Member Info for bonker99

Morning.

Neodymium continues it's sharp breakout.

$160m gross revenue pa from Songwe now.

https://x.com/bonker_99/status/1831992375922622801

£250k!

Re HZM - CEO William Dawes own £250m investment here in the past 18 months makes me sleep real well at night.

Yeah I knew I already had you filtered for some reason - I wondered who it was popping up as filtered earlier and it was you - unfiltered you to play ball but back in the bin you go ;)

I'm not sure which is funnier - the speed that the hard drives were stripped of their magnets in that machine or the connection quality of this call :)

Quite.

Put another way - you can currently buy an extraordinarily leveraged long option on the rare earths price at a £0.00 premium and just three weeks before China does who-knows-what regarding protecting/vanishing 80%+ of the World's supply and two months before Trump does who-knows-what re China that could kick off an unprecedented trade war for years to come.

Remember: Must..have..inflation..

Https://x.com/bonker_99/status/1830692537624838482

I don't mind being pushed - obviously y'all should check my math but my Spideysense was already pinging on this Neodymium price rise re Songwe project viability.

Do also recognise that rare earths may become such a hot item in the year(s) ahead that the economics of a sizeable long LoM project like this may become less of a factor to a potential buyer - some may just want to secure the resource and screw the economics *cough* US military *cough* - £100m for the project right now would 8x bag us overnight ...

I hadn't forgotten about Pulawy - hence I think we're economical already :)

IIRC - we were promised an updated DFS including Pulawy following the MDA - something to nail the BOD on later ...

Page 57-58:

1.11.1 Capital and Operating Costs

The capital and operating cost inputs to the financial model are summarised in Table 1.14 to

Table 1.16.

Table 1.14: Capital Costs

Total real development capital US$ million 277.4

Contingency US$ million 33.8

Total Real Development Capital Including Contingency US$ million 311.2

Sustaining capital and reclamation US$ million 77.6

Total Real Capital Expenditure US$ million 388.8

Table 1.15: Operating Costs – Average over First Five Years

Mining US$/kg TREO 4.8

Beneficiation – Milling and Flotation US$/kg TREO 7.9

Hydrometallurgical Plant US$/kg TREO 10.8

G&A and Other US$/kg TREO 1.8

Total Operating Costs US$/kg TREO 25.3

Table 1.16: Operating Costs – Average over LOO

Mining US$/kg TREO 3.9

Beneficiation – Milling and Flotation US$/kg TREO 10.2

Hydrometallurgical Plant US$/kg TREO 13.8

G&A and Other US$/kg TREO 2.2

Total Operating Costs US$/kg TREO 30.1

So, CAPEX @ $388m in the DFSD (more like $500m by now of course) and c$30m pa running costs.

CAPEX aside, we're currently running at c$120m pa profit minus any items to be subtracted in the MDA.

I'm sure others can wrap this up from here :)

Basket prices are invariably difficult to weigh up in real time but 65% of the revenue comes from Neodymium alone - the other big three magnet rare earths (praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium) make up another 30% of the revenue. (1)

So, by extrapolation on the Neodymium spot price alone, we can say that the basket price of the concentrate is c1.5x the Neodymium revenue which is:

1,953tpa * spot price * c73% (typical price when in a concentrate) = $107m pa at today's spot price.

Hence, when you see the Neodymium revenue alone breaching $100m pa then it's time to sit up and take notice of what's going on with the total basket revenue pa being north of $150m ($2.7b+ over 18 years) - especially when the project may well be up for sale.

6.75p assets+cash post-dilution BTW - morning math not my speciality :)

(1) Page 54 of the DFS doc

Take note of the sensitivity analysis on page 59 - the NPV increases exponentially in reaction to a rising rare earths basket price such that +10% adds c20% to the NPV whilst +20% adds c50%.

That NPV value is what any sale of Songwe will be based on and that real-world/live number is arching vertically as I type.

Remember the strategic review ........

I now have the marked-to-market assets plus cash valuation (post dilution) @ 7.16p.

Y'all have seen this too I assume?

Record breaking result for latest renewables auction.

131 projects including:

☑️World's largest commercial-scale floating offshore wind project

☑️Contracts for the largest & second largest wind farms in Europe

☑️115 solar & onshore wind projects

https://x.com/energygovuk/status/1830878357334171662

Morning, well I'm not surprised the money guys are weighing in large again now - that's the last they'll get at 5p without doubt IMO.

It's the Neodymium price lift-off that's made that happen for sure.

+2.11% for the day, +13.9% for the month - by my math, Songwe is definitely viable now - hence the new money ...

FYI - IG spreadbetting takes the last trade price as the close, not the LSE close so, yes, it's just the spivs attempting to paint the tape down red.

It won't make a blind bit of difference to those who are simply sitting on their hands and waiting it out.

OPEC+ IS CLOSE TO AGREEMENT ON DELAYING SUPPLY HIKE: DELEGATE

I think the salient point is that we've likely already removed concerns about Songwe not being profitable at the current Neodymium/Rare Earths price.

If it keeps going up then the cash throw-off from Songwe leverages to eyewatering amounts for a company of this mcap - and it's still valued at less than £0.00 by my abacus - £0.00 would be 7s.

Not for Pelosi apparently lol

OPEC+ ARE DISCUSSING A DELAY TO THE PLANNED OIL OUTPUT HIKE IN OCTOBER - THREE OPEC+ SOURCES

Must..have..inflation..

* after the US election