Member Info for Canary3

SD has said more than once that he wants Institutions to become shareholders and some have started to take positions.

Looking at Northern Star which seems to be one of the business models that he references, their II shareholders have around 44/45 % of the total float.

I suspect that ultimately that is where he wants GGP to end up, so either the SP rises significantly allowing Pi’s to get out at their target, or he issues new shares for II’s to buy using the proceeds to fund expansion. Most likely combination of both.

This IMO will be great for PI’s in the medium term 3-5 Years. As long as things go well.

SD has majored in his presentations about ‘green copper’ , making the mine as environmentally friendly as it can be will be high on the list of success criteria, I am sure they will employ the best minds they can to work on this.

Bamps- I am assuming that the cannocord number reflect the current thing within GGP, is that a fair assumption ?

I seem to recall when SD appointed them they were conservative with their forecast and this seems to be very bullish in comparison. ?

I saw that Desert and i bought more at the close, Cannaccord as SD ’s people!!

This year was indeed 1473, they see it dropping to 600 - 680. Presumably the new ore coming in will help. It does show how close to the edge the Telfer Operation is.

They are staking a lot on Hav as are a lot of PI’s including myself.

If we see some sustained buying this afternoon and a decent update tonight, then we will know evil forces have been at work...

Thanks, thats what i was getting at, it seems to me that 150 dollars is quite low.

I am of course a novice when it comes to valuing gold reserves!!

Thanks for the reply, i guess i am thinking that if HAV AISC is very low compared to the rest of NCM other mines, then the reserves for the mine may be the same for both, but the reserve value for the respective companies will be different

So a higher value for GGP overall against NCM overall.

Sorry if i am not explaining myself very well

I am wondering if there will be a direct comparison between Newcrest and GGP on valuing reserves.?

I added up the Indicated and measured reserves across NMC projects and it came to around. 105 million oz gold and 16 M Oz copper. ( i think thats about right)

So with a market cap of 15 Billion US dollars. Thats about 150 dollars per oz gold and copper for free. ( Again i think)

From reading one article thats seems to be a low valuation is that correct?

Will the AISC be a major factor in this?

Will there be a divergence on the valuation of reserves as they are proved up in GGP or will they mirror Newcrest. ?

Sorry if this is a wrong way to look at things

The idea i have in my head is, that Newcrest portion of the ore, will be charged at one price and GGp’s will be that price plus a tolling charge.

That is for our 30%, the facilities are Newcrest so their share is paid for using the facilities they have created and paid for , we will pay an additional charge.
Thats what i would do if i was newcrest, unless the original agreement was that there would be no charge to GGP for their share of the ore being processed.

I thought there was tolling charge on GGPs part of the ore being processed ?

Very clear Bamps thank you, it is also good to be reminded that the calculations are done on gold price of 1,400 so plenty of headroom on that front.

There is also additional tax to be paid if you are still going at 75. in a SIPP. So IMO its a good move to get them into the ISA.

Also best to get some advice from a tax expert rather than an old fart like me!!

Sorry that was to Littlecrumbs, although TBF to both me and news the one i watched didn’t end like that.

Watched it yet again and you are correct...apologies for any unnecessary ramping.

Apologies for coming back to this, I just rewatched - She did introduce it as Copper gold not gold copper

He did actually say Execution risk...that was at around 5.45. he then spoke about opportunity

Then he was cut off at the end when he was about to say what he thought it might be worth,if the gold came out of the ground and revenues started to come in.

Worth watching again IMO I thought he was fairly bullish

Hi News,

on the disconnect he did say’ well its worth around 750 million already, that was followed by , the getting bigger bit and then will they mine. I called it execution risk so that misled. Agree on the opportunity bit. BTW i am very invested but i also like to see all the points mentioned rather than the caveats being missed,

I heard three things that were his caveats when the interviewer asked about the gap between current SP and the news.

1. Its already worth 750 million which is very unusual
2. the deposit needs to get bigger that 4.2
3. There is an execution risk , will they get it out.

I found it interesting the the interviewer said it was a Copper /gold play rather than a gold /copper play. briefed or slip of the tongue?

IMO Pi’s are selling, for al sorts of reasons, but the volume is low compared to total shares. II’s of all types will interested, so some short using borrowed stock, push the price down hoping that more PI’s will sell and they do.

Pi’s are selling and these could be some of the reasons,

Perhaps they think nothing much will happen during the next six weeks and can buy back in.
Perhaps they have been underwater for along time ( me) and sell as soon was they recover to par.( not me ) 1 p to go.
Perhaps they have been in large profit from buying very low and are concerned that their profits are dribbling away so sell some.
Perhaps their family know what they hold and pressure them to sell before, ‘they loose it all” personally knew guy who’s family did that ( in another share) and it cost a lot of money.

Additionally II’s buy and sell a lot when they are building position, buying slowly for a few weeks and then selling a lot fast, spooks the market and PI’s and triggers stop losses, the PI then buys back and loses a couple of percent and the II will be the one selling back some of the shares.

And so on..I worked alongside fund managers for a big institution for a while back in the day, they are vey bright, considered and ruthless but have to keep to their mandates including how much they trade.
Smaller private equity type II’s are 10x more than the big ii’s and they generally have much looser mandates., they want to make money as they build their position.

I have built for me built a very big position here and am holding for at least 3 years from now. I think the worst can happen is that i will get my money back.

Again wary of my tin foil hat, i used to watch Bloomberg a lot, and i saw a conversation with an II representative, they were talking about a company that the II was completely behind and wanted to have a substantial position in , his time frame was 3-5 years. The II had been selling and had gone short and was asked about it, his response was.

We believe in the long term , but we need to make some money getting there!!

Who knows.