Member Info for Bonkers0801

Crazytowner latest presentation on kefi website

Cape town presentation Feb 2025

Slide 16

Titled tula kapi minerials resources and ore reserves

Resources 1.72m Oz gold @ 2.65

RESERVE 1.05m Oz gold @ 2.12

That is the current official figures

Stebo have no desire to deramp this share , having alternative views to the ultra positives downturn make me less of an investor.

I dont tell posters to buy

I dont tell them to sell

I acknowledge some upside potential

Ill debate what I feel is incorrect or something I can learn from

I will agree with things I agree with.

For actually speaking kefi to me.

Anyone tha took on board your side of debate and trusts it will see a safer investment.

The few that listened to my side might re visit the dfs and learn a little more which might also make their investment more sound.

It's a one player game

i'm actually not trying to be a **** , you put numbers up , fair play , i'm trying to see if there's anything i have missed.

still can't see it , so my personal risk remains the same.

your risk is completely different , as is your numbers , so best of luck to you.

unfortunately we will have to agree to disagree on this one

Hi stebo

Do you mind pointing me in the direction of where it says 1.52m Oz minimum, the official reserve in the dfs 2017 is 1.05m Oz

The figure underneath of 1.42m Oz DOESNT include ore dilution, you lose ore and resource while mining.

I politely ask how can 1.7m Oz be a conservative estimate when nothing in the 2017 dfs says its anywhere close to that.

Underground mine of course has potential if there's something there that's economically viable to extract, I have never disputed that. What I am disputing is how can you add that to figures when no study have been completed, it's at least 10 years from happining and will need to have a mine closure costs involved.

It's like adding a presumed deposit at konso to your calculations when there's still tons and tons of work to be done , you don't start chucking 1000s at it now. You wait for the data.

Open pit mine agree might grow significantly, but my risk on what i see shows harry hasn't put a drill there for a age. He isn't proving up the resource or the reserve , why??? He could of quite easily spent cash doing so confirming what we are actually debating. If the data was there I'd be singing alongside you , but your calculations involves a lot of speculation which you say isn't.

Satellite deposits , are you referring to the ones in saudi? The place we cant afford to pay our exploration costs in , or soke at tk , I wasn't aware of any at tk if I'm honest.

My own calculations serve zero purpose to anyone but me , lucky for you though if they can sort finance out within the next couple of months I'll be out your hair , if i can get a penny or slightly more off the back of said finance I will be over the moon.

A better debate stebo but.....

Youvare STILL referring to the resource.

1.86 resource does not equate tob1.7m Oz of gold.

Page 25 of the lycopodium dfs clearly states that it's 1.05m Oz of reserve , any number above that is speculative

my motive is to ask a question on a post full of numbers that's said to be open to critiqe.

back of the *** calculations based on the dfs. ore reserve estimate page 25 of 299

been put on filter. couldn't care less , please leave me there , your putting me on filter because i'm typing something your emotional investing brain doesn't like to take on board

Hi stebo , can I please ask you a few questions based on your calculations in the post below , which I will add you have said are very open to critism or critique on what you call ultra conservative, not at all speculative and being your low calculations.

It would be good if this could be done friendly rather than a host of abuse coming my way from posters. I'm supposed to be on filter. And that my questions can be answered by anyone with the same view as you and your sums.

So, question where exactly do you see kefi extracting 1.7moz of gold from over the next 7 years?

Kefi are working to 140,000 Oz of gold over the next 7 years, which equates to 980,000oz of gold.

Where do you see the remaining 720,000 Oz coming from , bearing in mind you already said in your calculations you expect further upside ,so you wouldn't have been referring to the underground mining at that point. As adding a million new oz to the 1.7moz equals the 3moz you quote.

Also regarding the underground mining , is that not an event that's likley to occur in the next 9-10 years?afterall Kefi have a mine to Build and 7 years worth of tula kapi open pit mining to go before that even starts to happen.

A P.E.A. hasn't even been done on the underground work, and factors such as mine closure would need to be taken into account (not cheap) before a descion is made, As of 2017, lycopodium suggested a 10m cost mine closure. (That would have increased massively) and tjat cost will be even higher if underground mining actually takes place.

But even if a 1m resource was found, how much is recoverable and at what economic cost? Certainly you wouldn't make investment descions today or that event even takes place.

I'd even question if harry was that confident on underground mining why not do further drilling with the 10s of millions raised over the last 3 years , he can then prove it , formally extend the mine life and the resource which will mean more investors, but he didn't!!

So that still leaves the missing 720,000oz

Are you you suggesting its coming from konsa?

There is no chance based on current data

So I ask , please Where is 1.7m Oz coming from that you say is not speculative?"

My only theory was that you would have been a lot better swallowing that ego and saying bonkers , I made a school boy error , and I based my calculations on the resource, not the reserve. As there's nothing in the dfs that has a figure of 1.7m Oz other then the resource

Then, happy days we move on.

Stebo can I please ask a couple of questions based on the below post you made 6 days ago.

Don't need the posse to reply unless it's answering my questions. I'm aware what some think of my character. Grammar on a phone with fat fingers and how many posts ibhave written.

Anyway you posted the following ....

No worries Serendipity..

Good excuse to post the calcs again. Very open to any criticism or critique on the assumptions and numbers. Note that imo this us uber conservative, and not at all speculative. Personally I expect a much larger upside, but this is my "low" calcs which I base investment decisions on....

....Take 1.7moz (very likely to end up 3moz+, as per latest DFS expecting another 1moz in under-ground mine).

Take todays price of gold (again looking likely to rise over the life of the mine) of $3,300 (already nearly $3,400 today!)

Take an AISC of circa $1,000 (again likely to be less than this, keeping debt repayment separate).

1.7moz @ ($3,300 - $1,000) = $3.91b

less the finance liability of $300m (EG's $20m becomes 20% equity) = $3.61b

KEFI will hold minimum of 80% (possibly 85%) = $2.888b for KEFI = £2.18b

There are 8b shares in issue, but if we divide that by 8.25b to be conservative = 26.4p per share

Add in a factor of say 10% for time (which will obviously decrease as we get to production) = 23.8p

Add in a risk allowance for jurisdiction, of say 20% (very conservative - 1 in 5 of it going tits up - unlikely) = 19p

Add in a general allowance for sp not always matching NPV of say another 10% = 17.1p

As you can see, it is talk of "I can see this getting to 2p / 5p / etc" which is stupid and based on nothing other than sentiment, lack of experience and short-sightedness.

If we were to say that, following ratification, there is still only a 50:50 chance of Tulu Kapi happening, then a sp of anything less than 8.5p is theoretically still very cheap, even before the definitive documentation is actually signed off. After that anything less than 15p-17p is cheap.

This is also completely disregarding GMCO and our other licenses, etc., and also the fact that investing in miners is speculative - we typically pay more than NPV on the gamble that KEFI are very likely to find significantly more gold - it's literally their business model.

Call it ramping, stupid, crazy, etc. if you like, but if you are going to say that I am wrong, at least post your valuation calculations to show me how KEFI is only worth 2p (£165m!!!)

Qnard good post.

I have looked at the latest dfs and the reserve still shows 1.05moz

The future exploration of jist over 1m hasn't even had a P.E.A yet , it's not even been determined as economically extractable.

I personally don't base my predictions on hope.

I simply felt stebo and others were baking their predictions on the 1.7m Oz resource. I still believe that's what he has done , it's the only thing in the dfs that is 1.7m Oz

I'm now told that those figures are based on future targets. That was not the case when posting them , and the aggro the likes of mf got for posting his personal summery because it contained unknowns is now laughable considering what's being said.

Let's be clear currently kefi are working towards 140,000oz per annum , that's the figures that banks will use, it's the figures kefibuse and the figures I use.

I dont need the "posse" to reply all the kinds of crap that was pointless to my original thread. The responces only said more about them posters then me.

Ill love to know one simple question ,

What exactly was stebo referring too when starting his calculations at 1.7moz

Was it the resource (highly highly likley)

Or was it something else , if so exactly what is it, without the fluff that normally comes with it.

For the sale of the sane. With luck you won't have me here much longer

You don't see the point of my post pmsl

The point of my post is very simple, stebo has said many times he's happy for constructive debate on his numbers.

I'm simply saying his numbers start 1.8b more then what I start mine with and the reasons why.

Stebo starts his numbers based on the resource of 1.7moz

I start my numbers based on the reserve which kefi use 1.05oz

It demonstrates why I believe stebo and many others projections are far to high.

Do you agree that it should be based on 1.7m Oz or 1.05m Oz because 700,000oz is a Huge difference.

Yet you don't see the point lol

In responce im told to go to sleep

I'm speaking crap

I forgot the targets and potential

And you don't see the point.

Fascinating, and you wonder why posters don't dispute the fantasy numbers.

Any comment on my post deedee that the s.p projections on this forum are 1.8b to high at a start point.

Or are you just gonna start a thread about how many posts I have written!!!

Clap clap

rob your simply talking potential and targets, you wanna add that in to a 25p share pruce target then good luck to you.

my debate and counter argument was the numbers listed by some used the resource as the start if calculations.

i'm simply using the probable reserve as is kefi.

it's amazing , i say the starting point is a massive 1.6b difference in price and the responce is "too come back weds". he the still talking *******s or yeah but there's also targets.

like i said i'm only saying why i don't believe a share oruce of say 25p or dividends of x amount are realistic

never known such an agenda driven board in my life

Ill post why i think some of the projections on this forum is wrong and i think them not for the sake of disagreeing.

Firstly this is my opinion only ,others like stebo have put their own opinions up , fair enough , I don't agree and theres a good chance he and others won't agr ee with my own thoughts. It should be very much a personal opinion especially when your money is involved.

I'll use stebos numbers, due to being easy to find and as a good guide to how many actually feel on this forum , many after all have a similar thought process to stebo, so this isn't aimed at him personally , rather then why my projections are different to many others here.

I don't actually need to post a whole list of numbers , as I believe stebos starting point is completley wrong and will show in a instant why I don't agree with many here.

Ok so Stebo has started of with sums of 1.7m Oz which equates to 3.91b over mine life . And then says its a conservative figure.

Stebo is using the RESOURCE to calculate his numbers rather then the RESERVE. and based on those numbers he is presuming every single Oz and gram will be extracted from thla kapi. That's impossible and Reality depending on mining methods, a large percentage of a ore can be lost when mining. I'll admit open pit does have its benefits in the sence off a good recovery rate.

However For me I base my own numbers on the reserve , currently a "probable" reserve I'll add at 1.05m Oz, It's the part of the ore experts believe are economically viable for extraction and what banks will base their numbers on, I'll add its only probable not confirmed (big difference) , imo Harry's lack of drilling is a consequence of this.

Kefi themselves say that a 7 year mine life at 140,000 per annum is the plan. 140,000 Oz a year does NOT equate to stebos 1.7m Oz. Not even close , over 700,00 Oz out.

When you equate that into hard cash my starting figure alone has a difference of over 1.8b , so a very good example of why our final calculations were always going to be so so far apart.

In to context that 1.8b is like giving over 20% of the world's population £1 each. It's a hell of a lot of money.

Tk is a good project , it could of been much better in my opinion , but let's be clear it is NOT a tier 1 gold mine.

It also doesnt fit in to the category of a tier 2 gold mine.

So why majors would want to pay 5-10 as a takeover target on a current 7 year mine at 140,000 Oz and year , I find incredible.

I'm not gonna post the rest of my numbers, it serves zero purpose , we should all have our individual exit points.

If I'm honest I'm amazed that so few of us don't see 1.7m Oz coming out the ground in the next 7 years.

Good luck to all those that do believe!

If my thinking above is wrong well it will be a learning curve for me

Reality and fantasy appear to have got incredibly mixed up in here at times

In my opinion of course lol

I think it needs to be a exit point your happy with, and needs to be 100% your desicion.

1.5-2p will be a multi bag , happy days

I'd be genuinely very very surprised stringer.

Think too many have took stebos rubbish on board and genuinly think those projections will happen

By my message you can tell I disagree lol

Hopefully make some good profit, (nearly 100% profit in fact)

With luck will be asked to sell at a penny ......if I'm lucky

Then I can exit with hopefully some profit.

With luck hope to make a penny.

The only manipulation is on this board ,

Even by the boards standards that didn't take long to delete