Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
Yea, that is my analysis too, based on recent transactions we are way undervalued. But seeing how many I have to convince that gas prices being low really isn’t that big of a deal in the end for I3, I understand why our share price is dropping.
I would rather keep I3 and have them buy another player in Canada to grow if this keeps up… Im content with my placement and the management
Luckily for us gas is still a very domestic system. As we’ve seen in the past, Henry hub prices has barely any effect in Canada.
Also I3 has a very nice price collar for gas in Q1 that should cover any downturn easily. And one mild winter in europe won’t guarantee the next will be.
The First cold spell early december still got us the highest electricity bill ever here in the north
Also note that 2450bopd of oil is hedged to a low of $80, 3/4 of those barrels have a high cap of $90 aswell. So our dividend is kind of protected by the defensive hedge plan. i also like the collar on AECO gas for q1 5,8 - 10,09 CAD/GJ
I still wonder, the cheaper divi caused by a buyback is nowhere near in a return of capital calculation to me.
Note that larger investors cannot buy or sell when volume is this low, creating a fake demand in the form of buybacks could very well be sold into by shares otherwise locked up due to low volume.
I don’t see any major benefits of buybacks in comparision to dividends.
Wow I totally missed that but they have added a full section about it in their presentation. Talking of the need for water processing and there mentioning BFPD (barrrels of fluids per day) of 10-13000 where the water cut is between 90-97% on their older wells… thats huge
GGG
For the 12500/75$ Yearly fcf equalling 60 MUSD is in a Matrix in their own presentation
So you arent critical of below statement
”Excellent well 13H results. Well 13H successfully tested at over 8,000 bopd during its first week of production and has averaged approximately 6,200 bopd month to date ending November 14, ”
Meaning that 50% of total production is reported to come from the latest well alone, that all other recent wells are intentionally restrained? Seems weird to Max out a well risking it watering out instead of stewarding all wells at an equally restrained rate to me.
They are clearly maxing their latest wells for flashy RNS releases.
GGG just adding things together. Also listening to the CEO of AXL it seems a lot of the oil near the Andes behave like this because of the water pressure. So you could have high production rate/Opex/decline rate and end up drying out the wells fast, or you strangle the well early, get less flashy initial results but lower water cut and opex in the end.
Anyhow, just read the headlines of their well results and they came online at 7-8-9-12-11 etc thousand BOPD in the RNS but on the production reports total production is nowhere close on a quarterly perspective.
In their own Matrix 75 dollar oil and 12500 BOPD only gives 60 million dollars i FCF next year.
Now in Done discussing PTAL
GGG Ptal seem to have huge decline rates on top of their risky nature geo-political wise.
A lot of money is locked up in debt to Petroperu
Since last year we have seen 5-6 wells coming online with 7-12000 BOPD, yet no quarter has higher than 15000 BOPD yet and their current ”production ability” if not capped by limitations in barges was announced to be 20000 BOPD just recently.
So not all live and well? There is a reason the Bond is not paid in full yet and that is not that they are sitting on the money
If we follow your assumptions these hedges will always incur losses despite the direction the asset price goes. The logics would assume if we predict a lower price in the future that the hedges placed today would be in profit in the future.
Its just interesting that you both calculate a 15% decrease in asset prices along with a huge hedge loss.
But if that is your belief I won’t argue, in september we had a 10000GJ/day hedge on gas which was 17% in profit campared to the Monthly average.
But again, my belief is that your ”ultra” realistic calculations are tweaked downward as usual, except when we talked buybacks and I was assumed the negative one :)
@tony
I dont get the hedging loss that you have calculated in a lowering price environment. Most hedges would be placed at a higher price and thus generate profit no?
Anyhow, I expect 30 Mil to be plausible for 2023 :) I also believe such a move would be beneficial to the Share price
The decline in oil price is countered a whole lot by the dollar index. In pounds we are still making a lot of money.
And the best is yet to come, Anas alhaji is predicts the real rise of oil&gas by q3 next year
Also I think what shubham has pointed out several times. That the cherry spots in the current on-shore fields are all used up. Even bears today (due to recession) are pointing out that next year is when we will really see the effects of the low amount of expanding oil production.
India oil demand is projected to grow by 20% per year, even in a recession. Just look at covid where indian oil demand kept going up even in lookdown periods.
Just you wait and we will see who got it right.