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Share price saying new orders on the way. Interesting to see what Q2 delivers, could be anything from Railways, Buses, Airports or joined up journeys. All these sectors are primed to rocket. In an odd way the risk is that they all take off on a parallel timescale and company runs out of capacity. Broker says 'fair value' 150p per share but he also said that any new orders will make him revise the company value higher. Great company very well managed.
OK, must admit Wey is purely online and MLVN only slightly online but todays bid for WEY is on a rating of 7x sales forecast 2021 and PE of 117.
MLVN now has the money to more or less match the sales and profit forecast for WEY in 2022 but is selling on a sub 5 PE and 30% of sales. Agreed its early days but certainly massive upside and todays placing gives them the money to do the job.
Very exciting.
Due on the 28th (I think), very good announcement from Government today about £3bn bus related investments. I suspect they will be due an upgrade to forecasts as they are still have a market cap of only £9mln versus old forecast sales this year of £ 16mln and I believe there is a chance of strong increases in future years combined with the mix of sales being data driven with much higher margins and service based revenue, could easily double from here.
China is the biggest global market (50%) for Malvern's sector yet hitherto they have had zero exposure so, over time, with the new team in place there should be the potential to massively increase the size of the business to multiples of historic sales and profits. Only needs planes to start flying again as all the other business aspects are in place. Planes likely to begin from most non Red zone countries in May I believe.
MM's massively short, so bad they dare not let the price rise and attract more buyers. If the budget today contains measures to promote hydrogen energy and green public transport generally this beauty is going through the roof.
DYR
When the company presented itself to investors for the capital increase in May 2020 the (normal times, pre Covid) forecast was for annual sales of £9mln and EBITDA of £2mln. Obviously this year 2021 will at best be in effect 6 months so not helpful to forecast but for 2022 it must be reasonable to suggest matching and certainly on the bottom line improving on those figures in the light of Asia binned and bigger capacity for Uni foundation courses as well as much expanded sales team. If the above is reasonable the debt will get paid down double quick and v strong cash flow for further expansion.
Ok so first target of 0.30 reached, expect a bit of sideways from here unless the WEY switchers really get the bit between the teeth in which case the next target of 0.50 will arrive quite quickly. As lockdown and flights open up in February/March the bookings will rise rapidly as demand for Uni places v strong but student nervous about coming to plague island. We will get lift off to 1p from April onwards with 2020 results and forecast and outlook for 2021and beyond. ALL SUBJECT THE COVID COMING UNDER CONTROL Q1.
Clear statement, assuming April school opening with vaccine delivery good the company can reel in v strong demand for UK University places from abroad. Russel group is a huge expansion . Expect profit between £500k and £1mln in 2021. Good cash generation.
All things being equal I reckon they have a chance of a decent profit next year, demand is very strong , visa allocation a bit slow but costs have been cut substantially. It will be very interesting what happens in the 2nd half 2020, could be break even, 2021 good profit and 2022 all guns blazing .All from mkt cap £2mln.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8971963/Foreign-travel-quarantine-slashed-14-days-five.html