Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
So now this looks like its staying in the 40s (fingers crossed), what do we think the news next week will bring? Is it time to move up? The warrants being exercised made no dent and most of the shares are locked up, so I can't see what would hold BEN back now when news of that first payment or the next surprise off take or acquisition arrives.
Think it was a late buy.
Fundamentals, conviction hold and not listening to shorters that turn up and whinge all day on LSE. But you know that Kallu, otherwise you wouldn't be here, chipping away.
No one is selling, that's basically it.
Still can't buy. Been NT a while.
The other thing to say is that, if you look at how AW seems to handle these things with the institutions on board, the number of options and warrants is limited relative to the entire share capital, to limit dilution, and it seems like AW normally works with the holders around when exercise takes place. The larger option position of 1m that was worked through, for example, was admitted just after production started, presumably so that trading volume would support it.
So with this exercise, I am hoping the business and broker have worked together on this one and the warrants are being exercised and admitted at a strategic moment, when they expect volume, rather than during a quiet period, with little volume and small share price drift. Admission is 20th Jan, I think, so let's see what happens between now and then.
Cap - they don't exercise the warrants at any old time because they are people working for a broking company, not PIs. So they will not be allowed to operate belief in fundamentals as PIs do, under their risk strategy for the business. Any warrants received by brokers in exchange for services will get exercised at strategic times and, as Rob has said, they may forward sell actual stock they have been sitting on that they received in order to pay for the warrants. Its strategic risk management of stock, rather than buy and hold as PIs do.
I should add that they have been in production since 1st Dec and AW has said several times he expects to be shipping by the start of Feb, so I am also being conservative with timeframes.
Maico, by the end of Feb if monthly production and shipping is firmly up and running, BEN will be producing monthly revenue of GBP 8m per month, ie. equivalent to approx 96m GBP per annum, with profit running somewhere around 45-50m GBP annualised. So conservative PE of 4 x 45m GBP profit = 180m mcap = SP of 50p.
That's before any 2nd high wall miner is put into use, which would basically double revenue and profits.
Rob1967 - I agree the figures are what the market will want, what I was getting at is that the wash plant and rail spur news are both a pre-cursor to any RNS that will contain revenue figures. Get the wash plant processing, then the first processing payment follows. Get the rail spur operational, then the first sales payment follows. We know the off take is in place, so that's the flow of how the figures will arrive.
The wash plant and the rail spur news are the significant news that will drive the share price. We've been in a range before production a couple of times, we'll be in a range again at some point in the future.
Its just trading in a range. Nothing holding it back, holders waiting on significant news which will bring the next leg up.
Kallumama, if you don't short, why are you here whining away? Is your average that bad and if so, why are you unhappy with the staff instead of the shorters? I do find it mysterious that some people sit around on forums being relentlessly negative and angry all day. Have you not got anything to do that might make you happier?
Kallumama 'Based on the volume of posts by THG employees on LinkedIn I feel they are colluding to bump up the share price'.
Someone who is probably shorting the company share price at the expense of the staff holding stock, then comes on here and claims the staff are colluding to make their company look good.
Perhaps they have decided they have had enough of being robbed blind while they do all the hard work, Kall.
Nomlungu, one step at a time. Its the most obvious drop, but it doesn't mean they won't look at other trading sessions. This story is only just starting to play out, which is why I say it will be handed off to lawyers at THG and not something MM is sitting around dwelling on for any length of time. Lawyers will be in their element trying to work out whether there's anyone they can see in court.
I guess it could be individuals they go after as much as institutions. It wouldn't be the first time a corporate has sued an individual and I guess if you want to make an example out of people and find evidence of co-ordinated shorting, then maybe they will. Brokers would probably be forced to either face being sued themselves or hand over the court subpoena / pass the buck to the underling shorter.
I doubt its going to affect day to day running of the business by senior management. It will be lawyers dealing with this, who are sharp as tacks and cunning as foxes.
Ste2000:
'What’s so interesting is this article says 4.1% of shares on loan whereas last week daily Mail article said 8% (and both site same research ) so either they are still making stuff up or shorts have closed dramatically '.
The 8% was 8% of stock on loan from CREST for the whole of December, which is a different figure. The Daily Mail were comparing stock on loan overall from 13th December and 29th December and their data matches the Times comment.
However, there are several aspects of the reporting from Neil Craven that leave me wondering what he is up to. The Daily Mail have written back to me explaining the comment about doubling shorts - 1.95% to 3.96% between the two December dates, but they have given no explanation for the October reference they made to short stock tripling.
Bearing in mind the first Neil Craven piece appears sensationalist and makes no mention that the share price rallied after the 29th December, despite the shorts increasing, it raises a number of questions. In today's article he writes:
'It follows revelations in The Mail on Sunday last weekend that hedge funds and other traders had built up record short positions in The Hut Group, the owner of the LookFantastic and MyProtein brands.
THG's shares subsequently plummeted 10 per cent on Tuesday, the first trading day after the weekend, and are struggling to bounce back.'
In essence he has highlighted that the share price did not fall after the extra short positions were taken, but it fell after the heavily negative Daily Mail article was published.
So its entirely possible that a sell off occurred due to the Daily Mail article.
Found a website for West Virginia long range forecast saying +8 to -12 degrees C, with some snow but not every day. Presumably -12 is at 4am.
Coggy -10degrees F is apparently -23 degrees C, so if your forecast is right, that's arctic style.
My guess on all this - no clue ; )
Of course, I could always do with a cheap top up, so maybe I'll change that comment and say its gonna be dreadful weather (even if its not).
Looks alright through to 21st Jan, which is the longest range weather forecast I could see. Light snow on 2 mornings. Staff will be experienced so they must be used to working through a US winter.