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Lenz- thats correct its rolled up until cash arrives, so if you have 50 million fully drawn down, you pay 4 million first year, the next year you pay 8 % on 54 million and so on.

Some payday lender charge it monthly or used to , so at 10% on a hundred pounds 100 first month 10 pounds, next month its 10% of 110 , so 11 pounds and so on.

It was basically robbing the poorer members of society.

Credit cards love people that don't pay their full balance , interest has to be paid on invest that has inflated the principal.

This should be hammered into young people, I know because when i was young i paid plenty of it!!

You roll up the interest payments and get charged a higher rate of interest, the 50 million form NCM is 8% rolled up i believe.

So that debt is pricey understandably so. If we can get to 4 % rolled up its a decent deal.

The 8th wonder of the word according to Einstein, and i have attempting for 10 years to get the younger generation up to speed about this and how it apples to debt as well as savings, with some success and frustratingly not so much with others.

Some of them could have been overpaying their mortgages for the last 10 years and still have had a very good standard of living, instead they chose a really excellent standard of living and full mortgages...and they have degrees.!!

It will be a copper mine with gold adding some value...LOL

Dip- In one example i read ( big Pharma), both parties suggest arbitrators to use if they are required, they then have a separate process for agreeing which arbitrator is used.

In that case the arbitrator just chose and the other party paid all the fees.

There wasn’t any detail on how the arbitrator came to their decision. I also read that in some cases in the states sometimes one party is so unhappy they then take it to court, completely nullifying the point of using this type of arbitration.

Joe - I have know many directors who hated each other guts, but they never ever respected them, and they tried their utmost to get one over on them , sometimes regardless of cost.

The only way to sort it was for the CEO to get rid of one or both , if the CEO had the wherewithal to make that happen.

Thats in the corporate world.

I have also known in smaller business privately owned where the original founders fell out big time, basically their companies never thrived, they may have got wealthy personally, but the working atmosphere was rubbish, they had huge staff turnover and they lost clients because of it.

So my experience is quite different. Hence the post.

If the 5% goes to arbitration then IMO, the relationship between the companies will be very badly damaged, perhaps irreparably, the process is designed for both parties to come to the table with reasonable proposals based on reasonable and probably agreed assumptions. EG price of gold.

They both have the same information with this being a JV.

If they are so far apart that they cant get to a 10% difference, then that means that they regard each other as being unreasonable.

The arbitrator then picks one proposal and the loser pays both parties costs of arbitration, recipe for disaster, IMO if that happens, either the CEO disappears with his negotiating team to make things ok or its pistols at dawn every day for the rest of the time of the JV.

I am just beginning to fully understand how big a deal this is, i have been reading up on the use of the feasibility studies and how they impact on decision making.

I have just read an article on them by a McKinsey consultant and his final paragraph is,

'Feasibility studies are more than just a mandatory process step or stage gate; they are the last real opportunity for mining and metals project developers to thoroughly define and optimize a project business case and rigorously plan for execution and operations before the “clock starts ticking.” An owner may often wish to minimize study costs—which is good practice, broadly speaking—but any compromise or shortcut during FS inevitably leads to surprises during execution or production ramp-up. Investing in getting FS right could save the mining and metals industry some $100 billion-plus over the next five years. As the phrase goes, “pay now or pay more later.”’

He also point out a couple of cases where the a poor FS has been rejected by the investment committees of the major miners and how many FS are not fit for purpose.

Basically NCM have skipped past generally accepted best practice by committing huge amounts of time effort and cash by starting the decline, commissioning the west dome mining and keeping the operation going rather than starting to close it down or at least mothball parts where they can.

The whole of the industry must be looking at this in wonder.

So its better than i thought!!!

Thnaks Bamps

So if all goes well and prices stay around here, the JV will have around 1 billion dollars to invest over the next two years, to finance the next phase of development.

That seems to be a very nice position for GGP, owning 25% of a new telfer type mine, with little or no debt.

I think i will hold for a couple of years.

In the context of the daily volume we have seen for ages, 1.5 million in that time frame is very large IMO

Fantastic Dip thank you very much for these notes, they are very useful.

I suspect that Bamps millions is the likely reason that predators will be banging down the doors at GGP or indeed NCM, and NCM will be thinking how the devil do we fend them off..

It’s one thing the original partner getting the fruits of their labour and risks taken, it quite another if a Johnny come lately horns in with some big bucks offer.

It all going to heat up as we go through 2022.

I got the impression that the 5 years work built into a bid would persuade him to talk to shareholders , then the real fun would start.

IMO he has definitely been approached about it and that statement is a line in the sand that potential buyers would need to get close to.

The talk about bankers and being fully funded is also reminding anyone interested that GGP will not be in a position of weakness.

The difficulty with going to arbitration for GGP as i see it is, that the ‘broad range of outcomes’ mentioned by SD and previously pointed out by Dip66, is that the bottom range for inferred could well be close to zero, the upside could well be a lot higher but it will still be heavily discounted. . This is in the valim code if i am understanding it correctly.

I think the agreement needs to be done rather than go to arbitration, and IMO, SD is pointing to a ‘bargain price’ for NCM, but if anyone comes knocking for the remaining 25% that bargain was negotiated a few years ago, and the current price will be well in excess of said bargain price.

Hopefully i am completely wrong but i see the number for 5% clearing debts, financing the rest of the hav mine and other financing will need to get us to FCF. Basically IMO thats what SD has said.

I am not as bullish as i was hoping to be, but nothing that wont be sorted by FCF being generated.

I think Loyalty and Trust are major elements in business relationships.

Can you trust your customer, can they trust you, are you loyal to your people and are they loyal to you, do you have each others back in tough times, do you celebrate together and reward each other when things go well. Are you generous when you can be generous, can you ask for effort and commitment well above that which is required and get it.

Business is more than a monetary transaction, always has been and always will be.

I think that will be part of the process, you don't throw your partner under a bus, and i don't expect that to happen here.

IMO

Starbright will be on shortly to say this is impossible to happen and is merely a delusion of Niaf Pi’s that dominate this board..spoofing really.

Thats a big statement to make 99% certain that will be bought out., and it seems he is a chap who knows his onions.

The first thing NCM or anyone else ned to do to make that come true, is to get the board of GGP to make a recommended offer to shareholders, i think that will take some doing, SD has hung his hat on taking a small company to something much bigger, IMO than why he joined Salt lake Potash and then landed here.

He sees a huge future for GGP with a 25% stake in the JV giving the base to grow from, alongside that is the expert body he has built within the company alongside Callum to help fight off potential predators.

It will have to be a big number to get the board to recommend it to shareholders IMO, as the II’s are not 40 or 50% of the she holder register it is very difficult for predators to go hostile.

Interesting.

When they set out the process for agreeing the 5%, there is/was an option to move the deadline out if both parties agree, it was interesting that arbitration was brought in as the next step rather than moving the deadline.

Personally i couldn’t say they’re close or indeed far apart. I do think SD prefers it to be agreed in February as GGP can then negotiate with the banks to get credit lines in place for the work post the FS.

Getting significant credit lines inlace will take plenty of time. I think they will be needed as i think there will be big ramping activity and spend after the FS which GGP will have to fund their share.

Telfer has 11 million tons of processing earmarked for hav, so a big step ups in activity needed.

In nearly every interview he said multiple times., I am paraphrasing of course

Look- He said, we will unlock value through the drill bit...Shareholder value will be driven by the drilling bit, the drill bit will be spinning - Etc Etc.

So i am and was ok with that , thats the strategy. But you are banging on bait.

The he would follow the drill bit by saying, imagine if we found another Hav or even half a Hav, shareholder value will be immense,. many many times.

So i thought FFS you sound like an AIM ramper of a CEO, why on earth is the JV and Sandeep meeting him spout on like this.

Then some posters would point to industry experts saying in not so many words, you have found a once in a generation or even two generations, gold/ copper strike, the chances of another are minuscule to non existent.

Then we would have the hoots of laughter from the usual crew particularly at Hydro and his multiple Breccia pipes...

Well it looks like i was wrong and SD isn’t an AIM Ramper of a CEO.

Hopefully value will out before i pop my clogs

Hasn’t not haunts