Member Info for Bustard

Where do we find the Edison report, please?

Thank you

Patryk - I am a bit surprised that gold has gone up more, but again, you just don’t know exactly what trades are unwinding and what is happening. Studying this stuff on a daily basis doesn’t give you any good idea of the overall trends.

Patrick – bigger tides are affecting the shares. People panicking generally brings down the whole market. Not least, investors who have borrowed to be long and then find themselves having to sell to meet there obligations or worrying about being underwater

Nope Patryk. No stop loss. Basically with a volatile share like this, I worry about the Mike problem.

If gold can hold at over $5000 per ounce into the medium term of (ie not a flash in the pan) then I’d be amazed if we don’t get to £2 and more - obviously also dependent on no operational or other problems, but these all seemed pretty well managed

The share price doesn’t yet reflect the underlying profitability of the business at $5000+ per ounce. And that’s because, like a boat, the tide of the gold price rising or falling causes our little vessel to move even more spectacularly. And then we’ve got all this geopolitical stuff, and people getting out of shares because of margin calls, all of which hits our share price. Nothing whatsoever to do with fundamentals. Which is why you just have to keep calm in these situations, and if you’re brave, buy more shares.

All my purchasing was done between 10p and 80p and I’m sitting on an average of 34p.

There are obviously some life changing gains here

The other point, Patryk, is don’t be overwhelmed by FOMO - fear of missing out. If you’ve made a wonderful profit and you can sell it £2, and it makes a difference to you financially, there is nothing but nothing wrong with that.

Once I’ve sold a share, I never ever look at what has happened to the share price subsequently. Absolutely zero point in doing so.

Truth is, Patryk, I don’t know what is my exit price.

And I doubt I would sell all of them in one go

My thinking has been very much like Mike’s with regard to how the price would progress an I suspect we are both surprised with how rapidly it has risen of late . You’ve been much nearer the mark in that regard. But I know enough about investing that what goes up unquestionably can go down, and it’s not at all impossible for us to be trading back at 120 or 130 were gold price to fall suddenly.

So if you’ve been in a long time, taking something off the table makes plenty of sense if the sums matter to you materially financially. That’s all about de-gearing your balance sheet.

But I tend to be a long-term Holder of shares. I’m never one who is in and out. I try and take a view on what I think might happen over the next two or three years. And I have a pretty warm feeling about this company in that regard because I I’m pretty confident production numbers are going to rise. I’m also confident we have a good management team.

And if this would happen, we would probably be compounding the share price at 15–20%. Still very nice to have.

So production and management are not our gamble.

Our gamble is whether the gold price can hold somewhere around where it is now. (And also that some unforeseen seen thing doesn’t hit us out of the blue).

My modelling (and I think Mike’s) has nothing to do with AI. It is simply spreadsheet modelling which is not hard to do in this business. I’m very wary of using AI for calculations -and I write as a fan of AI

There’s no doubt we are approaching £2 faster than I expected it to happen. Although, of course, a reverse is still possible.

Where the SP can go beyond there is the imponderable.

My own view is that £2.50 or even towards £3 is possible if gold were to hold somewhere in the low $5000 per ounce range, and assuming the company avoids operational hiccups.

But I’m sure the big multiplications in share price that those of us have been in this for a few years have enjoyed are now over in the shorter term, unless there is just some crazy, bitcoin / Tesla like rise in the price of gold, which I think is very unlikely, but who knows?

But if you want a leverage gamble on the gold price, investing in miners is the way to do it. If gold went up by 50%, our shares would probably treble. I just don’t think it will happen, but that’s just a judgement; I don’t have a crystal ball

For me, the interesting question, as I’ve written previously, is all about production levels. If these could grow from 300,000 to 500,000 over the next four or five years, and Gold price were to hold steady / slowly rise, then there’s no doubt the share price would rise very nicely and steadily over that period. Would it reach £5? I think that’s a big ask because I doubt the PE is going to rise much above 12. If gold prices hold steady-ish & rise slowly, a doubling of the SP from where it is today is a distinct possibility. And not particularly far-fetched.

I’m writing all this as much for my own benefit because I’m sitting on the single largest pound gain I have ever made on a listed company and wondering what to do next.

Everyone will have their own decisions to make, largely based on two factors: personal risk appetite and personal financial circumstances.

I’m enjoying reading everyone’s thoughts – keep it up please.

Mark

I know I shouldn’t, but when one’s got such a substantial gain resting on this thing, it’s very difficult not to keep looking at the share price.

Keep up the comments, rookie girl, we all enjoy reading them

I’ve always thought Patrick was too much of an optimist, but at the moment he’s the man whose instincts are most in tune with what’s happening in the market. .

Thanks Viable.

I love how you find these links

The way we all share ideas and challenges is tremendous.

Interesting point about Iran.

I wish you all a great weekend

Mark

Thanks Viable.

I love how you find these links

The way we all share ideas and challenges is tremendous.

Interesting point about Iran.

I wish you all a great weekend

Mark

Mike – if I use 31.5% tax rate, I get virtually exactly the same answer as you. I know nothing about South African taxes; have you gone for the higher rate because of the progressive nature of corporation tax in that country?

Anyway, we’ve had a marvellous week; they won’t all be like this.

Patryk thought we might get to 170 this week and he isn’t far off – congratulations to that man.☺️

Re your final question Mike, my only other goldie is a real gamble.

STGO. Steppe Gold.

Quoted on the Toronto stock exchange.

Can anyone see why it could be a multi-bagger??

😂

Thanks, Mike.

I agree with everything you write here and our models produce almost identical figures. I’ve got a bit of interest income and that might count for the difference.

I particularly agree that a PE of 11 being perhaps a bit high.

FTSE 100 is not out of the question, which would definitely provide a bump

You make an excellent point about the dividend. I was very grateful to receive mine. I’ve got some Aviva shares and I love the dividend.

Cheers

Mark

Jjhbev

I too tend to think the production for 27 will be a little over 300,000. But I’m ever the optimist. There is also the bump from Australian copper revenues, although I’m unclear as to timing and net contribution.

But the material issue re long term growth (absent Au rising more) remains what will happen to production beyond 27? My best guess, based on the incomplete information we have, is that it would grow by something approaching another 50% over the following 4 to 5 years. Nice but not astonishing.

I apologise to everyone for banging on about future production, but it’s what I am trying to get my head around and any insights welcome

When I first bought this stock, a long time ago, I always had the feeling it would be a multi bagger, although it’s beaten my most optimistic hopes. I don’t have that feeling anymore and I’m trying to rediscover it.

Of course if gold were go up to $7 or $10,000 ounce, this would have the desired effect, but I’d be surprised if that happened.

Thanks, Mike.

I think you’re correct that we independently got the 325000 ounces for ‘27 from the Edison report. But bearing in mind that it is sponsored by the company, and surely reviewed by them, I’m surprised in the decline for ‘27 between the two reports – the H2 and the Edison. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I agree with you that the 27 production figure is likely to only be marginally higher than the 26. Thereafter it looks as if there will be steady production increases but no overnight leaps. My feeling is that in four or five years years time, production will be about 50% higher. That’s unless we’re missing something obvious in the H2 report, or if more capacity from elsewhere were to be brought on stream.

My model for 27 based on a gold price of $5000 an ounce and 300,000 ounces sales, an ASCI of $1950 and 10% cost inflation elsewhere suggest a post tax profit about $620 million. i.e. Up on 26 but not spectacularly so. If these figures were achieved, a share price in the mid - higher £2 range would seem about right on a PE of 11. The PE might be a bit optimistic. I can’t see the PE going much higher than that absent runaway gold price. If that were to happen, of course the share price could go much higher.

Trying to model the share price three or four years out – for instance for 2030, all gets a bit fanciful, because the gold price and production numbers are just guess work. There’s no doubt that the share price could continue to rise nicely steadily if gold were to keep going up and production to increase by, say, 50% over that period but you really are in the country of lots of “what if and maybes” with that type of modelling.

I suppose the main point I’m making is that there is no obvious huge leap in production just around the corner to turbo charge revenue and profits.

Mark

Patryk. I hope you meant Bustard. 😂😂😂. It’s a large bird.

More likely to see 150.

Volatility is the name of the game

There was nothing wrong with your English, Johnny. What you wrote was clear.