Member Info for bonum

Interesting question you put forward on the BPC chat board and I think 'Page of Cups reply answers it well:-

"If they prove the 3D seismic and find oil, BPC will never go for production. They will sell the acreage to a major. They will likely have over 1BN recoverable barrels. Location wise, being next to GoM, it would be worth about $5-7 in the ground.

These are MASSIVE structures with unknown quantities never drilled before, so the upcoming drill will be the first to see what' there and if it is oil as indicated on the data then the volumes from the 3D will be confirmed.

Anything up to 28Bn barrels have been estimated, although Moyes estimate a fair 8-10Bn. It's hard to quantify a dollar valuation but recoverable oil of a 1 Bn barrels could equate to $5-7Bn as a book value. This would need further appraisal drilling to book that but as the structures are so vast and continuous another drill at the southern end 40Km away can test the extent quite easily.

We then have to factor in any stacked pay that may be layered in those structures, which can multiply the amount of oil along with the thickness of pay. Continuous reservoir thickness have shown up on the 3D as being 1km thick. Hopefully this drill will confirm all the data.

It will then be a case of which major will want to buy the oil. BP paid $10Bn for shale oil to BHP last year. Shale is expensive to drill and extract. In fact a lot of the majors will be losing money at an oil price of $60. The drilling and extraction costs for shallow water carbonate discoveries like the Bahamas will be a economical at $30-40 a barrel, so this is an added attraction for a large volume of easy oil."

The CEO and lates update on Thursday indicated a very packed timeline for RNS releases over the next few weeks and estimates of share price progression vary dependent on resuls, but are viwed in the possible ££'s range.

That aside, the price profression over the next few weeks is reasonably viewed as moving well into double figures from its current c. 3.5p level.

A FARM IN deal as strongly indicated, would blow that out of the water as we coukd have full fiwld development covered - the scale is huge.

It's not a question of one or the other for existent holders of TXP, but securing BPC perhaps as the much bigger potential prospect in addition to your holding here, which has already seen a significant rise.

I hope that clarifies your initial enquiry.

Atb & have a great weekend.

I would be surprised if it was ONLY 4, 5 or 6p at the time of drilling ;)

Jim

I believe Jom outlined the same in one of his previous posts and looks highly likely we'll get that Farm in announcement shortly.

Next week should see the Share price push well beyond this weeks highs as many rightly anticipate imo, the pull on said price from the Newsflow releases outlined in Thursday's RNS.

The same pattern and a presursor to the much bigger push that it preceded. Also good to see the share price take that 'breather' in preparation for the aforementioned pull on the price from the multiple RNSs due - leading to spudding of the well.

Where will the SP be then - I would imagine a multiple of the current price.

Atb all

Well, have to agree with you there Fatal. I'm ignoring all the shenanigans during market hours and focusing on the bigger picture playing out and the expectation of the much bigger pay off.

Have a good weekend all

4-5p or higher close today

Next week will be see the Share price surge even higher - switching of the screen and checking in after close.

Interesting also is Etyan's statement regarding the share price in the previous interview - to paraphrase '2p, 3p,4p whatever will be irrelevant to the price moves we can expect'

Very bullish indeed from him and whilst reiterating the emphasis to proceed through drilling with the Farm in partner secured.

I think after the MF concludes next week, we'll see the mother of all re-rates, if you like.

20p, 18p, 26p......it'll all be a massive multiple on the current share price.

Atb

Agreed Jim and the reason why it's almost certain imo, that we will indeed get that Farm in announcement, as refered to by the Company and Management.

It could be as soon as the conclusion of the Mutual Fund next week and why the CLN was extended to March.

It's good to see any slight dip in the price aggresively bought into and not surprising given the potential of the resource and the depth of Newsflow.

We could be having RNSs released every few days, signing off key events and leading to the oft discussed 'Price Re-rates' we can reasonably epect off them.

Attempting to trade the share can indeed be hazardous given those Newsflow expectations and the pull they'd have on the share price, as some are already finding out.

We should move well into double figures by Spud, imo and into the 20's is certainly on the cards with a Farm in announced prior to that - all imo and what I certainly expect.

I remember previously selling a part of my holding at circa 16p.....only to see it move past 26p+ and off sentiment from the broker note.

Now, we are far ADVANCED from that point and even with the additional share issuance accounted for, current developments and overwhelming price momentum should again see us well into that range pre drill results.

I'll look in now & then but spare observing the intra day price movements, for the MUCH, MUCH bigger gains we can reasonably expect over the coming few days.

Atb

Probably some individual large trades would perhaps indicate something - maybe 1M singular trade size, or the such.

That's obviously not conclusive in itself and any buying may indeed be in smaller blocks - but it would be divergent from the usual trading pattern seen.

Atb & have a good evening all

Hope you checked out that little oiler I refered to you.

Atb

A Multiple of the current price - and that's just on the build up to spud!!

Very reassuring to see any dip being bought into and the price finishing at the days high.

The raft of Newsflow expected in close succesion and the immese magnitude of the potential resource, makes this hazardpus to trade and should pull the price into much higher levels over the coming days.

The momentum has only just started here.

Have a good evening all.

Pre-spud (April 2020) well into double figures - I'm looking at 11-15p and for reasons given previously

With a Farm in - way Higher!

2 Billion barrels recoverable.

Irrespective, a very significant, multiple ROI on current price levels, however it's looked at.

Switching off the screen for a bit and awaiting what I expect will be the move towards those levels building up Momentum.

Farm in looks like it'll be announced soon after 7th Feb imo.

Atb

Doubt it ;)

My thoughts are that we may get the Farm in announcement after the completion of the Mutual Fund. They're aware of how such an announcement would affect the share price prior to the MF and the disconnect between those shares and the prevailing price.

The Farm in is going to happen, imo, with the emphasis still being made in it in all official RNSs and Wtyan's comments on that still being the furst choice route......this despite being covered for Perserverence 1.

I think many on the sidelines were looking to get in next week before conclusion of the MF and will now take their positions somewhat earlier.....others amassing their own stock next week - and quite possibly / probably the Farm in announced thereafter.

The Monentum will build up Rapidly.

Indeed, the much bigger overall price appreciation and specific Re-rates are yet to come.

This is just the momentum slowly building Up and as anticipated, for the more major Newsflow about to hit and in the coming days.

As has been mentioned and shown very clearly previously, this can run up very fast indeed, as said Momentum takes hold and with anticipation of the move strongly into double figures by Spudding.

Atb & have a good day all.

We finished at near the day's high, so looks like it's less people looking at making a quick buck (there will always be those of course) and more about people 'beginning' to take positions for what is a very heavily watched stock.

I think the momentum is just starting to pick up and hence would expect the price to react accordingly.

However, it is the bigger picture playing out for most of us LTH who have already grasped the massive potential for a ROI, hence very short transient moves are of no great significance.

Looking forward to moving into double figures by spudding.

Atb

Be good to get into the 3-4p range - with the Mutual Fund timeline fast approaching, people will look to get in quickly, imo.

As Harry stated earlier, the MF would be 'suicidal' for BPC and all concerned if solid progress wasn't expected.

Atb & have a good evening all

Good to see you on the BB SongSungBlue - it's a time of resurrection all round.

Hopefully we'll get a certain tree worshiping druid back too ;)

No doubt there'll be an exhaustion of the profit taking soon and we can welcome an influx of 'new blood' to this stock.

A very transient pool of red, followed by a rising sea of blue over the coming weeks.

Atb