Member Info for bobbins2

I don't question that Covid is highly contagious, but I just think that the risk to most people is being vastly over-exaggerated by politicians/scientists/media who aren't the ones going to lose their jobs or businesses. Unless you're over about 80, or have other serious health issues, you're chances of dying from Covid are miniscule, or even smaller the younger you are. I'm 56, and on a list of thngs I expect to kill me, Covid is about no.36.
As for the IAG share price, it fell to about £1.60 a few months back - that's about 64p in new money. The company has taken big strides to stem the losses it was incurring, but is still haemorrhaging cash, and now staring down the barrel of a second wave, and more lockdowns and travel restrictions, so I think 60 - 70 pence is a realistic possibility.

Whatamess - I completely agree with your opinions on populations, death, disease etc. but unfortunately the lunatics have taken over the asylum, and if you disagree with them you are likely to be treated as if you are a child molester. I find the lack of reasoned debate on this in the media (especially the BBC) really worrying. We are beaten over the head by one side of the argument without any proper examination of dubious statistics and the 'science'. There seems to be a conspiracy aimed at keeping people terrified of something that is of virtually no threat to them. And wouldn't it be nice if a member of the government stood up to tell us that 99.9% of us are going to be just fine, and that if you are under a certain age, you are more likely to be struck by debris from the International Space Station than die from Covid. Instead of which I have even heard rumours starting to circle of masks being made compulsory outdoors as well as inside! FFS!
PS - How many lives are going to be shortened by the economic Armageddon coming down the tracks?

£2 in 6 weeks time? That values the company at over £10 billion - £5 per share in old money. No chance.

George - I'm watching PMQ's (God knows why) and Boris, as usual, avoids actually answering any questions. It reminds me of how you have avoided answering Calamari's question about your quoted figure of £20 billion cash reserves.

George - it's rather early to have been drinking. £3 a share when vaccine announced? That's £7.50 in old money. Really?

I don't think you can judge somebody by what happens over a 24/48 hour period. Let's see where we are in a couple of weeks.

The are many people posting on this board who are in contention for this prestigious award. Whatamess is not one of them - his predictions for this share, and some others, have proved to be reasonably accurate - certainly more accurate than some people whose price predictions take no account of the massive share dilution.

TakingMyTime : Please don't desert this board - your well considered and balanced opinions are some of the only worthwhile contributions I've read here.

That values the company at £17.3 billion! Extreme muppetry.

A vaccine may well come along, but I think the timescales for this are wildly optimistic. I know a huge amount of money and resources are being thrown at this problem, but some corners just can't be cut without risking 'the cure' killing way more than the disease. Even then, its going to be too late to stop the mother of all recessions (depression?) which on it's own would be enough to severely depress the share price.
For what it's worth, I think BA/ IAG will survive and ultimately prosper, but I think it is going to take longer than most people think, although there may be brief spikes upward on rumours of vaccines/airport testing etc. Ultimately, there are soon to be 5 billion shares in circulation compared to 2 billion previously, so any talk of a share price over £2.70 means that the company would be valued higher than ever before, which in the foreseeable future is just not realistic.

After reading the Guardian article, perhaps it should be 'live dog bounce'.
Whatamess - do you anticipate a big sell-off once the new shares go live? I can see a lot of small investors, who got trapped into thinking they had no choice but to buy into the RI, ditching their shares straight away, rather than risk waiting for 2 or 3 years for the company to hopefully make a proper recovery.

£2.50 by Xmas? That values the company at £12.5 billion - £6.25 in old money, roughly where it was prior to this nightmare beginning. Can't see it myself.

I honestly thought this would hover around £1.20 / £1.30 until the new shares were issued, and then take a drop as people dumped them. Whatamess - what on earth were you thinking? 80pence - wildly optimistic!

The potential pitfalls in producing a vaccine are numerous. It is true that a huge amount of money and resources are being thrown at this problem, which may speed things up, but there is a reason why these things normally take years. Talk of a workable vaccine in the next few months strikes me as wildly optimistic Just for the record - I hope I am wrong.

Whatamess - If the money raised by the RI is ignored, the share price would be £4 billion divided by the new number of shares (5 billion) which equates to - guess what - 80 pence! Should this happen, will you be gloating, or will you be gracious enough to acknowledge the share dilution?

At todays share price, IAG is valued at just under £4 billion. The rights issue should raise £2.7 billion, so in theory the company would be valued at £6.7 billion in total, which equates to £3.35 with the current number of shares (2 billion). After the RI, there will be 5 billion shares in issue, compared to 2 billion today. That equates to a price of £1.34. However, I cannot see the full amount of money raised by the RI. being reflected in the company valuation, and subsequently the share price, particularly when at least some of that money is disappearing merely to keep the company afloat.

You seem to have missed the point about the price. To be able to buy the new shares at the discount price you have to be holding current shares- effectively purchasing them at the current price of 194p. One old share allows you to purchase 1.5 new shares at roughly 84p each, so 2.5 shares would cost about 320p - 128p each. Sirius - you will not be able to buy new shares at 84p. Unless the price of the new share plummets to that level.

DarkKnight2020 - just read your recent posts, and I agree wholeheartedly. Can't believe the gullibility of most people, and the hysterical overreaction to what is (for most people) a tiny risk. The negativity in the media is astonishing ; when 1000 people a day were dying, they couldn't wait to tell us - now the figure is down to low double figures, we don't hear a peep. Trying to find the daily death figure is almost impossible. More people have died on Scottish railways in the last week than from Covid - maybe we should abolish trains. People need to take responsibility for themselves, and if they are in a vulnerable position, then be careful. The rest of us need to get on with our lives.

Whatamess
You talk about flights to the USA starting in October, but BA and Iberia are already flying into North America on a frequent basis.