Member Info for Canary3

The big guys are trying to the little peoples shares.

Starbright = '18p consistently ', well 4 or 5 times

IMO- Sd will only recommend a sale ( reluctantly IMO) if all major shareholders are unanimously in favour and only then will it be passed to the wider shareholders to decide.

If the main shareholder don't go for it it won’t be recommended to shareholders and then bidders will have to go hostile with the risks involved.

My rationale for that is- that he is the luckiest CEO in mining at the moment, he left North star and made a career error in joining Salt lake potash now in adminsitration, no fault of his as things went wrong that weren’t expected and then he had to go to market for cash and that didn’t go down well.

From there he joined GGP and Hav is turning into a monster and he has bought into another tenement that looks very promising on top of the existing targets that are i the portfolio.

This a a dream come true for him and he is all over it like a rash and IMO doing very well indeed. He must thanks his lucky starts very night and what did Napoleon say about his generals again?

He will resist selling with every fibre of his being IMO

He has made it crystal clear what he thinks will be success...

Sandeep also talks a lot about the value of copper so my guess is that they will welcome nickel if it can be utilised at a profit.

Hi Bamps- I read your post with great interest i was hoping we might see it in the last set of results as i think it will set the cat amongst the pigeons when it arrives. Perhaps the next set.

I am trying not to reply to Starbright and the nonsense he post about PI’s and value, it is clear that he is trying to anchor thoughts to a value of 18p. Ironically Star wrote a very interesting post about anchoring to a value, perhaps not the best very idea.

I am confident that in time we will see new highs.

Thnaks for the great posts..

It’s only us PI’s...lol

This is an important deal for NCM as well as GGP, currently they are ploughing hundreds of millions into Telfer to keep it open and expending millions on Hav, with only a PFS to justify both spends.

By any measure Telfer is a liability to NCM until Hav produces or is shown to have a significant value.

One value that NCM can show is the cash worth of Hav as agreed with GGP, that value will need to be considered realistic by analysts, the value will be the agreed amount for the 5% times 14 for NCM and times 6 for GGP, because of course NCM pay the 5% of the value agreed to GGP.

In order for that value to a 'legitimate ‘ number, the process that is used to agree it will need to be transparent and the numbers attached to it will need to be validated by well crafted and robust underpinning assumptions

Those assumptions will be examined very closely by the investing community as well as potential predators.

Both GGP and NCM, will IMO , have engaged specialists to assist in this process , including Lawyers accountants and mining consultancies, all will be involved in preparing documents to inform the process and explain the assumptions. I would imagine the fees from both GGP and NCM together will be in 7 figures.

Once a deal is getting close,( lots of items will be agreed as the process continues) the lawyers will take plenty of time to draw up the final contract and the the final negotiations will take place, and then a deal is agreed.

I expect the deadline to be extended more that once, unless NCM told GGP unofficially to start getting ready for the negotiations some time ago, these things take a lot of time and effort and a deal worth billions of dollars ,that is vital to both parties future, will be scrutinised and discussed in great detail.

If the deal is rushed and ill thought through the management of both companies will be permanently damaged, so i am expecting great things as both Sandeep and SD are not fools.

Finally if the deal is as well crafted, valued appropriately, stands up to scrutiny and shows that Hav is considerably more than a 12 year project the then Telfer moves to being an asset to NCM then IMO their SP should respond positively, and hopefully GGP will as well.

All IMO of course.

Bamps- 50 years married the makes me happy to read.

I cant resist replying as some claims seem pretty farfetched to me.

1. The absence of notifications of holding evidence that no one or no entity is accumulating shares.

Last time i replied i evidenced Iofina based on aim where that very thing happened. But how about BT no 34 in the Ftse 100. two holdings notifications this year from Altice

0-12% on the 10th of june, 12-18% of the 14th of December

Share price on the 10th of june 191. Share price on the 24th oct 139 Closed on the 24th dec 170.

So 6% of the 34th biggest company on the LSE was bought whilst the shareprice declined just under 30% until a recovery to the end of the year. With no reporting just the two holdings notifications for 18%

Bt M Cap is 16 Billion so about 3 billion pounds worth of shares accumulated.

The BT share price follows a very similar pattern to what we have seen in GGP, i see that Star thinks this type of manipulation for a750 million company like GGP is Frankly ridiculous, tell that to BT shareholders they KNOW it's been happening.

2. Just us Pi’s trading. Almost every day the bid is hit multiple times by trades of 50, 100 or 200 thousand at time. Thats not ordinary PI’s Imo it could be a few HNW but it looks very coordinated to me. But then i am just a niaf and uneducated PI.

Finally anyone who puts in their posts 'As I’ve said before I think this trade is no more than picking up pennies in front of a steamroller,’ IMO is or has been heavily involved in trading shares on a day or intra day basis, the ‘smart boys/girls’ like use that to show how clever they are, and i haven't heard to round the more established financial services companies.

Well merry Christmas, time will tell if i am a tin hat poster or we might see notification or two that comes from left field.

Agreed on that is a great point from Sandgrounded, the price to sell since the announcement is up over 25%..

If it is the case the agreeable will be an understatement.

Every big mining company in Australia and perhaps one or two worldwide.

They will be running their own numbers baed on public information and what they can find out behind the scenes on what is likely to be one of the biggest Gold/Copper /Nickel finds in a Teir 1 jurisdiction for the last whenever.

If this 5% is terribly undervalued, the Newcrest is gone..what major would pass on buying newcrest with a hugely undervalued asset on its books.

So IMO it will be high fair value to fight off potential predators and put big number onto NCM books.

The devil will be in how the financial arrangement works between NCM and GGP, NCM will not want to pay a lump sum perhaps over period of a few years with a lot of the sum payable to be held against future mining costs.

All my speculation but I am sure in my mind that the majors will pounce on an Absurd valuation.

This will be major bone of contention, NCM use 1400 and GGp will want as near as spot as they are allowed, the difference is well over 20% right now.

So 10% difference in valuations is really quite likely.

IMO

They have also spent or are going to spend 162? million on the west dome to keep telfer going, and it will be interesting to know how they will allocate costs for ,doing all the necessary work to get to the decision to mine, including all the negotiations over sustainability issues.

Are they not also overhauling teller to have two processing trains? I forget the exact terms.

They employ squadrons of people to do all these submissions and have the knowledge and expertise that is almost impossible to buy and make things happen fast.

And they are the world leaders in block caving, that expertise has cost fortune to create and would be impossible for GGP to recreate.

We are lucky to be in a JV with them and hopefully it will be sensible deal on the 5%.

All IMO of course , as SD said what if GGp had discovered HAV after NCM had committed to another JV that came good...GGP would be waiting for years.

Nothing to see according to Starbright..he will coming on to say its a spike and sell at around 17 or 18P

If i am not mistaken.

If 5% of Hav is worth 30 million pounds then 100% of Hav is worth 600 million pounds.

We will own 25% of that 150 million pounds = 3.5 p a share.

We need 5% to be worth over 200 million pounds

I think!! maths not my strong point.

I say nearer 300 million for 5%

IMO to stop NCM going far too low and GGP far top high, they will come to agreement I am sure a 10% difference isa big difference so they should be able to get agreement.

If the price agreed is too low,Rio will begin like *****...it will be on the high side of FMV IMO

Buy the 5% before it gets too big!! Its worth a lot

Starbright turns upon and again to reassure us that

-all is well there are no hidden/dodgy trades
-that nobody and no entity can possibly accumulate any shares without appropriate notification and a sphere has been no such notifications its just Pi’s churning the book as they buy and sell on a whim.
- all us Pi’s are a bit short of experience and knowledge of how the market operates

He /she knows some stuff and is either here to show off or to try to convince us that knows exactly how it all operates and all is in order.

Also he/she is convinced this is a buy up to 18p.. apparently told us consistently.. i think almost more than 5 times now.

The narrative will change as the SP increases i am sure