo gives all the opposition something to aim at, if it is halted it creates a precedent and the knock on effect is bad news for the whole of the North Sea Oil industry.

https://news.sky.com/story/cop26-sir-keir-starmer-accuses-boris-johnson-of-being-missing-in-action-ahead-of-climate-change-summit-as-row-brews-over-north-sea-oil-field-12372570

mrc
I am simply trying to predict how Johnson will react and doing so from a neutral position - he is very pliable.

I don't think that Johnson's skills as a politician are in doubt - he clearly excels in that regard.

What is in question is the decisions he makes, and the same really applies to all our political leaders, their decisions are for their political benefit rather than for the nation.

That is why this is a dangerous period for North Sea Oil, with climate change the central issue for many and a world summit that he is hosting at the end of the year - Cambo has given all the opposition something to aim at - not good news!

Volume is tiny today just 134,554 at the moment.

The point needs to be make that even at this level the SP isn't showing weakness.

It was Covid that pulled the SP up last year and earlier this year and the huge business opportunity that it exposed.

Without the Covid influence, based on the 5 year chart, the SP would probably still have been around what it is now.

The onus is now on Ocado to prove that it can deliver, as soon as it does that the SP will reach new heights, not by promise but by actual results.

The very fact that our political system doesn't produce technocrat leaders will always result in random policy decisions.

Leaving Europe will probably make the position more fluid because it gives our leaders more freedom to act.

What we do know is that Johnson is easily influenced by the media - he was a media man - so expect anything! - he will be swayed by everyone from Rishi Sunak to Greenpeace and probably try to satisfy them all.

Johnson under fire for Shell's new Cambo Field - his response is not exactly reassuring for the North Sea Oil Industry.

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-says-north-sea-contracts-cant-be-ripped-up-but-uk-needs-to-transition-as-fast-as-we-reasonably-can-from-oil-and-gas-12373646

On line international is a completely different beast to stores overseas - much cheaper and easier to set up - I guess that they use a logistics partner to process and dispatch orders - main market would probably be British expats - nice little earner trading on the M&S brand.

it will certainly be an interesting watch this year to see what action is taken - nations will be expected to give ground and make cuts.

Canada - tar oil, - Australia - coal, US - shale oil and gas, China - pollution levels, Brazil - deforestation, Germany - coal use - the list goes on.

Personally, I think that we are all in for a massive shock on Monday and the need to act will be compelling.

Thankfully, the North Sea Oil Industry is, with a push, well placed not just to do its bit, but to actually profit to a considerable extent from the situation because carbon capture will be on the agenda and there will be plenty of big corporations and governments willing to pay to remove carbon and pump it into spent oil wells.

It will be brace, brace, brace on Monday when the UN Climate Change Report is published - an update on the last one that was published in 2013 - that could go a long way to deciding the long term global future of the oil industry and give much more clarity of where we are heading.

The challenge to North Sea Oil companies is to back up their environmental commitments with action and also make a positive contribution to combatting climate change. If they can do that, then they will thrive while other players around the world are forced to cease production.

mrc
It doesn't matter, simply because OPEC+ are managing the oil supply as we move away from Covid - OPEC+ are taking the hit.

Hopefully, Brent bounced off $70 this morning - the Q3 range could now be $70 -$75 - rather better than the $65-$70 I was expecting.

Not sure that we can hope for that at the moment Smartinvestment.

The whole market is rather low in sentiment at the moment, although I think it is overdone, and until that changes we could see some more downside.

When we do see an upturn and I think it will be rapid when it happens, I think ITX will rise strongly again.