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Not a competitor in any sense.

That's good news then!

Https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=AVCT.L

Recommended SELL on Friday at CoB

At 47p

😂

Policy paper: 10 Year Health Plan for England: fit for the future

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/10-year-health-plan-for-england-fit-for-the-future

The ABPI response: https://www.abpi.org.uk/media/news/2025/july/abpi-response-to-nhs-10-year-health-plan/

And Google's AI summary of affect on clinical trials: https://www.google.com/search?q=How+will+the+UK+government+%2710+year+health+plan%27+affect+clinical+trials

The original? Published 16 June 2025

Press release: Unprecedented boost for clinical trials under 10 Year Health Plan

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/unprecedented-boost-for-clinical-trials-under-10-year-health-plan

A sample:

"In recent years, the UK has fallen behind as a global destination for these trials, with patients and the wider economy missing out. It takes around 100 days to set up a trial in Spain, but around 250 days in the NHS. The plan will see commercial clinical trial set-up times fall to 150 days or less by March 2026 - this will be the most ambitious reduction in trial set-up times in British history.

"Currently, set-up processes for clinical trials take too long as a result of unnecessary bureaucracy and duplication of activities across different agencies and sites.

"Government will cut set-up times for clinical trials. Currently, trials have to agree separate contracts with each part of the NHS they want to be involved. The plan will introduce a national standardised contract which can save months of wasted time, as well as simplifying paperwork to remove duplication on technical assurances.

"This means if any authority asks for evidence from a study, they can provide it once without having to spend time reframing that evidence differently to meet a separate criteria for another authority.

"In the coming weeks, the government will publish its 10 Year Health Plan. Through the plan, we will restore our position as a world leader in clinical trials, so we attract the world’s greatest minds and drive vital investment into the UK. This will spur economic growth, improve the standard of care to support a healthier population, and make the NHS more financially sustainable."

But there's more, including comment by experts.

But you don't know, you just surmise.

The only HNWI I know of who took part in the placing is Myles McNulty. I'm not saying he did and I'm not saying he didn't but he is a LTH who also trades Avacta. Tbh, in his position, I would have sold a fair whack at 50-55p (pocketing a 66.7 to 83.3% profit on those shares) and looked to reinvest after the spike. Still a LTH and even more of a HNWI. I'm not saying he did, but he didn't get to where he is by passing up opportunities such as that.

@opti_mystic, the terms of the placing were given in the RNS. If you can point out where in the terms it says there is a lock-in period then there is a lock-in period. Otherwise it is an open question as to whether the HNWIs who took the shares in the placing have been selling them.

@LiveLongnProsper, there is also the AACR-NCI-EORTC conference in Boston, 22-26 October, which follows on immediately after ESMO (17-21 October in Berlin).

To quote the Avacta pipeline: "The AVA7100 program is in the preclinical setting and is anticipated to have candidate selection in 2H 2025 with a potential IND in 2H 2026" so we may hear more about that program (animal studies for instance), which was first presented in a poster at last year's EORTC-NCI-AACR in Barcelona ( https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/FAP-AFFDC_Poster_SS44.09-2_v1.3-FINAL.pdf ):

"AVA7100 Results

"A poster titled “Affimer® Drug Conjugates (AffDC) targeting Fibroblast Activation Protein-α deliver highly toxic warheads to the tumor microenvironment by leveraging the pre|CISION® release mechanism” include data demonstrating that exposure of tumor cell line or fibroblast cell co-cultures to AffDCs results in drug cleavage, release of the warhead and tumor cell kill as a bystander function.

"Specifically, the key findings from the poster demonstrate:

• With non-internalizing Affimer protein binding and extracellular warhead release by FAP, the AffDC optimizes the bystander effect, leading to effective killing of antigen-positive and antigen-negative tumor cells.

• AffDCs have an antigen-binding region of 14kDa (single-domain) or 28 kDa (two-domain) that is 10-20% of the size of an antibody, optimizing tumor penetration. AffDCs may be rapidly engineered for optimal biophysical and functional characteristics.

• The FAP AffDC molecules exhibit a broad range of FAP binding (including potency up to single-digit picomolar, pM) combined with highly tumor-specific warhead release by leveraging the preCISION linker to release warhead directly in the tumor microenvironment and target that delivery to tumors with low FAP expression."

- - - - - - - - - - -

Or maybe Avacta are ready to present a third candidate in the AVA6k PDC program. Or maybe both.

Largely agree, but how do you know they are sticky hands?

HNWI ≠ LTH

I think this will drift down on no further news. Then McNulty will produce an Xcreation.

I think Avacta's platform scores pretty highly in that analysis! Particularly with the company's IP - there is almost 10 years left in which to patent new pre|CISION substrates! And, as we've seen with AVA6103, that happens before IND work begins and just some 18 months before Phase 1 clinical trials start in what is a highly streamlined process that Avacta has now got going what with pre|CISION-specific in vitro studies and animal models, proven platform and use of AI to identify disease targets.

Well I doubt they got to be HNWIs by passing up the opportunity of a quick 70+% return. As to whether they have been keeping or selling their allocations, that could depend on whether there was a lock-in period assosiated with the placing or not. The terms of the placing were given but are, to me at least, very complex.

Share price being held down by the MMs to let their mates out.

I hope there's a 'bidding war' that will drive the buyout price up to where we'll all be happy. What Avacta has is such a prize, there should be one but nothing is certain in this life. If there isn't one, I hope CC and crew aren't tempted to recommend a lowish offer on their understanding that the acquiring company will see they well with guaranteed top jobs or huge payoffs. The shares have traditionally been majority (large majority) held by PIs but those include the traders, LTHs who want to get out for whatever reason, and LTHs with very low average prices and there's always the possibility that the enough of these would vote for that lowish offer and swing the result that way.

The bashers appear when the share price declines. The pub bore is no exception.

Https://www.google.com/search?q=Pharma+companies+facing+patent+cliff+in+oncology

AI Overview

(Graphic of 'Global patent expires and erosion of projected revenue' - https://tinyurl.com/44ewesfz ) Several major pharmaceutical companies are facing significant revenue losses as patents expire on their top-selling oncology drugs, a phenomenon known as the patent cliff. This includes companies like Merck, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Johnson & Johnson, whose blockbuster medications like Keytruda, Eliquis, and Darzalex, respectively, are approaching patent expiration. These companies are implementing various strategies, including pipeline diversification, operational streamlining, and strategic partnerships, to mitigate the impact of these losses.

Specific examples and strategies:

Merck: Facing the loss of exclusivity for Keytruda, Merck is actively diversifying its portfolio beyond oncology, with a focus on cardiometabolic and immunology assets.

Bristol Myers Squibb: With Eliquis and Opdivo nearing patent expiration, BMS is leaning towards operational streamlining and external innovation through partnerships.

Johnson & Johnson: J&J's multiple myeloma treatment, Darzalex/Faspro, is also facing patent expiration, and the company is working on strategies to address this.

Other companies: Companies like AstraZeneca, while also facing patent losses, are somewhat insulated by a robust pipeline and strong innovation.

General strategies: Companies are employing strategies like life cycle management, patent thickets, and focusing on high-growth therapeutic areas like oncology to navigate the patent cliff.

The broader implications: Graphic o Revenue loss: Blockbuster drugs can lose up to 80% of their revenue within the first year of generic competition.

Industry-wide impact: The patent cliff is a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry, with over $200 billion in annual revenue at risk between now and 2030.

Strategic shifts: The patent cliff is prompting pharmaceutical companies to rethink their R&D strategies and focus on areas with strong long-term potential.

M&A activity: The pressure from the patent cliff may also lead to increased mergers and acquisitions as companies seek to bolster their pipelines and revenue streams.

The patent cliff in oncology: (Graphic of 'Pharma patent cliff by year and drug (all therapeutic areas)' - https://tinyurl.com/yp8x6dda ) The expiration of patents for key cancer drugs highlights a significant challenge for pharmaceutical companies, as oncology is a high-growth therapeutic area. Companies are actively seeking new oncology targets and investing in areas like precision medicine and immunotherapies to address the changing landscape.

Original source: https://www.daiichisankyo.com/rd/open_innovation/our_interests/#themeA1

@NIgb, I saw that as well. Very strange. 51.366, then suddenly 52.00, then immediately 53.00, then straight back to 51.366. Was looking for a higher ask though as I'm only trading just under £10,000-worth and last bought at 48.75. I'm sure it'll go higher than 53p at some point.

The 60.00p trades (+70,000 and -75,000 shares) were both recorded as being at 08:00:42 yesterday and the 56.50p trades (+20,101 and -25,101 shares) were recorded as being at 12:38:30 yesterday. Late reports.

What's not being made much of is that the AVA6103 patent will expire in September 2045.

Exatecan is already well characterised. The pre|CISION platform (the specificity of the dipeptide) is proven in the clinic. AVA6103 has excellent preclinical data. The collaboration with Tempus AI will speed up clinical development.

The sum result of all these is that AVA6103 could speed through the clinical trial phases and spend a loooong time on the market under patent protection, longer than other drugs. For such a killer drug, that has to be added value for the drug and hence for the company.