Member Info for Bozi

CD- do you really think SOLG are going to give 50-70% of the likes of Porvenir, Sharug, Rio Amarillo away just to stir a few SP spikes?

Clue: they're not.

They'd be better off selling their stake in ENSA and reinvesting the proceeds (no special divi). This way all CGP have is shares. They'd likely sell for their own liquidity and we'd be free of them.

JV'ing various licence blocks creating more CGP-like situations doesn't appeal. At all.

Look further than a trading opportunity. This is about business strategy not investors making a few quid short term.

Disagree Bubble.

A JV soon after discovery usually sets up a rerating of the share price as there's a significant derisking event for the company, i.e. resources, technical expertise etc etc.

A JV on Alpala at this stage does relatively little (in comparison) for SOLG IMO. Maybe we'd see 35p.

Reason being that development is more advanced and company valuation is already linked to project NPV.

35p is £750m. That feels about right to me pre DFS and financing package. Good financing is more of a catalyst in my view as that is another derisking event.

Suspect you're right Jerry.

SOLGs PI base consists of plenty of impatient trade oriented folks who are likely to be happy with a bag from here.

Prepare for the same with GGP

LunchMoney

I agree that CGP would definitely cut and run at £1. I suspect Newcrest would too. They're a bystander here who is trying to be relevant. They're a sheep in wolf's clothing.

Nick and DGR hold the keys. I take your point about DGR taking the cash and derisking their own business. It's not out of the question.

Let's hope one man can put a value on the business. Mr Nicholas Mather.

Yes Addicknt, I'm aware of that. However, surely there is something to read into given one of their investments is SOLG and given SOLG has to be on their M&A short shortlist? SOLG obviously has it's place in it's sector of the market place, being one of the mid cap exploration juniors.

Whether we think we're overvalued or undervalued is a separate argument and one where all will become a bit clearer in the coming months with the release of the studies due. Events with the PFS delay and the reliance on Tandayama America for the wider 'early production' Cascabel plan certainly give off one view about Alpala as a standalone block cave and the market commentators on the other side of the pond seem to be running with this which makes raising capital in North America more difficult.

Jerry, I'm not saying BHP should openly say they will overpay for an asset but lets be honest here as SolGold investors who want the best result... we want to be paid a fair price. A price that gives us the upside we deserve for the risks we have taken over the last decade. I've no time for a company that has just thrown off $10bn in cash this week turning to the press and talking of playing hsrd ball for a commodity they are short of. If they want something they can damn well pay for it.

I take your point about the last cycle too. A valid one for sure but it doesn't change the here and now, the opportunity that SOLG represents for a gold centric miner looking for exposure to the red metal. That's all we should really care about.

So DBW, answer my earlier question please.

BHP are wary of asset values now, whilst SOLG is 25p. So how does this bode for us going forwards.

Are we about to become subject to a real bit of hard ball or are BHP going to pony up with the goods?

So what are we all holding for Addicknt? :-)

Addicknt - plenty are of the view that BHP will pay 55p, 80p, 100p, 132p, 200p, 500p. All prices we've seen quoted on this board in recent days.

By effectively saying BHP will overpay or pay a huge premium on current prices they are railing against the view BHP have just made public today.

Given BHPs position and caution with regards asset values given where commodity prices currently are, what are they proposing? Are they going to make derisory offers for assets in a bull market and potential commodity supercycle, or are they banking on another bear to take us right back down to 2015 and 2016 levels?

I'm not saying they won't buy us, but they have clearly said today that current values aren't attractive to them. That has to be worrying for us SOLG shareholders?

I don't think they will overpay. That's what I have said since last December when Mather was taken out of the hotseat. Everything has conspired since. Working relationship with CGP and SOLG cosying up to major shareholders. Next for a friendly CEO.

And then for the kick in the nuts in say Q2/Q3 2022.

A true shame the opportunity that is going to be passed up here. At least Zoros, Smith Trader and Co will be happy with their 50% gain.

It's funny how everyone has overlooked that BHP overview isn't it Quady?

They've made it clear they want assets cheaper. Alpala isn't cheap enough with them.

They missed the bottom of the commodities bear yet still want to fleece us all of our SOLG shares despite spots commanding a higher premium.

People can posture as much as they want about bidding wars and other offers but that's all conjecture. These parties have shown no desire to get involved and there's no guarantee they'll emerge from the woodwork when the time comes.

CEO appointment crucial. My comments from last December when Nick was ushered to the door are ringing in my ears.

BHP are on record today saying they'll only get the chequebook out "if the price is right".

Some might see that as fighting talk. Others might see it as a step away from M&A in favour of other strategies.

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Henry has already said BHP is unlikely to hit the acquisition trail unless assets become cheaper. “I want to be very clear that whilst we are open to M&A, we are very cognisant of where commodity prices are.”

maybe we should expect some more weakness...

It takes 6-9 months to appoint a CEO at this level.

The process probably started in January given the proximity to christmas that everything went off with the AGM.

Applications were likely welcomed until at least the end of February, possibly March.

Screening early April with successful candidates invited to 1st stage assessment in late April or early May.

Successful candidates from shortlist invited back for next stage late May.

Leading candicdate chosen in June. Further conversations about job offer and any notice periods with current employer. Initial contract negotiations which have clearly spilled over into July. Maybe a site visit as well.

Once everything gets sorted it goes up for board ratification. Major shareholders undoubtedly consulted. Late July early August.

Timeline fits for me. They are close.

Governance is done properly here these days and it isn't a case of flinging any old contract under any old nose. They appointed Keith interim so they could take care with this appointment.

Dart - whilst i agree with you generally in what you tend to say on matters SOLG related, are you dismissing the possibility that there could be a strategicsl placing of an executive in the SOLG hotseat?

I mean this might just be me, but if i was heading up BHP I'd be selecting one of my best staff members of a certain group (sufficiently experienced and trustworthy) to be a strong candidate for the role of CEO as a means to make any future negotiations slightly less complex and potentially more favourable towards an offer from my company.

Quady - i don't believe anyone mentioned manipulation.

I have read the recent arguments on this by the way and have no wish to kick them off again. All I'll say is that the notion that all manipulation is noticed and acted upon by the relevant authorities is naive in the extreme.

That would be like saying that nobody evades tax because HMRC are so efficient that all taxes are collected as they fall due.

I don't believe SOLG is being manipulated. It tends to be quite easy to spot it and current trades and behaviours is just indicative of a risk off, weak summer market.

BBG - I have no evidence to make that claim.

Presumably you think these other UK brokers are short with BlackRock's stock?

I'm not ruling anything in or out but all I'd say is that the trades don't really indicate that sort of behaviour. If we were seeing above average volume trading days and some fairly big swings (in both directions) I'd be more inclined to believe you.

I say the above as I know of a stock where it is highly suspected this practice is happening right now, and trading patterns with SOLG are chalk and cheese.

Monte - previous answers give a good steer on this.

BlackRock hold SOLG across many funds and ETFs, many of which will be actively managed.

It just so happens their holding runs close to a % threshold and therefore every time they pass through that % they have to notify. This includes any changes to instruments they hold (CFDs).

I can't believe someone hasn't suggested they pin their total position on a half % mark, i.e. 4.5% or 5.5%. They'd probably save themselves a shedload of admin. In fact, there was a lengthy period of time when they were close to 6% and were presumably able to trade more freely without the need to post a TR1.

That said, the TR1 posting sits with the broker holding the shares, so i doubt BlackRock care much about the extra work...

Fair enough Addicknt.

I agree fully on the CEO but I'm less sure that JVs on the regionals will make the difference some suspect. We're talking about the lower priority projects that we've probably heard little to nothing about and i suspect any partnership will result in SOLG relinquishing operatorship for the partner to earn in.

It's entirely possible that the geos missed something in these areas during the first pass campaign but personally I'm not holding out anynhope these properties will yield a discovery. If they do that's a huge bonus.

These things do take time as you know. Months and months in times like these. Discussions, due diligence, site visits, more discussions before finally finding a middle ground.

I'm comfortable that it's coming whilst the company says it is.

What evidence do you have in mind Addicknt?

Also, and this is aimed at those who posted earlier in this thread, any notion of a 55p bid is sounding rather desperate.

We've got to accept it's business as usual for SOLG. Working towards project milestones at Cascabel and Porvenir whilst getting into Sharug and Rio Amarillo.

Loads to come.

That's precisely my point stockanswer. I don't see any huge weakness. I see what i assume is the downtrend getting exhausted. MMs aren't keen to sell the stock to investors here but are happy to buy it.

I feel a reversal very soon. Precious metal prices will follow behind.

My own view of the TA is that we're very close to the bottom now, and anyone selling in this sort of area is taking a real risk in trying to buy back cheaper. A quick flirt with 57p intraday might be the best chance that is seen.

PUR are gradually getting it right operationally and the costs will come down quite sharply as the equipment needed is capitalised on the balance sheet.

School holidays have a couple of weeks remaining and September should start to see an increase in liquidity across the board. The previous metals trade will be popular once again and i expect a tidy uplift to spot prices in the lead up to year end.

Stand by your beds folks. Not the time to be caught out of the market, pants down, IMO.

Personally I'd be happy to see an increase to the lithium resource to tempt investors back in and then release firm details on the demerger.

Investors will want to buy the lithium to get the gold NewCo shares so it makes sense to reiterate to market what we have on the lithium side of things

Maybe we can squeeze a Zaranou MRE in somewhere too?