U.S. Critical Minerals List9 Apr 2026 23:37
Out of interest, I asked Copilot why helium is not on the U.S. Critical Minerals List:
Helium isn’t on the U.S. Critical Minerals List today largely because of how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluates “criticality,” and because of flawed or incomplete data used in recent assessments. The short version: the models said helium wasn’t risky enough, even though industry experts argue the models were wrong.
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🧩 Core Reasons Helium Was Removed
1. USGS concluded helium didn’t meet its thresholds for supply risk and economic importance
Helium was included on the 2018 list, but the USGS’s 2021 assessment—used for the 2022 update—found that helium did not cross the required thresholds for supply-chain vulnerability or economic impact. This led to its removal. akapenergy.com
2. Government export data overstated U.S. helium supply security
Independent analyses (e.g., AKAP Energy) showed that U.S. export data used by the USGS was significantly inflated—actual exports were likely less than half of what was reported. Overstated exports made the U.S. appear more self‑sufficient than it really was, artificially lowering helium’s “risk” score. regulatio... +1
3. The 2025 draft list still excludes helium due to modeling quirks
The updated methodology evaluates one‑year trade disruptions and estimates their GDP impact. For helium, the model produced an absurd outcome: it mapped helium’s economic importance mainly to sporting goods, not to MRI machines, semiconductors, aerospace, defense, or quantum computing—industries that actually depend on it.
Because of this mis‑mapping, helium’s modeled GDP impact came out to roughly –$1 million, below the >$2 million threshold for inclusion. LinkedIn
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🧨 Why the decision is controversial
Industry groups, researchers, and some policymakers argue that helium clearly meets the Energy Act of 2020 definition of a critical mineral: essential to national security and vulnerable to supply disruption. They point to:
• No substitutes for helium in MRI cooling, semiconductor fabrication, aerospace operations, and quantum research.
• Fragile global supply, concentrated in Qatar, Algeria, and Russia, with chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
• U.S. domestic vulnerabilities, including the sell‑off of the Federal Helium Reserve and dependence on single major facilities like ExxonMobil’s LaBarge plant.
• Recurring global helium shortages that have already disrupted hospitals and chipmakers. LinkedIn +1
Some public officials have criticized the removal, arguing it effectively concedes strategic leverage to major foreign suppliers. regulations.gov
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🧭 Bottom Line
Helium isn’t on the U.S. Critical Minerals List because the USGS’s current methodology—based on short‑term GDP modeling and flawed export data—underestimates helium’s real strategic importance and supply risk. Many experts believe this is a serious misclassification and are pushing for helium’s reinstatement.
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