Member Info for Bridgedogg1

Hey, I'm over from Angus, just to let you know many holders over there were hoping for 3p+ per share and expect the 1.4p offer to be rejected. 5 other bidders have shown interest but SOU first to throw in the hat. Its a good buy on the face of it, gas well producing soon (hipefully - not flowing yet!) but a fairly low hedge kicks in around June. However considering the size of SOU primary asset and the current low mcap i think its absolutly crazy to dilute by 30% for such a relatively small asset, I mean it will only bring in a few million profit per year. Anyway, all the best.

If we'd said 6 months ago we had an upcoming drill targetting 1.9bn barrels with a 50/50 chance of success this would ahve rocketted up to £2 on anticipation. The fact that it was dropped unexpectedly on the market has left many wrong footed, given a golden oppotunity to PIs but the market doesnt know what the hell is going on. I think it just doesnt like that we didnt know most of it was there. CPR will bring them around along with increased MCAP to get the funds buying in. In the meantime we have a gift of a share price and many will be kicking themselves for not buying in/more at sub 50p when they could.

Disappointing but not entirely surprising that we had a pull back from touching 40p to 38.5p, this range was the peak pre suspension and on the bounce following the drop after suspension lifted. Confident we will see at least 50p this week but might take a while to churn this out. Overhang certainly seems less pronounced after the big clear-out yesterday, plenty of traders taking profits and the buys still good sizes and consistent.

Someone loading up on the dip doing well not to move the ASK up, won’t last.

Can’t wait for the £400m deal from our sub £1m range of investments, should be good.

If SIU have made a formal offer for all shares can it be rejected or does it have to go to shareholders.

£228k offload holding us back now cleared

Ooops wasn’t going to buy anymore..

What a gift the current share price

40p then 42p seems to be last resistance, after that it’s clear sky’s

Another jolly paid for by shareholders. Enjoy the free booze and hotels.

So you think I was an idiot deramper and then an offer of up to 1.4p in shares equivalent comes in? Seems like I was spot on no?

When it comes to ‘expressions of interest’ there’s a chance that those of us on this board know more about SFB than ‘interested parties’. Also no one is talking price yet, no doubt they will be looking at either buying the asset or buying the company, whichever gets the SFB the cheapest. Currently the MCAP is supporting the takeover scenario which is unlikely to be greater than 30% premium to the share price at the time. I think the expectation was that the announcement would put a ticket under the share price abc get up to at least 3p in short order which simply hasn’t happened. We are now vulnerable to low ball takeover offers IMO. This needs to get moving, and quickly or we will only get 1.5p.

Am I right I’m thinking that CUDA isn’t related to the recent discovery? In which case why are people so focused on it? I’d say it just takes up capital that can be better spent elsewhere. While we’re at it the same goes for The Nigeria that everyone is so bothered about (85% profit tax!). Seems to have been stranded in bureaucracy since 2017? Also - Africa? A complete nightmare to get involved in. LTH seem fairly attached to this one but I suggest the paradigm has shifted, we want to clear the decks and focus our time and capital where it can be best utilised to realise value. As for valuation, it all depends on what we want to do with it. If we are still going to be extracting oil as a sizeable mid cap oil company in 3 years then the flow rates on the horizontals will be the key. However if we are going to sell up in 1 year and retire then CPR will be important, followed by a quality horizontal to price concept. In both cases the price of oil at over $80 and rising, with under investment across the industry, will support the economics to our benefit. If all goes to plan a £1bn MCAP based on a conservative 80k bopd production or $3/bbl extractable sale.

It’s worth looking at similar size producers and transactions for comparison.

In my view we should go into production, this is all in one field, onshore in the USA, relatively cheap and easy to extract. Full field development will result in excellent margins, we know oil price is rising, £1bn+ REVENUE company is there for the taking.

GLA

Even if the CPR is 20% lower this is still massive and undervalued at anything under £5

Didn’t Art say they have been working in this since Aug 2021- thetefore the CPR should be in line with company estimates IMO

Has it been moved down to capture these big buys in which case it should move back up quickly or is it someone just buying on the dip?

All aboard, last tickets to 40p, leaving at 2:30pm, chuffchuffchuff choochoo!

The fact is the world will be using more oil on average every year for the next 40 years or so, unless something drastically changes. Prediction is 20% higher in 2045 than 2020. Most the low hanging fruit has been discovered, we just picked up one of the few remaining big ones.

Buys are 6v1, who will blink first...