Member Info for cautionyourblast

You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.

The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.

Given the significant burden of servicing of debt finance, I'd sooner see debt paid down or money put to work in high-IRR, low-payback-period projects and capex than any distribution.

On the Chad stuff, it can't be appealed forever. Others understand arbitral timelines far better than me. Injunctive seizure of cargo, either at Kribi or at destination port is how we get paid (should the arbitration be successful), I believe.

It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.

Thanks Trust.

Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.

Https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/04/09/trader-gunvor-takes-a-swing-at-goc-vitol-agreement-over-carlyle-assets,110202481-bre

Cash plus 4-5 times projected FY24 net profit gives a share price in the low-to-mid 40s. Add 5 pence for sound management and potential growth in ounces produced. Deduct 5 pence for country in a big political and financial mess. I still end up with FV around 43-45 pence.

...have rather a long way to catch up with the share price.

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1777389603990991304

Ok, this is what I imply:

One imagines Russia does not follow similar codes of conduct to Savannah when undertaking its international transactions.

And with that, I'm going to bed.

Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1776239858173763666

They'll have to put something out today as they flagged it last week.

It's becoming increasingly clear that the Mexican stand-off between management and the South Sudanese decision-makers continues.

One more:

https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1774026440956072009?s=20

Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1773794529268695184

Whilst I'm posting, I'll comment that I do not believe that shareholders will be the intended audience for next week's RNS. But we are probably close to the edge of some sort of denouement.

Happy Easter, everyone.

RNS Number : 7808I

Savannah Energy Plc

28 March 2024

28 March 2024

Savannah Energy PLC

("Savannah" or "the Company")

South Sudan Acquisition Update

Further to the Company's announcement on 1 February 2024, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 17 May 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan.

The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.

For further information, please refer to the Company's website www.savannah-energy.com or contact:

Savannah Energy +44 (0) 20 3817 9844

Andrew Knott, CEO

Nick Beattie, CFO

Sally Marshak, Head of IR & Communications

Dear AIM regulator and Savannah Nominated Advisor,

We don't know the detail and nuances here. If there's leeway, please allow a further extension until Savannah can get this deal across the line.

The UK stock exchange could do with some success stories in its portfolio.

Thanks.

"What price for size, shag?" 🧐

Mwahahaaa! Thanks, kat!

Initial thoughts on this:

1. Our operating (commercial) interest in SC after this goes through appears to be 100%, with the legal ownership at 62.5% (or just over). There seems to be an unusual arrangement with UER here: see the 2022 glossy. Please correct me if I've misunderstood.

2. This deal is to be funded by a Standard Bank facility and cash reserves of the company. Good. Suggests group liquidity remains healthy.

3. I've mentioned before that the existing Nigeria TOP contracts have thus far involved a lot more paying than taking. This acquisition suggests that either that situation may soon start to reverse or other credit-enhanced customers may soon be secured. Or both. Given the parlous state of the Nigerian economy, this is encouraging.

4. The Accugas post-2017 growth story reads like a valedictory aimed directly ay HE President Kiir and his team.

5. Were the parties awaiting some degree of NGN stability before announcing this, I wonder? Is the fabled Accugas debt restructuring soon to follow?

Anyway, I'm cautiously encouraged.

Best wishes, all.

I thought some of you might like to revisit this presentation from the end of 2021. Posted without further comment.

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Restoration-to-AIM-and-major-acquisition-presentation-December-2021.pdf

My understanding is that Petronas is joint operator via the OCs so I'm assuming Savannah would be so too.

I'm speculating in imagining some sort of de minimis consideration in the event of excessive delay.

From discussion with an experienced arbitrator (top-notch guy and a close friend), we've reached a conclusion (punt) of mid-2025 for a Chadian outcome. Should it be in Savannah's favour, then we're into Mareva injunctions.

Still....Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Gabon, Tunisia, etc. My African geography has improved no end.

Thanks for the post, komakino. So this decision appears to be "no one gets paid until I say so". I imagine it was a long-shot request anyway.

RR, it may be that Savannah has been advised that public disclosure of status on various aspects of the arbitration may weaken our case and/or breach contractual confidentialities. I agree it's frustrating to have no information, though.

Kinkell's post from the other place sums things up well.

Nothing lasts forever, including Savannah news blackouts and share suspensions.