Member Info for bonker99

Morning.

Half the rise of Canada then falling back the next day tells you all you need to know about AIM and why so many people now buy foreign shares instead :)

Still, no matter, I won't be gifting any of mine back to the market at 7p, I will, however, continue to look for buying opps into Q1.

I genuinely think this has been kept off as many radars as possible so no broker coverage but when people see it it's really going to go large - and fast.

Right on cue as I referred to earlier in the year re Trunp/China:

"China canceling export tax rebates for commodities (effectively keeping those commodities within China) is in preparation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods."

https://x.com/KingKong9888/status/1861118480709493159?t=ODYiAb8z-Ua7wrTbzD-B3Q&s=19

The market likes (loves) those recycling plant numbers, period, and we've already got one of them running full tilt real soon in Brum.

Why flip your 7p warrants for 10% when you can get 50%+?

Holding 7.7p here is extraordinarily bullish ...

1.5m over the ask?

Am I reading that right?

I think it's held up real well - I'll most certainly be weighing in again at 7p if offered ...

Probably - I'd be converting and sitting on my hands myself ...

Nice - ta.

I'm pretty sure they're the same things tbh :)

80% off the "offer" - almost interesting ...

How many warrants @ 7p?

No doubt but that was all (still existing) "potential" but now we've got the real-world numbers on the board, it's going to be a helluva lot harder to shake people out. Impossible, in fact, I'd venture.

I cannot for the life of me think why anyone would sell under 10-12p over the next 12 months.

TRUMP PLANS TO SEEK MONEY FROM CONGRESS TO REPLENISH STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE -SOURCES

Absolutely - hence my thicker pencil remark earlier.

The concrete lowball numbers here support a much higher mcap already, it's that simple - 10p looks a reasonable new floor to me but if the Neodymium/basket price goes higher (seems only a matter of time) then it could be double that and I'm still only talking about the single UK plant here.

Then there's the DFS/MDA mine we can sell for, I dunno, 20p+?

Yes, you can see why they pivoted to recycling and the "clean" magnets (from an ESG perspective) could well command a premium in the market too vs dirty mine resource.

US funding is great as it implies no dilution for us going forward for those projects so it's all money in the bank - we don't own 100% of them of course but that's moot at 7p/£20m for sure.

All I'll say on Tesla is that when they funded/bought a Silver mine last year they went for the one with the lowest costs/highest profitability per ounce of Silver. It's all about the profit for those guys so, again, a $20 AISC vs a low-ball $55 basket price is almost hard to believe tbh - it's an actual Gold mine with an $1,000 AISC and tiny CAPEX!

Subject to input/output at Birmingham being the same/similar as the US plants, that informs us/me that the fire sale valuation of the Birmingham plant alone is c£30m based on likely real-world revenue/profit and we have an mcap of £20m at 7p.

I said I wouldn't buy unless she broke 7s or dropped very much lower again, I'm changing that to I'll buy anything available under 10p over the coming months.

Happy days.

Morning.

Right, those DFS numbers are extremely encouraging I must say.

The AISC is very low indeed, lower than the Songwe mine IIRC?

Those NPV numbers give us a hard fire sale valuation at typical market prices of £100m-£200m.

The current basket price being 2.5x the AISC right now when we know Rare Earth prices are relatively suppressed is stellar from a risk perspective and I'd certainly be using a thicker pencil when writing down the high NPV myself looking forward.

This also gives us a read on potential revenue from the currently producing Birmingham pilot of course - very nice ...

Yup - just got that email myself :)

Morning.

That's an attractive IRR for Ionic - the NPV (*at DFS stage*) values it at c£120m in a sale so 10x our current mcap ...