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Akworld. Yep, earlier in the week I thought 15p might be a stretch as news comes, but the way this moves on news, I think 10-15p will come pretty easily.
Thanks everyone. Yes, it does sound like drilling into Karoo group has either just started or is about to. Useful to think about timelines. Thanks!
Found the answer in the Analyst Research:
"Next steps for the exploration well: further drilling, logging and then testing
The well is likely to take around three weeks to reach total depth in the Basement. It will drill down to the base of the Lake Bed Formation at a depth of 400m, and will then continue into the Red Sandstone Group and the Karoo Group. The Karoo is the primary reservoir target and is expected to contain stacked reservoir and seal units which will be more consolidated due to the age and depth of these sediments. If helium is present, it will be possible to perform drill stem tests on this interval and recover undiluted helium samples for grade analysis. We see the potential for Helium One to release further details of helium shows being encountered over the coming weeks if they are significantly larger than the first helium show. We would expect details from logging data to be released with pay zones being identified and potentially drill stem testing details at the end of hole."
So, should we assume that they're starting to drill "the Karoo Group" or could DM have recorded the video a day or two ago? (no idea of legal constraints around timeline implications for posting on social media).
In light of Johny's comment, I have watched the video about 5 times. He has a point that the lake section seems like filler to remind everyone of basic fact (10% bubbling to surface).
Then, to borrow Space's quote, DM says:
David Minchin:"..a working helium system with the capacity for accumulation to develop beneath even in marginal sealing units. These early indications give our team great confidence as Tai-1 advances towards our primary target stratigraphy. We are proud to be completing the process of exploration and discovery started by TC James 63 years ago".
So I have one question. What does anyone think DM means by 'primary target stratigraphy'? Do people think he means:
1.) total depth, on the basis that's the depth they are most interested in.
2.) or does he mean all of the potential pay zones?
The reason I ask is because answer 1 suggests the drill is almost at total depth. Answer 2 suggests much less progress with drilling and a video that is filler rather than a hint.
The video comes across to me as marking both an end and a beginning (history / discovery), rather than as a piece of filler between news.
Thoughts?
I agree with Aaron that its the potential resource extension and location that are key drivers here. The share price may be expensive, but I'd rather invest in a stock in a safe jurisdiction and being in the US will hopefully have perceived then real benefits for production and PR around being a 'greener option' through less transit for processing. The BOD looks strong, Ian Stalker's name drew me in, and the plans look ambitious. If the US want to encourage growth in these types of businesses, that might support the 'green transition', then surely they have put themselves in the right place at the right time? If they get it right, there's no reason why they might not be comparable to some of the USD 100m mcap comparison companies, which is circa 80m GBP, another 3 x on from here. Ian Stalker's other darling, HE1, went from around 8p to 27p and is currently sitting around 22p while drilling. A different play and much bigger potential, but HE1 have so far been quite good at managing their share price (touch wood) and I think that's a big deal. Of course, now I have said all those nice things, the share price will tank next Monday.
SP I also got spiked at 8p, but I'm expecting same as you, retrace and lull, before it moves up again. I think most shares will be in tight hands for the time being with just some profit taking every now and then.
Presentation was interesting, nothing bad in it, have a listen, I think someone linked it on here and it was recorded so there should be a replay up soon.
But does everyone who took the IPO have access to their stock yet? I am wary of buying too much at the moment if the price is being squeezed due to low availability.
Great interview, thanks Cperkin.
On the RNS timeframe - Things are going well, we probably will get an RNS on Monday, but it could be Tuesday / Wednesday. DM doing a fabulous job, but drilling seems unpredictable to me, even in this case where all things point to discovery.
With respect to the OTC listing, MODE have said in a podcast that they expect their application to be approved between now and next week and said that the delays were basically administrative due to volumes. They applied at the same time as VLRM, so that bodes well for OTC.
I'd imagine NFT news around the same time.
Its easy to take Mick's comments out of context. The discussion in the Telegram group looked pretty sensible from what I saw. It was a discussion of how the product will work and it was notable for how in-depth it was. They might have mentioned a case for 10 quid but I was busy so didn't see that if it was there (its been discussed before, its not an unreasonable long term target for a functioning product). Pretty sensible targets near term in that group, ranging from seeing the 60s again short term to heading through on news to 90p-120p range. But the discussion last night was mainly on operational steps and what everyone was looking for from VLRM in terms of news and actions. More people being vocal than I have seen in a while, so it feels like PIs know news is coming and are shifting to a more focused attitude, which is nice to see.
It didn't slide. We dropped to 18p on opening after the 7am RNS about the lost drill piece / sidetracking / further shows above pay zone. Which was of course the 'not bad / actually good' news. So imo, the price action this week is a combination of low volume and possible churn out of anyone who bought in between 18p and upwards, who has now decided to take a little profit on that. Add in that markets are down across the board and we seem to be moving between 21.5 and 23p (although check with the chartists who will have a genuine figure, not my finger in the air number). If we don't get more news this week, then I am hoping we'll see some FOMO volumes on Friday to keep the support or move us up a little.
Its reminding me of when we ticked down from 23p to 17p about three weeks or 2 RNS's ago. That bounced didn't it, suddenly the share price started rising out of the ashes and went to nearly 27p in 2 / 3 days.
I think its happened because there's nothing going on but waiting and everyone is friendly and relaxed about what a solid investment HE1 is. Guilty of shooting the breeze myself, but happy to keep it to HE1 only, although operational comparisons (to other helium co's / drills) have to remain valid as reference points.
Wondergoals - agreed, the relentless negativity from Bear is grim. Anyone who bought at 47p and is still here would probably prefer to breathe a sigh of relief today rather than receive Bear's underhand FUD.
CF buying more says a lot, he has a lot of skin in the game.
Ryan - yes, that's the joke of it. IDFK, use the boards, don't use the boards. DYOR and live with the consequences. Let's hope we get steady progress from here.
Moniman, I've seen that post, it originated on the ARB board which has descended into chaos. He essentially said they will work in a team where one person will just keep posting negative headings and de-ramp, two will appear plausible investors but will subtly support the de-ramper and a 4th person will champion the share for a period to gain trust, before losing faith in the stock and encouraging others to do the same.
Anyway, DYOR. If we can get this seller out, I think share price has the chance to recover with further news on the way after CF buys (DIM spin out next).
Si - What is the big news you were kinda expecting, because I thought this looked great.
Space - you mean death threats. Rowling received death threats.
Against that backdrop, there is very little incentive for women to want to start speaking up individually in relation to any behaviours perpetuated by anyone who is biologically male, trans or otherwise. But then, that is the goal of the death threats and of course there is no legislation to stop the perps.
Anyway, I expect all this will have to be deleted by the admin eventually, as we're somewhat off topic.
Yes, its particularly irritating but I think it will move back up on any news re DIM spin out. AGM coming up to find out more / ask questions.
What I mean is where it says, in reference to the shows:
"Visual identification of bubbles in mud returns also offers circumstantial evidence of free helium gas in the sub-surface. However, it is important to note that this interval needs to be logged with wireline before a pay zone can be determined."
Should we expect news on this before total depth or news on this during the later, pre-planned 'appraisal period' that their chart shows was planned to run (from memory) August I think?
FLY, yes, I was thinking they probably want / have to verify the percentages first and presumably didn't get the chance.
What does everyone think about the fact DM is now talking about wire line logging again before total depth (at the show depths)? I take it as a huge positive, short term.