Member Info for chester18

Morning All

I am concerned why the SP has stalled and yet Lombard Odier Asset Management continue to increase their position.
So I decided to look at some fundamentals to see if we can make sense of where we are and what will change the current sentiment. So here go's... "bare with" as they say .........

September 18th 2020 :

Market Cap. £26m - Cash in the Bank approx £12.45m ( £1.25m Cash burn since June 30th Report ).
1/2 Year Sales or Turnover to 30th June £6.1m with an operating loss of £2.5m
Current Margin = 48% so 1/2 year generated income approx £3.0m = Share Price 0.37p

In very rough terms our Sales Generated Income is £6.0m pa and the cost to operate the business is £10m = £ 4.0m loss pa.

The cash raised at the end of May 2020 was intended for the following :
£1.1m First Phase of the New Facility 'Fit Out' in San Antonio
£4.0m Second Phase ---------------- " -------------------
£1.9m R&D
£5.0m Working Capital

On this basis the company needs to build the turnover very rapidly as the £5.0m working capital would be consumed by this time next year. Obviously that would only happen if sales stayed flat.
So the target must be for full year 2020 a minimum of say £15m ( Revenue = £7.2m Loss = £2.8m ) less any savings from the company's move to Garforth, Leeds, in November 2020 ( £400k pa ).

So if the final year 2020 sales reach £15m producing a loss of £2.8m the Share Price should reflect that improvement and move to approximately 0.86p per share.

2021 :

New Facility San Antonio fitted out mid year.
Move to Garforth saving £400k pa
Full year Sales / Turnover needs to reach £20m Cost to run the business say rising to £11m pa
Income generated from £20m = £9.6m showing a yearly loss of £2.4m
A 2021 turnover of £24m = £11.5m income and therefore a potential £500k profit.
SP should reflect and be between 1.0p and 1.5p per share.

Gavin said with the full facility running in San Antonio the Sale figure could be £30m pa ++ especially if the 'White Label' supply agreement with a 'Global Healthcare Provider' is moving into full gear.

This post is just my dig into the fundamentals and I hope it is a fair representation of the facts.
I'm sure there are some other interpretations but its intention is to shine some light on why a large investor is very happy to keep on hoovering up loose shares at this current price.
PI's need to sit on their hands.

Chester.

Morning

Before this rise happened I adjudged some price targets that I thought were sustainable at that time we were at 8.5p ish.

Covidity Funding Announced 12.0p
News on the outstanding Mabs research collaboration. 15.0p
Lab data from Covidity with Trial application details 17.0p

These were what I considered reachable and stable levels allowing for the churn and the undoubted 10% traders.

So in my world we are solidly on track. It keeps me sane .......
Please don't ask for the algorithm that was used as it is just my gut feeling having been in Scancell for a few years.

Chester.

Hi BOJO2020

Thank you, I read up on many other companies and pick very few, but DNL just stood out. My hope is that the confidence shown by Eton getting out in front of the FDA decision and the Hardman Report being quietly confident that the decision seems to be a dotting the i's and crossing the t's exercise, is well founded. Being new to the share I feel I'm taking a calculated risk in buying in at this price level. Even so I have confidence that DNL is going to grow rapidly over the next 2 years.

Also news over in SCLP would be nice to hear.

Chester.

@PhilBanks

Thanks for that, I remember now, Olav spoke about the Exosomes collaborations towards the end of the Webinar in July 'Preliminary Results'.

I'm going to listen to the whole thing again as there were some comments about those three Exosomes collaborations that would be good to hear again. Also help me get my facts straight.

Chester.

Onceaday

Well when you put it like that, I take back my presumption that Rene can go it alone.
The only chance would be if they did some huge deals on the Exosomes and had the cash to plough on.

The truth is we all expect that a successful Ph2a ( with all the enhanced data due to subtle trial changes ) will attract quite a few Big Pharma suitors.

One thing I'm expecting in the next two months is an update on the Exosomes proof of concept laboratory mouse models. Didn't Micheal Hunt say that was a priority getting that proof of concept so they could move from collaborations to signed agreed deals.

Chester.

Hi Crackin

Thank you for that insight, I have some shares in GGP and at one point the chartist were saying something about a Golden Cross and getting very excited by the consequences, I didn't have a clue what they were on about. The price continued up so it must have indicated there was gold in them there hills.

I'm still motivated by the research, as with Scancell its not just the science but the potential and reach. During our long journey from 2012 we've seen that potential change for the better as the words 'Cancer and Vaccine' are now heralded which is a big change from 10 years ago. We all have our way of weighing the pros and cons and if charts give you some edge then all well and good.

Let me know if you see any Golden Crosses on them SCLP charts.......

Chester.

Hi Crackin

I have never learnt how to use charts but I realise they can indicate trends like 'overbought' or the 'bottom / top' of a surge. I can understand a chart being very helpful on a FTSE 100 company because there are so many individual trades that patterns can emerge with analysis like charts.

How confident are you in the charts being accurate when used on a company in the current situation as Scancell ?

Plus, the quick pull back from 18p to 14.4p how does that get absorbed by the charts as it seems to me that the charts wouldn't cope with that kind of severity
?

These are genuine questions I'm not trying to trip you up I am just genuinely interested.

Chester.

scoredagainsteps

Big decision on the watch you must be convinced. I'm normally in a company at the early stages but I can see all the years of work by DNL to this point and I don't mind paying the 60p because a lot of the 'what ifs' have been dealt with.

Time will tell but I am assured by the details in the Hardman report and as I said reading back on this board has also helped. I just hope that the FDA give the green light as that does open up all the positives for a great 2021 and beyond.

Thank you, the three reply's have really helped me.

Chester.

HunSen

Thank you for your input. When I read that Eton had made the decision to act as the approval was a done deal and take in stock ready to launch I thought that was a very clear signal. Partly why I've bought the shares I have. Given that the decision is positive it really does set up 2021 to be a very exciting year.

Thank you for the note about the presentation tomorrow.

Chester.

Hi L0ngterm

Yes I noticed that Richard Griffiths was a share holder, he has taken a 12% slice of TRX that I hold. Some on that board said RG does like to buy in early and then leave once he feels there is another opportunity to see high multiple growth he's off. Maybe he likes his money doubled to trebled as quickly as possible.

Does seem a shame when there is good news about to happen.

I do think DNL have everything set up to create good yearly growth and profits.

thank you for you response

Chester.

I have just made my first purchases of DNL after reading some of the recent posts on here and the Hardman Report from 20th August. I really like all the fundamentals and feel its a good time to invest for the longer term.

I am puzzled as to why there is so much appetite to sell when the announcement from the FDA is a main part of the critical path towards growth and the success of the Eton deal.

Because I am so new to the share I find it strange that there is not a stronger air of excitement so it leads me to wonder if there is something I don't appreciate in the details of the upcoming decision day, which means there is a concern that its not going to happen !

Could someone on the board give me a heads up as to what would currently motivate sells.

I would really appreciate some reply's, thank you.

Chester.

( If you wish to check my background I am mostly on, SCLP, GGP, TRX and RENE )

Thank you Ray

Glad you found that because it means I haven't lost my marbles, Yet........ : )

Chester.

Surprised2

What are you referring to ?

Chester

Hi WTP

The initial announcement in September 2019 said :

"We are pleased to be able to report significant progress on our monoclonal antibody pipeline, having only licensed the technology into the company just over a year ago from the University of Nottingham. Our first collaboration and evaluation agreement with one of the major players in the antibody development field is a significant achievement in such a short period of time and we believe our novel AvidiMab™ enhanced cell killing platform has broad partnering potential."

So that said 'Major Player' but somewhere in the deep recesses of my mind ( some would say the shallows ) I think they were referred to as a 'Global' company. It may just be me 'Miss-Remembering' like they do in US politics but it may have been said in an interview, if someone else recalls it would help get the facts right.

Chester.

FreddieBoy

I hope you are taking advantage of this current dip.

Cannot see the buy price getting much lower, even when the lockdown happened in March the SP to sell only reach 73p,
I would be very surprised if we reached those depths. I would be surprised but I would also be buying the maximum I could.

Looking to next year even if Rene have to rise funds to complete the 'RP Pivotal Study' on their own ( which I very much doubt ) they will only need to raise £10 / £15m. Once the FDA approved the treatment that would be seen to be a small price to pay considering the potential in the US alone.

Chester.

Bound to happen ...

The SP has risen on a change of sentiment, rumour and a modicum of publicity.
This has probably attracted traders who see Scancell as the perfect vehicle to sell into the recent rise and buy on any subsequent dips. The rise to 18p was great news but wasn't sustainable on its own.
Once our much awaited deal done news happens this rise can be seen as establishing a good base to move forwards from.

Our first deal could be quite modest, someone quite ( Crumbs or Ivy I think ) rightly pointed out that the size of the first deal is not as important as actually getting that first deal across the line. Once we have signed up a global player it will cause plenty of real interest in what our Mabs can offer many more companies in the Antibodies space.

Chester.

Dalester

Excellent posts........

Chester

Hi Bobbust

It's always the case that some will sell for all sorts of reasons. The unprecedented times we live in means that we are all a bit unsure about how the pandemic is going to play out. This rise has been amazing and it needs to stabilise before the next leg up.

It is funny how the same thing happens over and over on many different shares, I suppose its just human behaviour in action.

Once the news starts to flow from Scancell it will reassure us all, bring in some more new Private Investors and then the best will be when the Institutional Investors start to get a sniff of the future potential.

If the price settles for breather so be it because its taken my breath away going from 8.2p on the 1st Sept to the high of 18p today.

ATB

Chester.

Hi C7

Well done for keeping the faith, what a turn-a-round in just 4 weeks, "isn't a booming share price brilliant" ........ : ) : )

We have some very important price milestones coming up in quick succession. Obviously the number one is the finer details of our first Mabs licence agreement. What will be the scope of that deal and what will the commercial consequences mean for Scancell.

The second, probably an announcement on the Lab data from the Covidity research as to where they are with the trial submission details.

Third will be some news about the SCIB1 / Keytruda trial, when its going to be restarted and where in the UK have we signed up to conduct the trials other than Nottingham of course.

Forth will be news about MODI1 trial planning, again where, by whom and when.

Then towards the end of January 2021 we have the other Mabs tie up reaching its 12 month decision time and if we have not heard by then its likely that BionTech may finally step up.

So plenty to keep pushing the Share Price if it is all good news.

Chester.

I am so pleased that so many long term holders are actually back in the black and those not there yet it seems you only need to hold on just a matter of weeks, especially when we are told the size and range of the pending Mabs deal that should push on to the figures you guys need. Good luck.

I count myself as fortunate because I put over 50% of my investment into Scancell and I believed these days would arrive and now there here I'm a bit speechless at the veracity of the rise. I would have expected 17p to be breached after the deal news had landed.

Don't forget "Scancell doesn't need to go anywhere because the other side of the River is coming to Them"

Chester.