post by johnnyb1 (yesterday - worth a repeat)16 Jun 2020 11:53
Part 1-
Good evening all. Thought I would pop my head around the door.
It’s all getting rather interesting isn’t it.
Unusual to see prints still coming through +2 hours after the Close.
McNulty’s observations, while valid, represent sentiment and the effect of a significant PrimaryBid placing at the same price and timing of the institutions. Hence the volatility and the price not breaking higher on the news of the ‘transformational raise’.
They do not however, in my opinion, represent the underlying cause for the direction of travel.
As is often said on this Board, ‘nothing has changed’. If nothing has changed then there is typically equal buyers to sellers in a perfect market, which may experience volatility but rarely disproportionate intra-day price moves.
I would point to one or two ‘market mechanics’ as clues to understand what is happening.
1. The exceptionally high number of post-market prints of predominately Buy trades, while the SP has disproportionately moved down.
2. The MM of the company broker, appears to have been on the Offer consistently throughout today.
Now logic would have it, if the MM of the company broker had got wind there was imminent bad news, then clearly they would sell and clearly the other MM’s and the weak holders in the market would follow.
However, experience tells us, in such circumstances, the last thing a broker of the company would do is to signal to the entire market of a sell-off. This is just patently bad business, especially when you’ve just brought in a bunch of investors. Burn wealth management like that and suddenly you have no access to capital and you have no ‘sell-side’ broking business.
Also note. Institutions do not sell off in 10k parcels directly through the market. They have neither the time, the inclination or the compliance latitude. If they need out, they will place the entire block with either the broker of the company or their own broker (quite often their own broker...Compliance Officers don’t care about orderly markets, they care about TR1’s...of which there has been a lack of).
Most of the MM’s would not willingly move the SP below 120p when they are probably holding (or were) stock at that intrinsic value from the forward selling. MM’s will often take very cheap stock in such placing dynamics and they have up to 30 days to settle up their book. Plenty of time to see all the good news come out that the market has been waiting for and make a tidy profit.
So...if its improbable for the companies broker to violently and publicly sell and yet they are....and the number of undisclosed buys is disproportionately high.
To quote Sherlock Holmes; “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”
I suspect positive, not negative, news is imminent.