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1.
It's often difficult to pinpoint precisely why a company's share price moves up, a good example being that of London-listed SolGold whose stock price has spiked 26% in a month. The company, which owns the hugely prospective Cascabel/Alpala copper-gold concession in Ecuador has long been touted as a bid target.
In the past, the news has been less than bright, marked by boardroom rows and stakeholder disagreements, while, more recently, a state of emergency was declared in Ecuador, stemming from armed conflict that exploded between Latin American drugs cartels. There's no suggestion that a bid for SolGold is imminent, so market observers have been wondering what's behind the biggish uptick in the shares, although at 8p, they're still a long way off the 46p of seven years ago.
A number of theories are doing the rounds. One broker told this writer that for the first time in awhile, the phone has been ringing with calls from retail investors considering buying the stock, so perhaps there was an appetite for explorers with "standout assets".
I have it
I'd like to see a conditional non-dilutive funding package announced for Cascabel with the condition precedent being the ESIA and IPA.
Why a conditional package subject to ESIA and IPA?
The ESIA and IPA are expected within say next 4-8 weeks, and so any interested party wishing to control cascabel or Solgold would have to move on us quite quickly. This creates immediate FOMO.
Its absolutely clear that BHP wants the ESIA before they make any further move however the above announcement would force BHP and others to bid now.
Why would BHP want to wait till ESIA is finalised? Just read their environmental track record in brazil.
Bob has his number mate, don't worry about that
https://www.pehub.com/wyloo-metals-completes-take-private-noront-buyout/
Twiggy, is that you?
45 tradings days till we get to Hannam's big June and circa 60 days left of cash.
Are we waiting for the new financial year before funding news is pushed out.
..... ermm, we don't have sufficient cash to get to mid May so I wouldn't waste your breath re MSCI chat.
We simply have to wait for the funding news to arrive.
There is no point speculating any more.
Its a matter of 'when', not 'if'.
Good to see Citi have a good relationship also with Newmont, including Forrest
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/potential-northern-star-interest-in-newmont-assets/news-story/ed36a1644f337c6fd773d919a6c58ac5
There is no way in hell Mather is going to sell anything to BHP.
He cannot stand them.
Thankfully we do not need BHP and if they want it, they will need to go hostile.
Chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://research.hannam.partners/open/b865134d-0bb5-4b96-ab52-064627e3bafa/Solgold_46_20240320_Blanca%20Update.pdf/64167b7c-fe4f-4080-92a3-72c01cf941d2
Needalife, a question:
With BHP's environmental track record in LATAM, would locals and the government make life easy for BHP in defining/securing an ESIA?
There is no chance on hell they would be able to secure, hence they are hiding behind Solgold.
When Solgold concludes the ESIA, it will be a new ball game
Interesting...
"Our current published valuation of GBp63/sh is based on the 2022 PFS. "
So the revised ramp-up PFS was just a process to buy time. So why buy time? Maybe to conclude the ESIA which is what BHP want before they move...
Sharketmare, when you don't have the capability as a business, you retain and build it.
Just an FYI - Newmont is about to make a lot of former newcrest employees redundant.
Do you remember Craig Jones? Does he have a big team? Do they know much about Cascabel already?
We can build an experienced operational team in two seconds. The industry is awash with experienced professionals with certain levels of block caving experience
Rule of thumb for takeovers:
1. Market valuations range from 1 - 5% for assets pre development.
2. Market valuations range from 5 - 10% for assets that are being developed and or are operating.
I'd like to see the following:
- secure funding for Alpala which allows us to start developing asap / anyone wanting cascabel will likely need to pay a range of 6-7% of total resource (6% = 234p / 7% = 273p).
- sale of porvenir - proceeds used to explore/define TAM + Bianca Nieves and anything else of substance.
The question is really, do the likes of BHP or other spectators really want Scott and Nick to add another 50-100B to the value of our current total resource holding. If they don't, they will need to pay up. If they are happy little passive vegemites right now, I am all too happy to sit back and watch Solgold take the same trajectory Fortescue took over 10-15 years.
If we are able to secure non-dilutive funding for Alpala project, a £6b offer for Solgold is within an achievable range
Mathers, noted and agreed
Tesla1- are you 6 years old?
You seem very intimidated
And another 230k
Hold onto your hats