Member Info for Canary3

He has been chairman there since may 2021, he bought 100,000 shares in march this year after strong results from the company at a cost 242,000. The results were materially ahead of expectations. So pretty risk free
and a sensible move that would have pleased his financial advisors

He has been here a few months and today bought a million quids worth, a move that would have IMO shocked his financial advisors.

I draw my own conclusions from these actions.

He spent 1 million I spent another 10k...my 10k is going to make the difference.

He only bought 1.1 million , its just not good enough, he needs to show some commitment

LOL

Just for fun, pre-covid we were in restaurant in London tables very close together and we got talking with young couple sitting next to us, mid 30's i would have said.

They turned out to work for an internet company in the travel sector and she said she worked on identifying and reporting on customer trends and so on , the tone in the voice was kind of, if you old people understand that i will fall off my chair.

I replied about working in said bank , and i told her that when we launched the front end wasn’t connected to the back end and it caused a bit of a problem, as we had 10,000 hits with completed applications in the next few days after the first TV advert went out.
All processed on paper then entered manually into the backend

To say she was surprised was bit of an understatement.

I worked as part of the team launching one of the first internet banks, the real visionaries of the time told stories about one day people would doing their banking in their own homes at their own convenience. We even had teams in the late 90’s working on mobile and TV routes to market.

And so it has come to pass with advantages and disadvantages to both parties. But overall a good thing IMO

The communication this morning ,if correct, means it is more likely to happen, they have created the ability to spin it out when they have the opportunity / desire.

They have just made statements including ,

1.70 materially undervalues the company.
That they deemed the unsalted offers insufficient to allow DD
That they are pursuing the company strategy as before.

What else do you want them to say.?

It could be with the other funds in Cyprus of course.

I won't go on about it after this post, but SD clearly says that we will have to repay the NCM debt prior to getting bank lending, its not at 50 million yet ( I think), but it was over 20 the last time it was mentioned.

The 5% going to arbitration is a problem as we need cash.

Until that is resolved this is a higher risk than it was 1 year ago.

I only posted because i bought back in as i said in the post. if you bothered to read it Project

Spondy the funding requirement was 123 million dollars ( 50 million covered by The nCM loan) but IMO it will be higher now, given the decline delay and inflation.

I took a loss equal to about 18 months pension.

I have posted a few times about my concern about funding and not about HAV. Its a given that Hav will be one of the stories for decades to come.

However the question is how will funding pan out, 1 year ago it all seemed very easy , we though the 5% would cover all of GGp’s requirements and perhaps we might need some bank funding and we thought that would be no problem.

Now the 5% seems to be disappearing into arbitration and SD mentioned on timeframes months but not years. Will the 5% be resolved before GGP needs to show funding required to move forward. ?

Interest rates are shooting up especially the 10 year , inflation is going up fast and the pound has deteriorated against the dollar.

We had a fund raise when the SP was 16 was a 10 discount from there, if we go back to the market for an equity raise IMO the cost will be high. Indeed the SP fall feels like one could be coming. IMO

For me to invest back to my previous level certainly on funding is required.

Now i bought back about 15% of my previous holding this morning mainly on the back of SD interview and i will buy back more if funding is addressed more fully in part 2.

IMO the risk has gone up significantly and i was blinded by the Asset and forgot about the companies finances.

We will see , i need to see 55p to break even with my new holding.

Good luck whatever route you choose to go

Get the staff sorted before the deal is done...

So I am a bit concerned about GGP being held to ransom as it were over their portion of the cash required to get to first ore, currently we have some cash after the last fundraise, 50 million debt funding from NCM and are in conversations with banks.

We know the funding hurdle is 123 million, taken care of 50 million of debt (NCM) and 73 million further requirement , that as at March 22.

SSD said that Banks want the 50 million debt or the part used cleared prior to lending , if i recall correctly he said we will need to deal with that ourselves.

The 5% is the route to clearing the debt and then freeing up the banks to lend.

For me the changing of the financial landscape over the last 6 months will make things more difficult to get funding on a PFS rather than FS and decision to mine. Additionally the lenders IMO will want to lend against the senior partners MRE not GGP’s.

The 5% is looking like it might take a long time to be agreed and costs will rising and with the decline taking longer , inflation rising and cash flow moving to the right, negotiations with the banks will be getting more difficult.

We also need to fund activities outside of the HAV prior to receiving cash from HAV.

So perversely I am very glad that the board has the ability to raise cash via equity up to 31% of the shares in issue, less the amount used for the recent equity raise. So they still have authority over more than a billion shares.

So regardless of the negotiations ongoing the financial future of the company is in the hands of the board and they will, I am sure, get the best possible outcome for shareholders.

I have positioned myself to take care of all possible eventualities and still retain a holding of just less than 7 figures.

I am not trying to be negative / scaremonger..its just my view of what might happen over the coming months on the financial side.

I thought Bamps post explains why a 250% increase in resource, (which by any stretch is absolutely remarkable), resultst in a less than 10% increase in share price.

I for one was pleased to read it, and gives me more insight into headlines v reality.

But each to their own Freddie

I don’t think a buyout by NCM is a foregone conclusion, and at the same time i don't think shareholders will worry at all about them buying GGP / Hav if the board recommends it.

On the second point, the results of the recent drilling on Brucejack have shown what great buy that is and shareholders must be delighted what that means for the future ( even if NCM SP went down on the day), and as far as i could tell only one broker came out and complained about dilution and the dividend. at the last results.

That broker is very small and runs a couple of funds, probably for the OZ super and they want divi’s. On the other hand they could of course be a stalking horse for other bigger II’s.

So I think if the board makes a case to buy the big II’s will wave it through especially as Hav is looking bigger and bigger.

As to why NCM might want to go forward with GGP as a partner, i think that buying Hav or GGP, will clear away a legacy issue and that could provoke a takeover of NCM.

Better perhaps to drag on the 5%,(i thought it interesting that SD or some other mentioned that the 5% would be done in months rather than years, (first time i have heard years mentioned,) and then once the 5% issue is sorted there will be more protracted negotiations on the remaining 25%.

For this scenario to work there is a potential buyer is waiting for NCM to do these rather tricky negotiations and once the are done they can then buy a clean company as it were.

In the meantime , first ore gets closer , NCM other projects get closer to monetisation and NCM share price rises as time goes on, making them less vulnerable to take -out.

Fanciful i am sure, but in my little world worth thinking about.

I will be disappointed if it goes to Arbitration, however it might be that we are now seeing the final stages of the negotiation, NCM said in their release last night , that they were still in negotiations within the terms of the JV.

GGP say we want to move on from the PFS and use the GGP updated MRE.

It all about the terms of the JV IMO

Perhaps we might get an agreement at the 11th hour , as we did back in the days of the union management negotiations..

Thanks

Has the date changed from this RNS.?

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-03/220304_Greatland%20Gold%20releases%20separate%20Havieron%20Mineral%20Resource%20and%20Ore%20Reserve%20estimate%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf

As I have posted before i have my eye on Funding, currently IMO there is little or no chance of debt funding for GGP from a tier one lender, until NCM issue their MRE at the end of June with their results.

That MRE needs to mirror or be better than GGP’s. and likely that is a major factor in the funding decisions for GGP, if it is not as ‘strong’ as GGP MRE , then lenders will use the NCM one and will want to understand why they are different.

The fun starts at the end of June ...