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It was a pleasure to meet shouston at the meeting . A few other points . Nigeria is still there but a back burner . We did the raise and didn’t use the accordion facility to get Cuda as we intend to replace summit financing with conventional lender . And if we had user summit it would have messed up our ability to replace them. They sounded confident they will have new financing this year .
I wish tiburn was listening as my take on the explanation is that we need more than the one pipeline to deal with pressure issues to expand production. It sounded like the one pipe would only fix the one well and we need a different solution: but that is why I wish a technical person had listened to the explanation of the pressure issues
Sounds like he has a plan to increase production Incrementally and when the reserves are proven to strike a better deal for a jv. So hopefully the patient investor will be rewarded .
This is outside my expertise, but I understand that post consolidation, it will be make it economically feasible for people to buy shares on our exchange and to trade them on your exchange. That hasn't been the case before with our inability to trade at the increments you do. If that is the case, I am hoping we see UK buyers soaking up our shares.
We will see a bit of a rollercoaster with the price until we get news on Q3 results and whether or not Art is planning a raising for another acquisition. If you like the future of this company, I think there will be a buying opportunity here in Canada post consolidation. I am waiting for that opportunity to average my cost down so I can revamp my exit strategy here.
GLTA
It occurs to me that they really want to get the UK relisted before they have pressure to release the Q2 numbers. That is why I think there is a hard push here to get the Prospetcus done with Q1,so they can get that out and then release Q2. Q2 numbers include the results of a flooding program that was more aggressive than the Ryder Scott report was using for its predictions on the production and life of the field, so it would suggest that if they don't get the prospectus out by end of the month, they are going to have to go back to the drawing board and redo the Prospectus over to include Q2 information. I hope they get approved soon.
The Atomic take out was done when production was 1400 boe and we get our WI % of that. Q1 of 2021, we know from Cuda's financials that after we took over, we didn't increase flooding as they didn't have the cash. So flat production in that time. So on relist, the best we will see in our reflected stock price is our share of 1400 barrels, with adjustment for our debt. I don't know what multiple we get here. But we started the flooding in April (Q2 of 2021) - so after this opens in the UK, I suspect that is when the news can be released on our increased production results from the flooding.
I don't know how the market will figure out our cost and profit on the increased production because part of that includes figuring out with CUDA how we deal with their share and fact they are not paying their share of production costs. When that is figured out, we will get our true adjusted share price, whatever that might be. Hopefully at the AGM next week, in the Q and A or informal session, AM will give us some sense of what is going to happen and when. GLTA
Thanks for the clarification GYHS - that is the type of analysis someone with knowledge has to do with the numbers we have so we can properly figure out where this price should eventually settle on relist.
CUDA's Q1 financials for Q1/2021 give you what you need to read and their May 28, 2021 MD& A report. That tells us what they calculate is their netback - so you can look at the oil price at the time, and figure out the cost of extraction. Then using the current oil price, and taking into consideration we have a 3 year committment to sell oil at set prices, to satisfy our lender, we can hopefully figure out the value of our company.
CUDA financials tell us that production in Q1 of 2021 was up 3% because there wasn't enough cash for the injection program. Our disclosure in COPL tells us that April 14 we started the increased gas injection program becuase I think that is when our lender approved the Atomic financials and started giving us cash toward injection.
SO we have no information yet on the success of the new program. What I don't know how to value is the proven and probable reserves in the ground on our two plays. I know the Ryder Scott report tells us those numbers. What we need is a knowledgeable oil and gas player to tell us what dollar value per barrel for proven or probable reserves the market will give us. From that we can figure out our market cap. And that should help us figure out the proper share price. We can base it on last known production as disclosed by CUDA and we can figure out what each 100 barrel increase in production adds to that valuation, so when the results of the flooding are known, we can figure that out.
Guitar I thought I was something that said flooding started April 18. After atomic financials cleared. So we are coming up on several weeks and by AGM it will be 2.5 months so we should be able to hear if our production is up.
About 5 years ago, maybe even longer, they had shareholder approval of up to 10 to 1 consolidation. If they were happy with that they wouldn't have this on the agenda. So asking for 100 to 1, it strikes me there is a consolidation between 10 to 1 and 100 to 1 that is their target. Even at 20 to 1, that would take us down to 700 million shares to 800 million, fully diluted. I don't like the consolidation, but this company is closing on 20 billion shares out. Maybe does better with a billion out.
I agree Tiburn, but Cuda was in trouble as of Mar 31 and saying they couldn’t pay their debts. We started increased flooding in April. A non performing creditor doesn’t get to just increase their interest so we have to be going forward under penalty clauses that add to our wi and deplete Cuba’s wi.
Hoping for bags, read further into cuda financials they obtained 9 million last December to kee breathing but by March 31 , 2021 were still admitted to be in default and saying they could not promise they could rearrange it again. Bodes well for us using default and penalty clauses to increase our interest. Makes no sense we spend more money when they don’t contribute to expenses and we let them use us to keep their share. Hopefully they have had to relinquish at least part back to us to sort out the debt issues .
An interesting find in the MDA report on the CSE site. The purchase of the Atomic asset was structured with a $5 million holdback for adjustments. Page 3 - says that money was released April 14 to Atomic. Which should mean that the COPL accounting team were satisfied with Atomic financials by that date, so then we just have to roll those into ours for the purposes of getting this relisted in the UK. So it looks like this is on track. Problem is it was closed in Q2 of 2021 and those are not due to June 30 - so not sure how that plays out for issuance of financials. And a June 29 AGM date.
It remains to be seen if the flooding program had the results they were hoping for here. I believe that another document reported that started April 14. Our AGM is June 29. I don't know how much time has to pass for the flooding program to be well tested and assessed so that we can be told if it is meeting or exceeding expectations. With the AGM 2 1/2 months after that started, I hope there is enough test data for a report to be given, even if it is in the informal Q and A part of the AGM.
Tiburn, I read the Cuda financials because they have an update to March 31, 2021 in their disclosure. I was hoping to read they lost their interest to creditors last year, but as you pointed out below, they arranged $9 million of new money and made deals with their creditors by December 31. However, in their March 31, 2021 first quarter disclosure - they clarify they are in default on multiple fronts and the financials say Cuda cannot promise it has a way to make further agreements with creditors. So since COPL took over, CUDA remains in default even with their new $9 million. What I still don't undestand here is what rights do we have on their default? Is it a situation where the creditors take it over and sell it to us to retire debt? Or does the creditor/lender have a right to step into Cuda's shoes and pay the costs to carry the interest ? Anybody with expertise in oil and gas - can you explain for us what usually happens when the partner is in default and we are growing the field?
The dates related to the next AGM are interesting - shareholders of record to May 12 I believe (or May 13) and meeting to be held June 29 in Calgary. I think we are now focussed as being a North American company and so Nigeria will be great, but we are not holding our breath waiting for that to happen. I would think that they wouldn't be trying to have an AGM before they are relisted and so if the date of record is May 12- you have to expect they intend to be relisted in the UK for the purposes of determining shareholders of record, for the AGM purposes, by that date. Crossing my fingers!
It is crazy that people in Canada are selling or buying without knowing what the result of the flooding program starting April 1 will be, and before we get disclosure of whether or not we have acquired a larger working interest. There is a lot of missing information that has to be dislosed before we get a proper share price. Whatever it is, we can benefit from it.
While we are still trading in Canada, our securities acts and regulations direct that when material facts change, there is a disclosure obligation that must take place. Art filed an application with our securities commission to limit the directors and insiders from trading in Canada because we remain open. So they can't buy or sell with inside information. The restriction will come off when the public all get the same information. So its a bit sad to see the frustration on this board because I, like Caw Caw, and all of you, would be ecstatic to see this share price shoot to the moon on a re-rate. If anybody posts a concern it helps us all balance our expectations. Right now, I have no idea of how much we will be earning per barrell coming out of the flooding being done as of April 1. Once we know what our projected earnings will be, we can all look at a share price based on a price earnings multiple. I posted earlier this morning - the opportunity Art mentioned in Africa was another play. It sounded to me as I recall like it was currently shut in as flow rate was too slow and so I take it this was a declining asset or something - but with the gas flooding technology, what Atomic is mastering now, the field in AFrica could be given a jolt and start producing again. So we are not buying a gamble - it would be a producing play. It sounds like it has a few warts on it, but I think that was from the December presentation Art did that he said it could benefit from the flooding technology. So it might just have enough warts on it that Art is buying it, at a discount - and then he can use the Atomic flooding model to get it producing and creating positive cash flow for us. All of which helps our share price. But it might also mean more dilution - so if we discuss this in a reasoned manner, we can get a better sense of what wil happen with the share price.
OPL 226 - like a lot of posters have said here - there are a lot of reasons to believe it will prove out to be a profitable and commercially viable field. Look around it. But that hasn't actually been proven yet. Once that is proven, then our 5 or 15% ownership of it get attributed a much larger value.
GLTA
Just getting moving this morning. Caw Caw it isn’t just a mere possibility Art will commit all the gains we make somewhere else. He straight out said he is looking at an African play that could get increased production from this flooding technology. West Africa? I think . So we are still buying. At least now it’s producing assets if he does what he claimed. I expect this break is his chance to roll us back 10 to 1. He has approval to do that long-standing for years. I think it would actually help our price. All of which I say hoping this doesn’t get diluted and we get to 8 pence like some here predict. But I am also in favour of balance. I also think this break he gets production up and buys more working Interest so we will end up with an improved stock price when the prospectus comes out and hopefully positive cash flow.
It is strange that you guys are shut down for a move to the bigger board and we can trade away in Canada. XOP did give notice to our securities commission for a lock down on Insiders trading on our open exchange. That is positive, as it demonstrates the company is ensuring nobody can complain later the insiders are either buying or selling before a massive rerate. The stock was trading at our lowest point when that went in, so it can only mean that lockdown ensures that investors cannot complain later that insiders were buying stock at a half penny before a massive rerate, knowing it was coming, when the only way it can rerate on our exchange is UP!
This will come back out for you in the UK by the time we have already started the flooding to increase production as of April 1, and the prospectus wil report earnings from December 1 and our share of them. We will have a better sense in the prospectus of the current revenues and expenses. I am as excited as everyone and hoping for a great rerate. I value the experienced oil and gas posters on this board. What I do not currently undersand is our expenses for increasing the production of the oil and our carrying costs on our new debt. So what will our effective net profit be in April for every barrel of oil?
I am hoping when the smoke clears, as well, that we have bought out the insolvent partners' working interest so we get a larger percentage of profits here for being the one operating this producing play. To that point, I did see a post some days ago that Atomic gave notice of default last fall to the insolvent partner, but I don't know if that means we can take them out for being in default. Anybody have any better idea on that? I am hoping that the fact that Atomic gave notice of default while working to sell to us, and the time to cure default has expired, means that we can buy out the insolvent partner working interest. Because it doesn't make sense for us to spend millions to build this up for the insolvent partner. I am sure in oil and gas contracts there are standard provisions of what happens to a partners working interest when they are in default of their share of expenses. Anybody know what those rights are?
My understanding is that the suspension has to happen because the asset or company we have taken over is worth more than our company is currently worth. So the company has to suspend and report the material change in facts, in a prospectus, so that when this comes back to market, after people can absorb the information about the new value of the company, the trading price will instantly be reflective of our new value. So nobody can complain later that they had stock up for sale at the wrong price. So hopefully this is only 20 days, at worst, but frankly- I won't mind if it doesn't come back on until they have commenced the miscible flood program and can report the increased production because finally with income we can have a share price that will take earnings into consideation. GLTA
A very aggressive board today. People are wound up! Caw caw maybe we can have a steak at vintage chophouse To celebrate if this comes good. My favourite place in town. GLTA
I posted earlier today and jay12 replied to it with a bit of dig. We all have a bias in looking at these boards and so we like to see posts that support the same opinions we hold. So how about we compare what Art has said and what he has done?
In December of 2020, Art did a podcast that boasted he was doing this Atomic deal and there wouldn't be any more dilution. Since he did that podcast, how many placings has he done? And not only has he done multiple raisings and placings for vaguely stated reasons, but how many options/warrants/etc has he issued to himself and insiders since providing the market with the assurance he was going to debt finance the purchase of Atomic?
I am currently of the same mindset as Caw Caw. This is a great deal. But it is frustrating to see Art diverting the cream of it through dilution. And these are closed placings - not open to the rest of us.
Art has issued how many billion shares now, for a company that has never produced a barrel of oil? And how many shares have been issued or options granted since August of 2020, which is when I believe it was stated in a podcast by Art that is the date he started working on this Atomic deal?
So of course I want this to work. But I want it to work for the benefit of all shareholders, those of us that put money into keeping the company alive when he was fundraising at prices way higher than we are today. So if some longer term investors express frustration - and you don't agree with it - then go watch the podcasts again, look at the releases showing what placings he has done since the podcast, and then make your own mind up.
GLTA