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I was think about this today, and IMO GGP ends up with 30% not 25% as i used to think.

Newcrest have the option to buy the last 5% at fair value, now unless they Undervalue that 5%, we will indeed have 30%, just that 5% will be in cash or shares in NC or whatever.

or alternatively

If they overvalue the last 5% we will end up with more than 30%.

I repeat as well...

And that doesn’t mean screwing over other companies that they have partnerships with, that would not be good for their shareholders IMO

Sorry to keep posting about this,

A couple of presentations ago Shuan said that he had been round presenting to II’s that he was working with in his previous positions and as a result of that, either an initial position or positions are being taken. ( cant remember whether it was singular or plural)

That was when he was saying that he wanted the number of II’s increased on the share register, GGP is not unknown anymore certainly amongst SD’s contacts in Australia.

IMO there will be small II’s / private equity likely Australia based that will be very keen to get in at this price, they will have the mandate and they will have the money. and they will know what is happening at HAV, and again IMO there are plenty of PI’s that have bought and sold over the last few months. as the price has risen and fallen.

It just my opinion, if there are no II’s buying at the moment any , why is the price action as it is?

The shorts that have ben mentions are tiny really.

I have been thinking about this quite bit since my last post when i said i could get out at Break Even at 19p and change. That was on the 7th of Sept or thereabouts so i need to see about a 20% rise to get back there. So my take on it is.

1. The market knows exactly what is expected out of Hav both in the short term and the long term, one post quoted a senior manager of another company saying 20 million oz. If we know they know IMO

2. institutions of all shapes and sizes will be wanting a position, some can't because of mandates but many will be able to.

3. There are two ways they can get shares buy in the market or buy from GGP as and when they issue new shares. (new shares may or may not be issued)

4. So the price action is about those II’s able to buy , trying to buy from PI’s (in the main).

5. With circa 4 billion shares in circulation and say 20 million a day traded, it takes a long time to build their position say they manage to buy 1 million a day, to get to 50 million takes 50 trading days, and if there are 3 or 4 II’s doing the same thing it will take a years trading.

6. With so little being traded its very easy to move the price up and down, so they run it up and down getting PI’s to sell into the action. II's don't have the same fees as Pi’s so they can do this day after day for weeks on end.

Eventually as more news comes out officially the price will rise to a new plateau and then the price action will be repeated until II’s have the positions they are happy with.

SD would like that to be anywhere between 30 to 50% , Newcrest is around 50% and GGP around 11% according to yahoo finance.

Plenty more gyrations to come in the SP IMO.

So i used to work with CEO’s and board directors before my retirement , the change to a new chief exec is a very tricky time because they tend to have unlimited power to make things happen, after all they have been appointed to drive things forward. It is especially tricky if it is their first time at it. ( old timers like myself will know what happened to Marconi, youngsters its worth a read, look up Lord Simpson).

So why is SD smart and lucky, and why we as GGP shareholders should we be grateful.

SD constantly says there are two value drivers.
1. Hav
2. The drill bit.

The lucky bit, Sandeep and his team will make sure that as far as possible there are no massive errors of jusdgement.

The smart bit, Callum and the new team, SD can’t make arbitrary decisions. He can’t just send the rigs off to somewhere he fancies.

So what is his job, i think two things.

1. Get the numbers rights, get investors on board , organises finances for the next 5- 10 years and to get the company its process and people into the shape they need to be for both growth and business as usual.

2. Learn to be a great CEO, lucky for him he has Sandeep to help him and when the time comes to hand over the finances to a FD , he will be ready to step up to a full CEO role. ( hopefully).

During all the bashing i only saw one post about his last role with the Potash company and it wasn’t followed up. This is because IMO GGP has a rock solid 3 years runway with the present set up, other wise the people coming on a ****ging off GGP would be all over SD.

No worries about the management in my House..

Old Burleigh knocking themselves out on an irrelevant talking shop..LOL

A couple of weeks ago that would have driven us down by more that 5% , its hard work now!!

and the 5% will be hundreds of millions of US dollars, 5% of HAV will be very valuable, the more appropriate question will be how do Newcrest raise the money to buy it.

If as we all hope that Hav becomes one of the biggest discoveries in Oz for along time and then develops into a mine that lasts decades, then the Newcrest share will be a very significant part of their long term future.

I would hope that in the next 4 or 5 years Hav is valued at 2 or 3 times todays value as it is reflected in GGP share price, so the Newcrest share will be worth perhaps 40 or 50% of their current Macp. of 15 billion Sterling.

Rio has a MCap around 120 billion and BHP around 155. Either could comfortably afford to buy Newcrest. Even if they had to pay a significant premium to todays price.

I wonder if there are any conditions in the JV attached to such an eventuality, and what it would mean for GGP. I bet Sandeeps phone is ringing and if we get some great numbers by Christmas it will be red hot.

Newcrest share price is down 25% in the last 12 months and that makes them look vulnerable.

If this type of scenario were too arise i think GGP;s value will go up considerably.

I thought it was striking that when he was asked about the drilling programme going forward, He said two things

1. It was going to continue through too of the next financial year and he then went on to say.
2. Look we are going to be drilling for multiple years, 'just to be able to understand how big Haverion is. '

He then said every time you look at GGP HAV will be getting bigger and bigger.

To me that says if you are looking at investing and you think it's big now after these results, expect it to be significantly bigger in the future and to be continually growing for a long time ahead.

IMO He is telling all who might be interested in investing, this is the real deal and you are investing for decades not for a few years.

Trading over the last few months.

June the 8th close 22p
July the 12th Close 16p
Sept the 6th Close 19p

It hit 19 a few times in that period, during this period there were 63 trading days, mostly down.

SD said during this period in one of his presentations that he had talked with institutions that have opened initial positions.

I make my own conclusions.

It's a psychologically important moment for me at 19.35 to sell, as that is break even , having been down a considerable sum it is very tempting to take a bit off the table. I have done so in other shares in the past sometimes to my advantage and sometimes to my disadvantage.

I am keeping them all today as i feel the there is significant upside.

My history in the share is

Is first buy 0.56 sold at 1.75 . Had to have an operation and got my paperwork in order...
Second buy 17 p sold at 27 p had no idea what was happening

Today 19.35 , but i know a lot more ( thanks mainly to this board), and i have great confidence in Sandeep and SD and i hopefully have a few more years to see things develop.

Thnaks for the reply, will be looking out for them

Bamps- I keep coming back to this post, do you think we will get the results of these drills in the next communication or even as apart of the December report ?

Thnaks

Dhanteras- this was posted the other day by No trader , it sets out a number of reasons all correct IMO

Kid - 'I wonder how the big institutions calculate their risk assessment?'

I posted this in June, and I think it still hold true: "There seems to be an assumption that IIs have sticky fingers and high rates of II holdings reduce volatility. Not necessarily true. Many investment houses actively trade with a %age of their stock, churning buys and sells against price movement. Their aim after all is to generate trading profits and do not just sit on their investments. Blackrock, a significant GGP holder, is particularly known for this. Some of them are rumoured to use their significant holdings to create artificial price movements to enhance their trading.
There are different classes of II. Many of the investment funds have self-imposed rules about the types of shares they can invest in. A large number will not deal with AIM shares.
Similarly, many IIs have guidelines for investing in 'speculative' stocks, especially those who are producing no revenue.
Also, those who do invest in mining stocks have guidelines about derisking thresholds. No matter how seductive, they are unlikely to invest of the basis of inferred MREs. When inferred become indicated, the risk factor reduces, but is still significant. It is only at FS or PFS stage, where a clear picture emerges of costs v JORC assured assets, with associated timescales and NPVs, might the risks be considered acceptable. This is why the much maligned broker reports are where they are - they recognise the risk consideration the IIs work wit

In all presentations SD and Sandeep always say world class, on the information on the Denver forum, it is referred to as world class. So I had a look at what the definition soft World Class is, there is an interesting presentation on it by BHP from 2008 looking at various definitions by industry experts.

On another site major mines classed as world class included Cadia and Lihir. From a list of 10

I am pretty sure that SD et al, are pointing to Hav as being as significant as the other two mines, they seem to be big and profitable.

Joined up, now messaging people I haven't spoken to in months!! Can anyone give me a clue how to find the GGp group?

Getting old

Yesterday I posted about II support referencing Northern star resources. SD seems to have this company in this head as model for a Muti Billion buiness.

They employ just over 2,000 pole, i don't know the break down between salaried and contractors or between Head office and field operations.

GGP has along way to go in terms of getting people on board as they build the business. The RNS the other day is a good start. You need a different type of person moving from a small company to a big company.

In a completely different industry , Specsavers was started by a husband and wife team in Guernsey, it quickly became very successful in the UK, when the company wanted to expand globally, the founders looked at the board and came to the conclusion that they needed different people at the top to lead the expansion.

The got rid of most of the people that had built the business with them and whom they regarded as friends as well as colleagues. It worked.