Member Info for chester18

Thank you

This is a discussion board where all views are welcome as long as they are well considered and any comments backed up with some form of intellectual process.

At the 'end of the day' we ultimately want to see our investment rise and part of that journey is to understand the thing we have invested in. Scancell is going through some massive changes as we speak. The BOD have probably yearned to be able to check the bank account and see security for the next two years.
What we need is to try and understand the dynamics of this 'knee jerk' extra £30m.

As I keep saying something change to bring that amount of funding so soon after the first placing. I just can't accept that it formed another step in a pre-considered strategy and what is also puzzling is why at 13p. If they always intended to put in another big chunk a few pence here or there does not matter. A placing at 16p or 18p would have sent out a clear message that Scancell is the share to own, but no keep a lid on it and go for 13p, drag the price back a bit, it doesn't stack up if it was all part of a considered investment plan just to ensure that Redmile didn't own to many shares.

Chester.

Hi WTP

My thought process follows some simple facts and extrapolates to what has motivated Redmile to look at a small £24m MCap British Biotech. They are a well know and well respected Bio Investment Fund that aids and nurtures early Biotechs and ultimately passes them on to major pharma once the technology has been proven up or at least looks very likely to pass phase 3 and become approved.

Point 1 , Scancell ( Prof. Lindy Durrant ) has never shown interest in selling the business just for a quick buck. Our BOD are aware of how big the impact will be if MODI1 destroys four different solid tumours in the first two or three months of our first human trial.

Point 2 , BionTech know Scancell very well and have had the opportunity to get a good look inside the science. BionTech are very close to Genentech who are ultimately owned by Roche.

Point 3 , Due to previous failures and ill advised purchases Big Pharma do prefer to pay a premium for a de-risked investments but it has to be in the right technology at the right time.

( Cancer Vaccines were a definitely a 'no no' 10 years ago but are now on the verge of being the new 'have to have' tech for Big Pharma ).

Point 4 , It is Redmile's 'raison d'etre ' is to provide the bridge ( in terms of cash investment ) to help small innovative early Biotechnology companies become the proven de-risked low hanging fruit that Big Pharma are able to purchase.

Point 5 , Redmile probably approached Scancell already knowing what their end game was and who they would tie the other end of the deal to. Nothing they do will be in isolation there will be no 'wing and a prayer' to any of their investment decisions.

My conclusion : if there is an unseen hand at work, we should not be surprised if its someone who knows the company well. For example Genentech Roche

Chester.

We should not be surprised if and when we understand the true force behind the current funding turns out to be Genentech Roche......!!

Chester.

All the discussions around Redmile, Vulpes, BionTech and let's include Genentech Roche for good measure. All of these are connected through 'Project Blueprint', 'TCR's', MODI1 & 2, Mabs including AvidiMab, Glycan Mabs and FG2811.

Vulpes took 12 months to fully analyse and understand what Scancell had discovered. Vulpes know how to bring in the larger funding, take Oxford Biomedica for one example. Vulpes may have already had dealings with Redmile but we know for certain that BionTech know Redmile.

So this new relationship has not been just Redmile taking a fancy to a British Biotech its all in the round, Vulpes and BionTech have more than likely advised Redmile that Scancell could be sitting on a set of fully patented and protected potential 'Blockbuster' cancer vaccine platforms and technologies.

Maybe Vulpes had a big hand in it but I don't know if they knew of Redmile from past dealings or their relationship has come about over the past 12 months via Scancell and BionTech.

The pandemic and our involvement in 'Covidity' has most definitely played its part and there is a real chance that Scancell could develop from this not only a very successful 2nd generation Covid Vaccine but also a better way of arming the immune system against many more viruse. Plus it would be delivered using the newly developed 'Covidity' delivery platform.

Also, the Karolinska University are working on Auto-Immune diseases and were very keen to do a research collaboration using Scancells discoveries, we are unaware how that collaboration is going but if by understanding how Immunobody or Moditope pathways are the keys to upping the immune system, Karolinska may be able reverse engineer those pathways and discover how to calm an over aggressive immune system reaction, that in itself could develop into a huge range of thearepies.

Having been patiently waiting for over 7 years I do think we will, very shortly, see the name of Scancell become much more widely known.

Chester.

Hiya Ray

who's on filter ?

Chester.

Other than on the news last night I've not heard anything about this particular vaccine.

Where is Inanaco when you need him !!!!

Chester.

Thanks Ruck

It will be interesting to see how the SP reacts after the General Meeting and we have £50m in the bank.

Chester.

Totally agree, I don't see any negatives to having the funds for making the Clinical Trials a reality. We should be a little wiser once we've had the AGM.

Q : Has anyone worked out exactly how many shares will there be when all the Convertable Loan Notes have been fully diluted ?

Chester.

Hi C7

We don't know for sure but I'm going to take some convincing that it was always Redmile's intention. Something changed between the 27th August and the decision to stump up this second traunch of cash.

Lets hope they play fair at the AGM and explain exactly how this set of circumstances came about. We'll see.......

Speaking of the AGM any idea what is the latest date allowed ?

Chester.

Hi crumbs

Do you not think that if and when positive data is announced and a major pharma does become interested that it will be Redmile that instigates and drives any negotiations. I thought that was their 'raison d'etre'.

Chester.

I'm not convinced about Redmile deliberately putting in £17m knowing they wanted to raise the SP to put in another £50m. They would have been better advised to put the whole lot in one go at 8.6p. The SP at the time was floating around 6.5 to 7.5p so it would have been a positive move being approx a 25% hike to the SP.

Cliff Holloway on the 27th August was not giving off any vibe other than 'we are going to sign our first deal very shortly'.

Now something has changed, no deal but another £30m, and why at 13p why not 16p or 18p. Also if they knew they wanted to put in more right at the start why wait for 13p ?? This idea that Redmile are in control of events just doesn't make sense to me.

Redmile have either had a board meeting and decided that they want to get serious with Scancell to help grow the value of the science, ready for a major to sweep down once the Data shows positive action of our Platforms.

or

Something new has happened in the labs where Redmile are now compelled to fund Scancells technologies.

This is without doubt a progressing story not just the next move of a pre-conceived strategy.

Chester.

Just shows how 'Left Field' this extra £30m funding is, that we are all making our best guesses at why.

One thing that we need to understand and that is :
'What Changed' between the first placing with Redmile and the following two months ? They have definitely not done it out of pity or on the back of a punt.

The Cobra agreement means that the Covidity Team are convinced they have the correct formulation, so that means the results in the labs must show that the Cv-19 Virus is being targeted and destroyed. Is that the reason?

Has the fully completed and Conjugated Drug for MODI1 been put through further lab trials and Redmile are now convinced that the age of the Cancer Vaccine is Nigh ?

Did the Glycan Mabs / AvidiMab discussions raise very positive results but needs some delivery process developments which will make it a must have add-on to any Mab in any setting ?

We don't know the answer, but we do know that the £30m says, Scancell we believe in your platforms and here is adequate funding to see the commencement of four Clinical Trials and giving you enough time to bring in the Data Sets that will prove one way or the other how effective they are.

Well I'm convinced ...... : )

Chester.

I think you are missing one aspect of holding as many shares as you can. Obviously you need to have some confidence in the journey ahead. My view on Scancell is that the SP will reach different levels as we move forward towards each of the trials producing Clinical DATA, so I have built up a holding where I can ( making up levels, these as an example only ) sell 25% at say 50p another 25% at £1.00 and still leave me with a substantial amount of shares as we move forward. I would not mind being in a position where I could sell part of my long held investment to pay down some bills but still hold enough to enjoy the journey towards Phase 2 Trials or a substantial buy out.

We all have our own way of investing, I suppose mine is a too risky for some but my confidence in Scancell comes from what they have already achieved with the SCIB1 initial trial, their constant striving for the best possible trial outcomes, all the Intellectual Property that has been built up over the years, plus all the Patents either in place or 'Pat. Pending' and the range and depth of the many and various platforms.

As has been said on this board many times, Scancell are the experts when it comes to understanding how to achieve the best possible 'Binding' when engaging the immune system.

Once this Open Offer is behind us the share price will move forward to reflect the progress towards three clinical trials in 2021 maybe it could be 4 trials if they bring on SCIB2 and also the good amount of cash in the bank.

As I say we all do it our own way and that's the point of investing, good research, patience and a good reward when 'your' strategy works.

Chester.

Hi MetalTiger

This post is from the 28th September but still largely relevant.

I decided to look at some fundamentals to see if we can make sense of where we are and what will change the current sentiment. So here go's.............

September 28th 2020 :
Market Cap. £24m - Cash in the Bank approx £12.45m ( £1.25m Cash burn since June 30th Report ).
1/2 Year Sales or Turnover to 30th June £6.1m with an operating loss of £2.5m
Current Margin = 48% so 1/2 year generated income approx £3.0m = Share Price 0.35p

In very rough terms our Sales Generated Income ( Profit ) is £6.0m pa and the cost to operate the business is currently £10m = £ 4.0m loss pa.

The cash raised at the end of May 2020 was intended for the following :
£1.1m First Phase of the New Facility 'Fit Out' in San Antonio
£4.0m Second Phase ---------------- " -------------------
£1.9m R&D
£5.0m Working Capital

On this basis the company needs to build the turnover very rapidly as the £5.0m working capital would be consumed by this time next year. Obviously that would only happen if sales stayed flat and there is no increase in operating profits.
So the target must be for full year 2020 a minimum of say £15m ( Revenue = £7.2m Loss = £2.8m ) less any savings from the company's move to Garforth, Leeds, in November 2020 ( £400k pa ).

So if the final year 2020 sales reach £15m producing a loss of £2.8m the Share Price should reflect that improvement and move to reflect the improvement to somewhere near 0.86p per share. That full year information will be RNS'ed in June 2021.

2021 :

New Facility San Antonio fitted out mid year.
Move to Garforth saving £400k pa
Full year Sales / Turnover needs to reach £20m Cost to run the business say rising to £11m pa
Income generated from £20m = £9.6m showing a yearly loss of £1.4m

If the 2021 turnover reaches £24m = £11.5m income (48% margin) same cost to run the business of £11.0m and therefore creating a potential £500k profit.
The SP should then reflect and be between 1.0p and 1.5p per share. ( Again after published accounts in June 2022 )
Gavin Jones ( Interim CEO ) said that with the full facility running in San Antonio the Sale figure could be £30m pa ++ especially if the 'White Label' supply agreement with a 'Global Healthcare Provider' is moving into full gear.

This post is just from my investigation into the fundamentals and I hope it is a fair representation of the facts.
I'm sure there are some other interpretations but its intention is to shine some light on why the large Institutional and Private Investors are very happy to keep on hoovering up loose shares at this current price ( 0.33p to 0.35p ).

From what I have read Richard Griffiths is a private investor who is a very savvy bloke.
It would seem that he does a lot of due diligence into the companies he invests in.
From what little I have read, once his investment has reached the required % increase he tends to cash in and pursue the next oppor

With regards to tomorrows 'Full Year Accounts Report' it would be appreciated if they could fill in the blanks on a few things, for example what changed regarding the first MABs deal.

If its tightly a worded announcement and covers only the necessary details for last years accounts they may be holding back what they know for the AGM.

As I say, it would be nice to hear some details tomorrow.

Chester.

Hi C7

It looks like its just an adjustment to their % holding due to the extra Redmile shares.

Chester.

Thanks Phil

I'm hopeful that MH will be able to lift the mood on RENE.
An RNS on the morning of the 29th giving an update on the Ph2b RP trial would be a very welcome read.

Chester.

Hi Dillion2019

I'm sure that the onsite guys will know if what they are bringing up is just rock and I'm sure if GGP wanted some thing fast tracked through the labs it would happen. The delay at the labs is not a good enough reason in my eyes to justify the current radio silence, very unlike GH.

Chester.

Trying to understand the dynamics of so far not releasing information on the Scallywag cores that have been assessed.

On the one hand :

If the drill results are nothing to shout about why keep that 'Material' info back at the moment, there doesn't seem to be any good reason why that would happen. GH and CB will know exactly what is being found and they will know if it is bad where they have drilled they can do down the hole surveys to see in all directions to confirm if their initial core findings are typical for the surrounding mineralisation.

So if it is bad they would most likely have said by now because it is of 'Material Value' to us shareholders and it would not make sense to hold that back. Get it out of the way before the Newcrest Quarterly.

On the Other Hand :

What if, what they are seeing is good grades in either gold or copper. The only reason not to shout from the roof tops 'We've Done It Again' is if they are already having discussions with Newcrest and that 'Material Knowledge' is being held back until a joint statement can be announced. So I'm suggesting that Newcrest might just be in the process of being given their first refusal, that would definitely hold up the release.

It would also go towards explaining the current 'Radio Silence' and the switch from GH to CB at yesterdays Diggers and Dealers!

Chester.

Good close of the day 0.38p it does feel like we could see 0.39p this week........ : )

It will be interesting to see how the buys/sells stack up once we go over 0.4p, will it retrace or get stronger ?

Chester.