AIM IP specialist Tekcapital to sell or float all four portfolio companies 'within 2 years'. Watch the full video here.
Very off topic, but are you able to use normal apostrophes biglad?
I've learnt to deal with the fact that you're intent on deramping this to high heaven, each to their own. To be fair, blatant rampers frustrate me in equal measure. But those weird reverse apostrophes you use make my head hurt.
I appreciate this is bloody trivial. Happy Sunday all, my money is on some news dropping this week!
There's lots to it MK - its definitely not a perfect science (especially for inexperienced analysts - which I am) but it can be incredibly accurate at pinpointing key levels and patterns in behaviour.
My advice would be to supplement the knowledge you already have and monitor the fundamentals (news etc) and use patterns and other analysis to corroborate those views. I won't get too into it as send people to sleep!
Sorry MK, I talk in technical analyst code half the time. My advice is to search "correction patterns cheat sheet" or something of that ilk, and find a one pager that shows flat , zigzag and triangle corrections. If you then zoom out to a weekly chart in logarithmic view (I.e each candle represents one week) you should be able to make out a triangle pattern, with converging highs and lows from the peak in April 2020.
As I said I'll chuck an annotated graph on later which may make more sense. It looks good though.
Heads up, 2p seems programmed here TA wise.
HOWEVER, we look like we're on the cusp of finishing our correction since last year. I'm going to post a graph later and I'll link to it when I have time this afternoon.
Double figures coming IMHO. GL DYOR, today may not be great but I believe better times are coming.
I've felt for some time now that overseas operations, notably the JV for Synovate Global is the best opportunity this company has.
I still believe Catenae will have some involvement in the UK, but the offering with the JV is a very attractive one that I think governments and businesses will be interested in.
In other news, awful sentiment, derampers galore and the 'bad' news with the NHS app (although for most this would be no surprise as was never the expectation) all point to a potential bottom here. If any kind of a hold or bounce is mustered today, bullish divergences will be strongly in place up to 6hr chart. The last time we had those we bounced quickly above 4p. Potentially a short relief for another dump, but no doubt a welcome relief for investors and there's always the argument that if any contracts or positive news would propel this higher, it would be soon. My mid term target remains 15-17p.
As Woodstock has said though, I do think the strength is diluted with AIM companies as there are many more wild variables, for example a ftse100 company's price action over 5 years may be indicative of steady growth and development, whereas a company like Catenae is nothing like the company it was a few years ago. Personally I ignore any price action pre 2020 and only look at it based on then.
Maximalist Technical Analysts argue that fundamentals are not necessary, so what the business is doing is not of interest to them. Many successful Technical Analysts aka line drawers have over the years been able to yield incredible results without being in tune with businesses, purely by predicting the direction of price from historic price action. Some even called global crashes just based on how charts were looking across the board.
It sounds ludicrous, but less so once you start looking into it. Markets are driven by human behaviour and that in turn creates patterns of behaviour in price action. 90% of the time nothing of note is happening with a company so its driven by sentiment.
It sounds silly, but I was saying there will be a global crisis about a year before covid (I called it a bit early) as I felt that major prices globally I.e ftse100 etc needed to correct. I had no idea that would be a pandemic but felt something of significance needed to cause a drop.
Bit of a tangent, but in short... it is possible, arguably.
I shared my views in the last couple of days TA wise, but to share that again, I personally believe we're in a triangle correction from April last year. In the result of some positive fundamentals, Fibonacci extensions from this would point to another impulse to 15-17p range.
I believe we're pretty close to coming out of that correction, though there is an argument we could test the 2p level one final time before a climb.
If I wasnt a long term holder and based this purely on TA, I'd lean to a climb in the coming days, weeks and months though. Volume increase supports possible end to correction.
When you consider the timing with the country and world going for passporting now, plus the ending of Catenae's most significant trial, and news surely coming from overseas operations soon, I believe we'll see a flurry of activity and news, launching the SP and allowing Guy and his colleagues to capitalise from share options above 10, maybe 20p. DYOR. Until now this has indeed been susceptible to ramping and damping, any firm RNS and that ends.
I suspect what we'll see is a range of applications being used for different events, which will be measured from their usability to their output of information i.e visual dashboarding etc.
With Guy being involved in Gov conversations it would be fair to assume that such a format would include Catenae.
Let's see, lots of unknowns.
As I say quite often, I don't even think the UK is the biggest target for Catenae. Synovate rolls it all up and provides an end to end solution that other companies and private companies will likely find appealing.
GL all, diamond hands required for this share - spoken as a long term sufferer! Light and tunnel.
Biglad, how do you expect us to have had several paying customers when formal adoption hasn't actually taken place in the UK?
We've had trials running for months, only now are they talking about trialing this at Gov/country level with businesses. If anything, I'd say we're ahead of the game in that respect.
We are due to hear back on the fortune 500 company trial at the end of April/start of May. That will be great timing.
We may not win the huge contracts, but I believe catenae will profit one way or another from all of this.
Either way, the negativity will continue here until another announcement. Naturally, the SP will lower until news. I'd be surprised if we didnt have at least 2 or 3 RNS' released by the first week of May, and even more surprised if they weren't positive.
DYOR, I'm not going to ramp this share and say it's going to rise now (see my last post and comments here) but I think the slow bleed will be followed by a strong rise.
Bullish divergences are starting to show more heavily on timeframes up to 4 hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very significant bounce in the coming week, though there may be a further decline before this. Sub 2p seems unlikely at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if its manipulated down to test that level.
This agrees with how this stock has worked historically, rise on news and pullback on silence.
I'm banking on the fact that this time, the news will be more substantial or regular as the next few weeks should see contracts being given out to deploy this.
Longer timeframes this appears to be in a triangle correction since the impulse up in April 2020. Basic fibonacci levels would indicate somewhere between 15-17.5p in the next month or two, which I think are very achievable levels.
Remember, we aren't dependent on the UK here. I think the JV with BHA is actually one of our strongest plays, as testing and certification will be a more ethical and arguably effective use of controlling the virus, and won't go anywhere quickly. https://www.synovateglobal.com/about-us
To tail on the end of that, the primary logical reason would be because they're only looking like being adopted now.
Companies may have expressed interest, for example, to get their staff back to work, but nobody would have wanted to take that first step and face the wrath of condemnation.
Now, it's looking more and more like an inevitability. As soon as this gets the green light, that interest stands a chance of becoming contractual agreements.
I back the team to deliver here.
Ps great spot below on NI BBC and the link.
Derampers will always have a voice until they don't. Any contract to get the ball rolling and their entire argument is pretty much dismantled. And if I'm wrong then I'll die on my sword.
Do you honestly believe that?
How about the fact that they've been developing and trialling a vaccination passport app that is for the first time in the last two years, looking like it's going to come in to play across a wide spectrum, publicly and privately.
I can absolutely understand the patience growing thin, as a holder for a similar period myself, but if you've held shares in this company for 18 months when they've not been relevant, why on earth would you sell them this month?
Of course you do whatever you see fit, and I wish I'd played this better because until now it has very much been a manipulated stock. I just feel that its worth holding to see what plays out. Huge upside potential. If anything of substance comes off (and there will be a lot) then this price will be history.
Please note that despite concerns over Guy's charisma, he has done business in previous roles with some huge entities, so I feel confident he knows what hes doing.
One thing to note would be he may hold on to news until there's enough of a stream to propel this to higher levels - from a personal point of view, so he can profit from share options.
Dont forget this isnt all UK. Theres exciting stuff and partnerships overseas which are equally as likely (if not more) to deliver soon.
Positive again for the first time since falling off that cliff edge.
TA looks strong:
This tallies with some fantastic news for Catenae. So much money in sporting events, and they won't skimp or dally where possible to utilise the best solution. Catenae's should be right up there:
Agreed, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a bit of buying up late on with a four day trading downtime approaching, especially with April seemig like becoming a big month for news
- Poor financial highlights released (1.2m cash position being the only thing we actually learnt from this, which is great)
- Confirmation of contribution to Gov request for info (more just a formality as already alluded to)
- Guy moving shares, suggesting positioning for tax benefits (makes sense doing this at lowest possible share price)
In summary, I personally feel that it's been a week of positioning - deal with formalities, get the old financial high levels out of the way knowing they're going to dump the price, CEO shuffling his funds after this point to capitalise.
Big few months coming up. We won't win every contract, government or otherwise, but it looks like there may be plenty going around and Catenae is small enough that it wont take much to send this, so we don't need to.
Cash in the bank, involvement in government meetings, presence on prime time news channels, positive JV overseas (IMO most likely source of next update). GL DYOR
Well, as an investor I personally take comfort in the fact that there is some calculated timing with the SP in mind. I'd be more worried if there wasn't.
Promising to see Guy moving funds for possible tax benefits too. Logic would state you'd do that at a lower price to maximise allowance - thus you'd think something to influence the SP higher may be coming.
Was this morning's RNS 'puff', or was it more of a formality given that I believe that no previous RNS had actually stated they had contributed, rather that they were offered/invited to?
It is funny, whatever side of the fence you are on, you can interpret exactly the same news in very contrasting ways.
At least it's never dull, eh.