Member Info for Canary3

Thnaks...thought it looked odd

Could someone check these numbers for me please.

Yahoo says on the 31st Sept 2021 they held 203,913,559

Today on the VanEck website it says on the 16th of dec they hold 22,117,937

Have the sold 180 million since the 1st of Sept?

Am i mistaken?

I would say that right now there is a forced seller, selling without regard to price, I think it is GDX doing its thing and others are using that forced sale to push the SP down to levels that look very worrying / attractive.

I believe that many are taking advantage of that, i have personally bought a lot since the SP went below the placing and bought again today.

The forced seller will stop , those riding on the back of it will stop and the buying will start again.

Fingers crossed of course!!

ersey

The ESG report has a huge importance IMO, Sandeep and SD have both put a lot of emphasis on this in the last few months, I think it will be an excellent report or they would try to minimise its importance, rather we see them making big issue of it - they know its going to be a winner. IMO

This has been mention a number of times, i think it will be central to getting bigger II’s and pension fund to invest.

If they produce an industry leading report coupled with an emphasis on copper to facilitate the move to EV’s . i think institutions that are under pressure to move away from Big oil / miners by their investors will be able to put forward a convincing case for HAV being a force for good rather than evil in the climate change debate.

BHB recently hived off their coal assets to ‘go greener’ and other companies in the mining space are making similar types of move to allow the wider investment community to invest with 'a clear conscience'

yep I agree...but if the evidence wasn’t compelling they would have gone ahead and shut it, and then it would be written off as an exceptional item in the accounts over the time it takes.

Also -- That decision to stay open was taken on the PFS numbers of 1,400 for gold. So the case must be even more compelling if gold holds around 1800

I agree this is along term marriage..

So we tend to discuss - cost of farm in- cost to get to decision to mine- cost of extra mining at Telfer at the west dome.

I have been thinking about Sandeep saying we at board level have been taking about closing telfer and then along comes Hav.

So last year the company turned over 4.5 billion revenue and generated Free cash flow of 1.1 billion

The big three were.

Cadia - Rev 2.1 billion FCF - 1.23 Billion
Lihir- Rev 1.4 billion FCF 321 million
Telfer Rev 725 Million FCF 82 million

The Time Energy effort and money too get 81 million FCF from Telfer clearly is not worth it.

So NCM have decided to keep that picture going for 4 or 5 years until it sees decent production from Hav

To pay back that type of opportunity cost from those 5 years of keeping Telfer going, you need to see some very serious revenue and FCF. Perhaps Cadia type Rev and FCF

Hav will be going for decades to make it worthwhile and at good rates of return.

In my head the decline was going to be last q 2022 1st q 2023, obviously I am wrong by your reply...thnaks

In his interview the other day SD talked about the decline taking a couple of years last quarter of 2023. my impression was that was a delay from the first plan?

Re - the move to growth drilling.

Sandeep was very bullish about getting early cash flow to finance the further development of Hav in one of earlier interviews, where he was questioned two or three times about financing the whole thing, including the additional spend at Telfer to keep things going.

Clearly first gold is delayed by the change to the mining plan from previous estimates.

Is there a possibility that earlier cash flow could come from the north, or is that to fanciful?

The 5% also puts value on the other 70% that NCM own, they want that figure to be big not small IMO.

Sorry its got 140 billion dollars under management not 16 million

looking at one of the funds that bought 650,000 and is not at 4.5 million, its based in the US and has 16.5 billion us dollars under management. I wouldn’t have guessed that a fund like this was buying. Good info magnum PI!!
https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsheet/summary?s=QCSTRX

Burliegh-I was surprised Freddie didn’t trot out his favourite comparator , he usually mentions SXX when in full flight

Nice bit of Fear-mongering from Freddie though..

The key point for NCM is that the 5% must be valued as high as possible.. that means their other 70% will be fully valued.

If the 5% is massively undervalued, then they will be taken over by one of the big boys before you can say Jack frost.

IMO there is absolutely zero chance of an undervaluation of HAV.

The margins holders really getting a good pummelling, best to hold actual shares.

The danger is that you will have to close reduce or be stopped out by this action

John thats the one thanks..and thnaks to all all for the replies. I hold great hopes for the E Breccia , it could well be huge added value in the next few years..

I seem to remember in one presentation that SD said he the E Breccia would be treated as a separate entity, i cant find the reference but i am sure he said it.

I was assuming that as it fell under the the agreed JV that eventually there would be plan to mine this area if it proves worthwhile.

I am correct in assuming that i is part of the JV?

Why would he say it will be treated as a separate entity, if i remember he chose his words carefully when talking about it.

Am i imagining things ? Being fanciful?

He has always said he wants a mixed share register and needs ii’s on Board. He has said it more than once.

Watching the video and reading Dips notes ( great stuff as always)

It is very clear that he was round the II’s trying to whip up enthusuasm, and the reply was , outside of HAV you only have a few million , you need a better balance sheet, we won’t buy until you have enough cash on the books.

However we will join in a placing.

SD was also very clear that he regards the raising as ‘ measured’ i suspect he could have raised a lot more from the II’s perhaps at lower price.

Thats life i guess. I have bought more today and will also buy tomorrow before the shares hit the register.