Member Info for CHEQUEMATE

Good evening folks. I came across the following this evening when reading the NT blog: Here's a tale of two issues. Charles Dickens missed that title somehow. I examined both new issues carefully. It didn't take long for me to figure out I really wanted to buy one but definitely not the other one. They both make roughly the same amount of profit but one has floated at way higher a price than the other. Definitely not: Fever Tree. I was disappointed. The company makes brilliant upmarket soft drinks. They do an amazing tonic water. I wanted to buy shares some but.... Fever Tree made profits of £5.8m last year. It's valued at £190m at 170p. That's way at the top of the tree of a valuation for me. After all that's over 30 x profits. Now it's a great little company and the next profits will be higher than that but I think unlikely to be enough to merit the current value. Contrast with Quartix. (QTX) Profits 4.6m last time judged on half year likely to do about the same as fever tree soon and I reckon somewhere in the near £6m profit mark. Valued at 54m at 116p now 67m at 147p. Now that is more like it. Floated at under 12x profit. I wish I had been in at the float price but I ended up buying quite a few at 138.8 and tucked some more away around the price as I write about 147. QTX looks to have plenty of growth potential and I liked the way all its financial figures were in the float document. It has a small net debt but profits and revenue have risen nicely every year over the last 3. So, I have bought QTX and ignored FEVR. I've bought Quartix then on a one year view, maybe longer targetting a 50-100% increase. Patience should pay off with this one. Always a good read and worth doing some research on the back of any companies mentioned. I hadn't heard of QTX previously. Share price likely to rise tomorrow on the back of the above article. Regards and good luck CM

Taken from todays' blog: Hayward Tyler reported yesterday, nice set of results and continues to look very cheap. A spot of profit taking perhaps but I am thinking about getting some more. Has to be good news from Robbie Burns. Always an interesting read. For those who don't know of NT, worth a visit to Nakedtrader.co.uk and reading his book "How anyone can make profits investing in shares". Easy read, to the point, thoroughly recommended. Regards CM

Not sure the business model is similar. However, I hadn't thought about that. Interesting thought though. As long as REDDE doesn't DO a QPP!. Regards CM

Hello D. Glad your other investments are doing ok. I'm not a fan of shorting as you know, but, hey, if you can do it and make a buck or two, well, then, you're not doing anything illegal. Fact is, shorting has been going on for far longer than most investors realise, just hadn't been made so public previously. I can't short with the accounts I have, and would have to use a different broker. It surprises me just how far a share can fall, even when we think it can't fall much further; fact is, oh yes it can. Same works the other way too. Which is why many investors are afraid to invest in a share which is at its year high, thinking it can't go much higher and would rather invest in a share near or at its' year low, thinking it can't go much lower. I am of the mindset right at this present moment, thinking I can't do right for doing wrong!. If I buy, the share falls, if I then sell, it then rises!. We've all been there of course; it rather knocks ones confidence though. At least with CLL, I can very largely switch off and let it be. RNSs here seem to be few and far between; not sure when any update is due. No civil war here, yo!. Regards CM

On the 9 October ELB stated the following: Ewan Lloyd-Baker, CEO of Hayward Tyler, commented: "Given the visibility we now have, and the ongoing positive outlook for new orders, the Board is confident in the Group's ability to at least achieve current market expectations for the full year." I suppose we are only looking at the interims, however, I had hoped to read something a lot more positive than what was in todays report. Rather underwhelmed I'm afraid and therefore not entirely surprised the day ended red, all be it off the day low. As far as Finncap's price target goes, well, with any brokers note, I find it no more than of interest only. I have seen too many in the past which pushes a far too enthusiastic, optimistic opinion and would certainly never invest on the back of it (made that mistake to my cost elsewhere previously). I see no mention in the interims any statement that "the group is well placed to exceed full year expectations". Had that been the case there would most definitely been an uplift in the share price. At least the share price ended close to where it closed yesterday. Not expecting fireworks with HAYT. Regards and good luck CM

Good to see you back. This board is very quiet, a good sign. Should it ever become like some other deliberately unnamed sites, then I'll sell up and move on!. Under the radar here for the time being. For the time being at least, I can sleep easy with this one. Hope other investments are doing well (same thought for all here). Regards CM

Hope things are brighter for you BT than a few weeks ago. I remain on the sidelines here, keeping GBG on my watchlist. Trading update due towards the end of the month. Regards CM

Hi DE. Re OPAY, yeap, think it is a good idea to hold off just for now before investing. I like to see a confirmation of change in direction/trend before investing, or there is a danger of investing on nothing more than a bounce. I haven't looked at their website so I will try and make time to look into it. Thanks for mentioning it. No rush. And if I/we do miss the boat on this one, well, there will be another that comes along in time. SEE - I have no particular thoughts on it enough for me to invest in on the back of it. Certainly it has the potential to go places. Just may be a little early in its development at present for me. Sure, that may mean I will miss out on the big time if it takes off, but there is no guarantee with this (nor any share) that it will take off, and I would rather play more cautiously. My risk appetite has declined as I have got older. I have had too many burnt fingers in the past. OPG rose today largely on the back of a buy recommendation in the weekends Telegraph. I set a buy order at 107p, just in case it was marked down first thing. It didn't activate. It may, or may not, retrace a little over the next few days. It is usually not a good idea to invest on the back of a tip in the weekend papers because the market makers will have read it and are likely to mark the price up first thing. Subsequently, the price often retraces a little over the course of the next few days. I will keep an eye on things and possibly reset my buy order. Again no rush. If a share is worth investing in today, it usually will be tomorrow and the next day. QPP - hope you haven't got hit there. Back to where it was in old money terms from when I first invested in it some years ago. Wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, especially as there are so many other far better prospects out there. Some folk are losing more on there than my house is worth!. Naked Trader - makes it sound easy?. Yes, he probably does. I don't think investing needs to be difficult; much of it is common sense and taking the time to research. Greed is where the problem comes in, looking for a fast buck and knowing when to sell up and get out, especially if we are making a loss. He talks a lot of common sense. If only all investors would read his book and take notice. Zulu Principle - I learnt a great deal from the book. It transformed my investment success. Not such an easy read as the NT; a lot of very important and pertinent points made all the same. A little dated with the copy I have, written before the internet, a lot of talk about ones broker. The basic principles remain the same though. HAYT - update tomorrow after a good rise today. Still trying to not dwell on the past. Will have a look tomorrow before work and may set a buy limit to add to my holding. Hope jj went well. Regards CM

Update due tomorrow, Tuesday, not today Monday. Mistake in e-mail sent to me in Guardian Weekend Press and Week Ahead Report. Lets see what happens with the share price in advance. Regards CM

Interims due tomorrow. Should be interesting. Hoping for a good day. Think you may have had your tree shake on Friday morning DE. Regards CM

Very good DE. I can see you doing very well with your investment strategy. You have some good disciplines there. Very interesting to see you starting with a small amount, very similar to me. It may seem peanuts to some but each to their own and you risk less should the share price head South. Same with stop losses. I have had a stop loss execute today on TW. which I only invested in yesterday!, sometimes that happens. I could see the price heading down even on good news from other building stocks; that is not a good sign. At least it has left me with some capital to invest elsewhere. OPAY could be interesting. It used to be called NETELLER years ago, and I paid a handsome profit with it. Then it got into all sorts of trouble because it was involved with transferring money with accounts to do with gambling in the U.S when they were going pretty much all out anti gambling from what I can remember. I seem to remember one of their directors being imprisoned or being threatened with imprisonment. That would be what?, blimey, 10 years ago?, no probably more. Good heavens how time flies!!!.. I know about SEE and all too much about QPP. Be very careful with QPP ESPECIALLY if you post on the board. If you do not post what others want to read you will be absolutely lambasted and branded a troll etc. If you don't mind me saying, don't allow them to influence you, keep to your strategies. I have been in and out of QPP twice, making a tiny profit. To my fame????, I was in QPP when it was a quiet board and on the 2nd. page. Too many rampers and at times particularly nasty board, so good luck. I will have a look at IOM, thanks for bringing it to my attention. Another one I am interested in and should have gone for perhaps rather than TW. is OPG. Have you come across Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader. He has written a very good book, "The Naked Trader, how anybody can make profits investing in shares". I would thoroughly recommend it, along with the Zulu Principle by Jim Slater. Perhaps I have already mentioned it, sorry if I have, put it down to my age!......oh, to be in my early mid 20's again!!!!. Regards and good luck CM

Interesting you mention using a stop loss. I am agreement with you fully over the matter. Preventing a small loss becoming big by taking the human emotion out of the equation. Selling is always the hardest part of any trade. Don't want a tree shake thank you very much. I tend to hit too many branches on the fall. I understand your chain of thoughts nevertheless. The other stocks I am invested in are CLL, ITV and REDD. None to the degree I had been previously invested in before the market correction. I have decided it is better to invest on a smaller basis as I use to and had success with. Sometimes success can lead to taking risks when previously we wouldn't have taken such risks. Not quite a case of feeling invincible, more a case of getting carried away and taking my eye off the bigger picture. Better small gains than big losses. Other stocks I am interested in particularly at present are housing stocks, the like of Bellway, Taylor Wimpey, Redrow and smaller Inland. If I remember rightly, some stocks tend to do well at certain times of year and for builders it is often back end/front end of the year. I have been looking at the fundamentals and started looking at RNSs, trying not to get impatient to invest before doing enough research. For any stock, I look for a low PE, PEG (lower than 1.0, the lower the better), rising EPS, revenue, profits, preferably paying a dividend (preferably having increased over at least the last 3 years, but not essential), good institutional and director holdings, good profit margin and ROCE. I also like to see the share price close to its high and the trend looking positive along with its share price graph - investing into strength. Just because a share is high doesn't mean it can't go higher in the same way that a share price which is low can't go lower. After the market correction I am more inclined to invest in companies with a higher market cap. than previously, hence my holding in ITV. Growth may be slower, but the risk is generally, but not always, lower. Care to share what your trading plan is DE?. Maybe not too different from me. Regards CM

Is it just 3 weeks ago that the markets seemed about to go into meltdown?, seems more like 3 months. How quickly things change. Having sold all my 11000 HAYT shares at 69p-70p I re-invested 2000 shares at 75p., wanting to keep some of my powder dry. Did I do the wrong thing by selling?, well, with hindsight I would have to say yes, but we don't have hindsight in advance, so I think I took the right decision at the time for the sake of my nerves and general mood!. I was trying to preserve capital. Good to see the rise over the last few days or so and to be back in profit (all be it a far smaller one than had I stayed fully invested). I wonder if HAYT can keep its' price or if it will fall back again as its' won't?. Time will tell. Good luck and regards CM

Hello DE. Thanks for the post, good to hear from you. You are quite right about psychological discipline. I expect it is something that most investors don't even think about, but it is vitally important if we are going to be successful. Holding my nerve I find particularly difficult when things turn against us, especially when there is a market correction. However, we can't change the past and have to get on with things as they are now. Sometimes it can seem it is a matter of starting again. And keeping our discipline, which means not going chasing shares to try and make up our losses elsewhere as I did earlier this week and got my fingers burnt. Stupid. I really should have known better. If I say it myself, I am better than that, I have been investing for long enough and until lately doing well. Have to put it down to another lesson learnt. Fortunately I had a little bit of wisdom by only investing very little, but it would have been better putting it here. Oh well. I hope any other investments you have are going well. Good luck to you too. Regards CM

Hello Midway. Yes, a nice rise today. I would have invested more yesterday but I've had too much tied up in stocks of late and the recent market correction spooked me somewhat. So it was back to investing at a lesser level and possibly averaging up (investing into strength rather than averaging down investing into weakness) until I have a better idea where things are heading and my confidence returns. Rather accumulate slowly rather than "take a punt" just because the share price is rising. With the dividend payable to holders 17 October?, the announcement yesterday in the AGM wasn't going to affect the share price, which is what happens when shares go ex. dividend (generally). Regards CM

And that matter of time is?...........how long?. Sorry EZ, heard it all before with many other speculative shares and the time has yet to be!. You may be right but I wasn't prepared to give it the benefit. Taken my funds whilst they still existed and will do proper research the next time rather than take a "punt" which I did here, which was totally out of character and served me right. An old lesson needed to be re-learnt unfortunately. Good luck CM

Bought in this morning a smallish holding, having had REDD on a watchlist for some time. I can always average up should things continue positively. The below maybe interesting reading from Paul Scott. I'm not a particular fan of his, but sometimes he says something worth reading. Hope the link works: http://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-30-oct-2014-nar-redd-alu-87317/ Regards CM

I know how you feel, but you are not stuck in until a recovery. Nothing stopping you selling out, you will just have to cut your losses and move on like me. I didn't invest much seeing this was so speculative, but taking the loss hurts all the same. We have a tendency to hold on believing it is going to go back up the moment we sell (might do, or it might fall further) or resigning ourselves to the "in it to the end" mentality. Luckily I do have a day job too, all be it a low pay one (day off today). Even some of my better, low risk shares, fall back. Good luck CM

"Lock in losses" or possibly take bigger losses, hoping to see the share price rise (on what basis?). Don't see there is much to buy into on after the rns on Monday. Each to their own. We need to make up own decision on what is best for ourselves. Heard it all before about "must be mad to sell at these prices, average down etc. etc.". Difficult to sell my meagre holding, anything above 10000 shares without the share price falling further. Share price has just dived whilst posting this. Was just over 1.8 to sell, now 1.7. Enough!. Could got over 2 first thing. Take the money CM and put what is left elsewhere and learn from the experience. Good luck all CM

That's 3 of us then. I really should have known better. Wasn't in a position/place to do proper research so my own fault for taking a "punt". Still in but watching share price for a better price to sell. Good luck to all in here. CM