Member Info for bonzoful

One buyer in recent days has been GMT Capital Corp which has reduced its short from 1.7% to 1.38% over the last couple of days. (short tracker website using data from the FCA)

For reasons I gave at the time I have switched from Cyan. I have reinvested in two comparable shares, am recovering some losses and have prospects of the sort of gains once held out by Cyan. IQE - produces chips for IOT, facial recognition, G5 and a host of other things ( raised �95 million at 140p in the autumn before being attacked by shorters who are now unwinding their position). Nanoco (produces cadmium free quantum dots for TVs, monitors, lighting, medical devices and a new mystery american corporation who are now financing Nanoco's expansion so they can purchase commercial quantities next year). Edison produce decent notes on both. DYOR.

Marshall Wace has reported a reduction in their short position: down 0.08% to 4.17%. Short tracker puts the total short position at 11.65%. Shortics also adds in estimates of short positions under 0.5% and ends up with a guestimate of 13.61% (which they will no doubt reduce to 13.53% when they take on the latest data from Marshall Wace).

Apples last quarterly announcement was of total iphone sales of 46.7 million in its fourth fiscal quarter (Jul-Sept). The article in Nikkei cited by the Telegraph suggests Apple plan to produce 50 million iphones in the three months from January: 20 million iphone X and 30 million other iphones. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-to-halve-iPhone-X-production-in-1Q?page=1

Final results published 12 March last year. So overdue. Either something awkward to explain or trying to finalise deal to report with publication. I am going with the latter. But unexplained delay uncomfortable.

The seven analysts offering views on the price of VEC over the next 12 months, as summarised by the FT, have an average target of 130p and a range from 110p to 145p. The 50% rise over the last few months has been welcome and there still seems limited downside. Looking 2-3 years ahead, as royalties grow and a dividend is paid I suspect beathat's optimism will be vindicated. But perhaps not one to interest day traders.

Silvana In Hygeas last report their investments in shares traded on the market were valued at £1.7m and their unquoted assets at £3.8m. Most of the quoted investments have done well since 31 December and, unless unannounced sales have taken place, are now worth £4.6m - equivalent to 56p a share. The Directors are committed to maintaining a 5p dividend though the timing is uncertain. Even at 55p Hygea appears to be offering a 9 per cent yield and 45 per cent discount to underlying assets. I was checking up before selling a few. I wont, I'm holding on.

Filings in EU and Japan were made years ago, approval for NVA237 in EU has been obtained and launch is expected later this year. When the interims were announced the CEO said "We anticipate a number of major catalysts in 2012, including late-stage clinical data from our branded products, the launch of NVA237 in Europe, the EU filing of the combination product, QVA149, as well as progress with our generic programmes. We remain committed to continued cost control, disciplined R&D investment and building Vectura into a sustainably profitable company with strong growth prospects." Analysts expect Vectura to move into profit in 2014. The filings Lewis 1 refers to that year are for the US only where the FDA have yet to make the ground rules clear. Personally I find the sums come out well even without any earnings from the US. But dyor.

As I see it Vectura is close to breakeven and has several products about to reach markets in the EU and ROW. NVA237 will be approved and launched in Europe this year; results from the QVA149 studies will be presented in H2 2012 and launched in first area in 2013. VR315 is expected to be launched in Europe later this year - and their partner Sandoz have taken up the VR315 rights for the rest of the world. An announcement on work looking at emerging markets is also expected later this year. The management have a strong focus on reaching sustainable profitability and every chance of doing so. My source for this is a January presentation by the CEO available on Vectura's website. A subsequent update from Novartis added that Novartis is in dialogue with the FDA regarding additional clinical data needed to secure approval. QVA149 remains on track for submission in ex-US countries starting in the fourth quarter of 2012. Meanwhile Vectura have plenty of cash to reach breakeven and the ability to then start paying dividends.