Member Info for Bridgedogg1

COPL suddenly looks like a safe haven!

A Chinese partnered deal in Africa looking surprisingly safe geopolitically

Recovery kicking in across markets after initial sell off

There a lot of short term trader money in Prem that’s leaving right now.

Management always state what Anglo had this on their books for but never what they subsequently sold it for… I wonder why that is.

“Confirmed a substantially reduced turnkey quote for the drilling of the Jade prospect of US$12.38 million on a dry hole basis, an approximate 34% saving on the initial quote. On a success basis, testing of any oil column has been quoted at an additional US$7.4 million. Immediately following the Placing and Convertible Note issue, the Company will have £10.68m (approx US$14.2m) cash on hand.

$1.98 lost in fraud so it’s tight. In a success case $7.5m needs to be found just to test.

8 licenses awaiting good weather.. what about the other 5 that were nearly completed a month ago??

Looking forward to seeing more technical details on the geology, assuming it’s made public?? I guess that’s valuable information if part of it sits on another license.

Two of: -ETH -a big payroll deal -strong transaction figures -a big retail deal, will see this in the 40s. This could happen any time.
I think Mode is going to see a string of small to medium size deals that will push this into the 30s over the next 2 months.

The 120-160mt figure isn’t new, it’s been on the company website for a while. It’s what the company thinks the wider resource size is. Not yet proved up but it’s a bright future.

“ If fundamentals improve, I'll load up”

The fact is there isn’t really any issue with the fundamentals. Director sell and sacking has triggered the huge fall. A few more complaints and profit reduction shouldn’t have wiped this much off but it’s uncertainty and contagion from Amigo et al also weighing. MCL is a run run company, ofcourse there are chancers that will try and get money back on their loans regardless but as long as they are assessed properly - which will cost a bit in the short term - then no issues. Currently customers who reuse the service won’t complain or they will be cut off. There’s a 96% win rate with FOS. So the issue is down to increased costs in complaint handling. We have improved margins with huge increases in digital loans which have a very low lending limit and affordability checks. The FCA have noted that we have a prudent approach to lending. This isn’t Amigo. We pay dividends. We have a pile of cash. A strong loan book. Impairments are below guidance.

This should recover very quickly once a little clarification is provided.

CaneToad, I see you are quite negative on this. Certainly has been a downward trend since the end of 2019 but the mcap has now hit the cash value, we also have a nice support at 125p from Nov 2021, the £700m acquisition already paying dividends.
I also noticed the bonus' came down by £5m this year so maybe governance is strengthening in that area. New products in ESG and crypto. Investment in technology. Expanding globally. Just all seems to be moving in the right direction for me.

I dont know if Phase 2 Partners, still have their 12% short position open, seems like this could well be the source of automated trades forcing the price downwards. We now have Liontrust on board with 10%, I think that P2P might need to start unwinding their position which means buying back the stock in the market.

Basically its got to turn at some point and this feels like a good time for it to do so.

Gengie - there has been no mention of a CPR in any RNS.

CPR is :
-an annual requirement on the Canadian exchange - due by end March
-generally a requirement for debt funding and/or farm out agreements to independently verify internal findings
-a good strategy for the new find that the market seems to have dismissed - we have the in house data and Ryder Scott have already completed one for us so its a matter of verifying and updating the CPR

So its not been stated but the working theory is that a CPR is immanent.

Feels a bit precarious at these levels. When it drops into 35s I get very worried. Should be the floor here so we will see. Long term these movements wont matter but... wish i could turn the screen off

Could be lift off this afternoon. Fingers crossed.

Automated buys - Liontrust adding more? Certainly a fund buying along with the technical traders.

"The cost base of the HCC division has been impacted in recent days by a rapid increase in claim volumes submitted via claims management companies"

How can an increase in claims over the period of a few days reduced end of year profit by circa £2.5m? Are the claims being paid out? Otherwise it just doesnt make any sense?

Bouncing off the December floor at 125, could see a steady rise now towards end March.

“ My fellow Directors and I are calm and expect a peaceful resolution of the geopolitical tensions”

They probably aren’t quite so calm at the moment. This needs an update on the impacts war and sanctions have on the strategy and company as a whole.

The net revenue figure - that’s net of the total gross production not net as in after costs. So what is the free cash flow is revenue is $250k per month?

“… we are progressing the previously announced due diligence exercise being undertaken by a financing party currently interested in backing our plans for Greenfield, together with other matters in relation to the TSHII site. We look forward to providing further updates in due course."

‘In due course’ isn’t 2 weeks…

Expect news on drilling will be in the next few trading sessions but funding could be anytime, hopefully March while drilling excitement is kicking in.