Member Info for Canary3

Pi’s need to be careful about agreeing to act together, it comes under the takeover code i think. Its called acting in concert

Shareholders acting in concert either formally or informally, are subject to parts of the code and thereof it can have unforeseen implications.

I would have to read up on it again to be accurate.

And if another company tries to buy GGp on the cheap, NCM will immediately counter offer, no way will they lat someone else buy GGP for peanuts.

I would just add, If NMC buy the 5% cheaply it down values their 70%

If they pay top dollar, their 75% as it would be will be worth a fortune and their SP will look very healthy.

IMO there is zero chance of a cheap buy out for that reason alone. Never mind corporate governance and the laws surrounding it.

Official RNS’s OK your choice.

Personally i am following the money Circa 500 million us Dollars , invested and planned to keep Telfer going until Hav comes on line. Modifying the line and allocating the newest one to Hav.

Perhaps they are doing that to keep the unemployment statistics dwonf who could guess what they are up to.

So Colin if i follow you properly you are saying disbelieve everything GGP and Newcrest have said about Hav and their progress so far?

I don't think the CEO’s will keep their jobs very long in that case.

What about the major ore body with a different make up sitting right beside HAV, that is in the diagrams and was talked about by SD.

Joe I go with the view expressed by either NCM or GGp i cant framer offhand which, that the PFS should have taken 6 years and has been compressed into two, basically to keep Telfer going so it was never going to a ‘complete package'.

As to Berenberg i share your consternation

If the PFS was basically known and priced into the market, the we should have seen a stable SP, but it dropped 15%.

We are trading today with only 30% of the asset rather than 40% at the close of play yesterday, so 25% less of said asset.

Although one could equally say that should have been priced in as well.

My own view is the same as it was when i posted about II;s buying in, these swings on big volumes always make me ask the question , where is the liquidity coming from, usually there are three answers.

1. A big holder is selling down - perhaps this is happening but i doubt it.

2. A placing is coming- SD say we have 30 million of the debt facility left and that will last until next Dec and he has term sheets on his desk from Teir 1 bankers- So no to that one. Although he may use equity finance a part of the mix in the future.

3. The II;s or private equity are buying and selling in the millions to create questions in people minds and they will perhaps catch some stop losses, we officially hit the low 16’s this morning , so no doubt a few were triggered.

People will sell as the sp moves on these volumes, both when its rising and when it's falling and the institutions pick up more than they sell. and so are accumulating. The II;s have been buying SD confirmed that this morning., the he said that he spoke to two this morning and he is seeing one or two creep onto the register. This is what’s happening IMO

Personally i bough some more and am optimistic for the future having watched SD a couple times today.

Sandeep will want to pay the highest possible price that can be validated and justified by an independent auditor.

If he pays 200 million Aus it value the entire assets at 4 billion, that goes on the books and thats what will be the price a predator will want to pay.

If he pays 2 billion Aus that values the asset at 40 billion and that will make predators think twice.

It will be a great outcome for us I am sure.

From the proactive video posted earlier..i bought some more on the back of his comments

An asymmetric opportunity is simply one in which the upside is much greater than the downside.

The worst that can happen is that we get taken out, alternatively we can participate in unlimited growth.

I will believe him

I just posted this because when i have a wobble and there are accusations thrown around about our great posters, I think to myself...Sandeep is the Lead Ramper and he has the very latest Information..

It's kept me buying i got some when it was 15 .87, last week I had red number that I needed to keep secret from my other half, this week i have blue number that also needs to be kept secret!!

All Hail Sandeep master ramper!! But in a quiet and dignified manner.

Is Sandeep. CEO of Newcrest. He has persuaded the board of Newcrest a major Gold Miner to invest Hundreds of millions of US dollars, to build Infrastructure at Hav, undertake serious amounts of infill and growth drilling and extend the life of Telfer by undertaking new mining activity in a mine that he was going to close. Without a PFS...

Hydrogen has nothing on him!!

I was listening to an interview with Ivan from Glencore not so long ago talking about cobalt and so on , and he was saying politicians don't really take account of the fact that it takes between 8 and 12 years on average to get a new mine up to commercial production, depending on the jurisdiction. ( they understand the words , but think they can make it go faster than they are bring told, eternal optimists that they are) Hav is indeed flying along, building the decline and so on prior to the PFS, FS and the decision to mine is quite something. IMO

I think that Newcrest is already fighting off potential suitors for take-over, and it is getting close to going public / hostile

I am Assuming that all of GGps value lies in Hav ,.

If we think that sometime in the next couple of years GGP will be 1£ sterling then that means we are worth. 4.2 ish Billion, at a lazy 2/1 to Australia dollars that circa 8 billion for 30%

So NCM share of HAV at 70% , will be valued at not far south of their closing Market Cap on Friday. Circa 20 billion

Essentially give or take a billion or so , buy Newcrest you get 70% of Hav and everything else comes for free.

Whoever wants to takeover NCM will be talking to the II’s that have holdings and IMO will be saying something like, take a30-50% premium on Fridays SP , buy shares in us to compensate for NCM being delisted and you will do very well indeed.

Hence the big reveal next week to try and show value going forward.

This is all my own speculation, but you can't have GGP valued in the billions and Newcrest SP staying where it is, without someone wanting to take advantage.

I will be holding and looking on with great interest.

Agree..

Sandeep said that they were discussing when and how to close the Telfer operations at Board level, then Haverion happened.

They were going to close it and it was rescued.

BTW i are with your point about how decisions are made, but until HAV Telfer was toast.

Show the investment community how undervalued they are by doing three at once.. IMO

Just read it through..i wish that guy would say it as it is instead of pussyfooting around....LOL

Great comment on HAV, given the breadth of his experience, his knowledge, passion and the standing he has in the industry.

As i have posted before i believe that II’s or individuals are currently building position, an individual ( suspected to be an ex fund manager), built apposition in an Aim company called Iofina.

Iofina like GGP trades on Aim and does its work overseas, in IOF case it is in America producing Iodine, the company has a long and complicated history but last September it refinanced its Debt and it was good to go. The key number for converting bonds into shares was 16p. It has a major shareholder over 21% in Aaron banks and one of his companies.

Since last September it has traded between 15 and change to 11 and change, with the occassional intraday foray into the 10;s i

It has 190 million shares and the average trading volume is around 100k shares. Sometimes with big spikes. So small trading compared to the no of shares in issue.

The bulletin board has a lot of long term committed holders , just like this whom are convinced it is massively undervalued, during this last year , they have been saying the same things as here, the shorters are at it, wish that 100k seller would go away, this is a steal Etc

So on September the first this year the share was trading at 11p , on Sept the 10th this aforementioned individual informed the company of his holding , it was 5.8% of the company, he then moved that to 6.6% of the company on Sept the 22nd. Until that point now one knew anything about his holdings or that he was building position. He acquired around 10 millions shares in the last year

The big holders shareholding remained constant.

She price 1st September this year 11p closed yesterday at 15.75

IMO this is happening here.

Yep so we will have 30% ?