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They did yes, from 14 to 8. But as far as I’ve seen only on the aircraft with the new club suite.
Business has got better as far as hard product goes but personally the check in, security, and lounge experience is not that great in comparison at all. You’re lucky to even get a seat in galleries south lounge, infact after the last few times I gave up all together and started using T5B. The club suite is a lot closer as far as hard product goes but it still a clear cut below First.
They won’t get rid of it in my opinion, they’ve taken it off a lot of routes where their competitors don’t offer it (Toronto for example), which is funny because that’s mine and my partners most frequented route and we often flew with BA because they offered First and Air Canada didn’t…..lol
BB. From a holder….They don’t. They’ve retired the entire fleet of jumbos and have delays in their 2022 aircraft orders which was only partially replacing their ASKs. That said it’s only really a problem when they need aircraft that they don’t have, and at the moment the majority of planes in long haul are only around 2/3 full.
About a neutral set of results in my opinion. Pretty confident there won’t be any need to tap investors for cash given the projected loss in Q4, just got to hope there’s no changing in the analysts reports that a return to profitability could be on the cards as soon as H1 2022. Nothing too concerning emerging from COP26 either. Only other short term concern would be the potential introduction of winter restrictions to travel so fingers crossed we don’t see that happen.
Hi BB,
Bit of a busy day yesterday...
Just to clarify the point of my post was to clarify the lack of distinction provided by Fugazi on Gross vs Net burn as he does regularly get the two muddled up (probably as they didn't cover it in the wolf of wall street movie). It is the case that Gross burn is most commonly looked at in new companies, as they tend to generate very little revenue it gives a much clearer indication of exactly how long it is until they will run out of cash (financial runway). With established companies net loss is really the figure of most relevance, it's a little trickier with airlines as the revenue and COS does vary drastically in summer compared to winter, so comparing it on a Q v Q basis is a bit tricky, a good comparison would be comparing to the relevant quarter last year.
As far as the rest of it goes, I would agree with you on the vouchers, this will likely continue into next year. However the average load factor required for profit in 2019 was (off the top of my head) in the 70% range. If you have a look at the prices AORN they are significantly higher for next summer than they were for the summer of 2020 during this time in 2019. We fly across the pond several times a year as my partner is from over there and when she flew over last Christmas she was the only person in F both ways, yet one week ago club on the A350 was roughly 90% full. We're also flying across for Christmas this year (same dates) and both club and WTP on the 787 are all but sold out (fortunately we booked before Canada opened). Now considering there's still various restrictions in place for those that haven't been vaccinated, and also some inconveniences for those that have, it does imply that demand will recover to a profitable level when the governments decide they want to let it.
Fugazi is talking about gross burn (operating costs) which is as close to an irrelevant figure you can have in a company that isn't newly formed and generates revenue. It was briefly relevant during peak covid due to the lack of revenue coming in however now it's net burn that's the only thing worth paying attention to. Sadly there are people (like Fugazi) that don't know the difference between the two or the relevance of each figure, it's just copy and pasted out of the RNS.
When we see the net burn on the 5th we can gauge what the financial runway is with their current leverage. As of their last update in July they did have a further $1.755bn undrawn revolving credit facility so the question will be can they maintain a strong enough cash position to run a full operation if required next summer. Q4/Q1 have never historically been very good for airlines, the only slightly benefit is once the US opens some of the bookings that would have been made in Q3 should happen in Q4.
Yes it’ll certainly go up, they’re literally investing money and ramping up operations left right and centre. Net loss is the only interesting one, we’ll see what it says on the 5th….
If you want to panic about cash burn a ftse 100 company isn’t a great place to start, a newly registered company might be though?
Ah ok, so you don’t have one, I did give you a freebie by correcting cash gone to cash burn for you. By stating €150m gone, you imply €150m loss, when infact during Q2 the net loss was just under half of that weekly while operating at about 21% capacity (which is significantly less than it is at current). I’d hazard a guess at the moment the operating flights are averaging 60-70%. So your figures are probably way off. Almost definitely still a net loss though, I got one do welcome your alternative viewpoint to a degree, but please make sure you get your figures correct, or at least close to correct before posting.
I think it depends on the point at which the funds decide this becomes a value share. I felt it was correctly valued at around £1.80 so I will be buying back in today. I highly doubt you’ll have to worry about a RI in the short term, if it were to happen I wouldn’t think it’d be done before transatlantic travel has restarted. They’d want the share price to be a lot higher than it is now before announcing.
Flyer the pension deficit has been around for a very very long time. The likes of Fugazi have only learned about it very recently, however the pension scheme and its recipients are as keen as anyone for IAG to be profitable, because if IAG ultimately don’t make money, then they won’t get any. So albeit a liability, it is a very long term one, and it’s well within their interest not to hinder IAG and their positioning for any recovery.
You really do have no idea what you’re talking about. I sold out of IAG at the end of September after a 2 week position up a little over 25%. It’s not that I feel this stock is overvalued I just feel that it is reasonably valued and therefore there’s currently better short term growth options out there (a word of advice easyJet isn’t one of them).
I will probably buy back in here depending on how the booking numbers look for NA as that in itself will give a strong indication as to the likelihood of a rights issue. You may find out a few months afterwards from a broker update if you’re lucky….lol
BB, the share price was down at 135p, it is now at over 180p. The specific date will have only moved it by a few % because it is just confirming what people already knew. Everyone already knew that the US was opening in November, that’s why the share is up around 30% in the last month (also why it has significantly outperformed EZJ).
The fact you almost seem to be praying for a RI to happen to save face comes across a bit narcissistic, say well done to the people that got it right and accept that you didn’t on this occasion (which is fine because no one gets it right all the time).
Have a good day.
https://twitter.com/tofly_totravel/status/1444725437284880384
If they were going to do a RI they would be aiming to do it prior to a crash while the SP is high to minimise dilution. Only reason I can see one happening is to raise funds for a faster scale up if things start picking up rapidly next year, otherwise there’s adequate liquidity. Seems they’re still happy carrying a staff surplus into next year which is a good sign if nothing else. Enjoy your day all
BB no one is denying there will be change in the industry. Airbus are already making prototypes for electric and hydrogen aircraft, BA recently flew a 320 on SAF which had a cut of 62% in carbon emissions.
I repeat, the large companies will swallow up the emerging new tech companies to control the speed of the roll out but they’re all acutely aware of the changes coming. It’s basic business.
Capacity is determined by slots and aircraft seats, there was the same number before and during the pandemic. Slight reduction in seats coming due to 747/380 being phased out of service but for the most part nothing major.
Second runway at Gatwick would add a lot of capacity to the southeast. End of that consultation is in early December.