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Best case scenario is that some of the money flowing out of growth stops and Faang find their way into big oil, including Shell and keep this energy stocks rally going. Still hoping for 25 pounds sooner than later.
I read somewhere that oil prices had been above USD100 per barrel between 2011 to 1H 2014 but halved in 2H2014.
I wonder how long it will stay above USD100 this time.
Just Google it and found this:-
"After peaking at $107.95 a barrel on June 20, 2014, petroleum prices plunged to $44.08 a barrel by January 28, 2015, a drop of 59.2 percent in a little over 7 months."
Washington Posts had this to say in 2014:-
'The law of supply and demand did it. The price collapse mainly reflects too much supply chasing too little demand. Most analysts have focused on surging U.S. production of “shale” oil, which has increased by 3.5 million barrels a day (mbd) since 2008, according to the consultancy IHS. But the U.S. expansion was widely anticipated, says economist Larry Goldstein. The real surprise, he argues, was lower-than-expected global demand. In early 2014, forecasters predicted growth of 1.3 mbd, says Goldstein. Actual growth is about half that, 700,000 mbd, reflecting unpredicted economic weakness in Europe, Japan and China.'
I don't see supply going up any time soon but demand may fall if the major economies go into recession.
2022 will cerainly be an interesting year for Shell and Oil.
Having hit 23 pounds this week , I am now looking forward to 25 pounds soon. The money moving out of tech and other sectors has to go somewhere and it seems a lot is moving into Oil and Gas.
I started buying Shell about 2 years ago and what a ride it has been. It may still have some more legs to run so I am still hanging in here.
I probably will never understand the sometimes divergence between oil price and share price.
Should be in tandem, but isnt always so.
Im suprised the SP has yet to Breach £21, although it did come close to Its recent high.
Interesting to see How it moves from here.
However, none of us would want higher prices at the expense of lives so I do hope there can be a quick revolution in Ukraine.
I dont understand why the SP has breached £21 by now having gone up to 20.80 not too long ago.
We should actually be seeing the SP closer to £22 by now with all this geopolitical issues and supply-side concerns
Finally hit IT today!
Barclays just upped Its TP to £30. Set that against my initial exit TP of £22, id probably consider a NEW TP of £26 which is somewhere in between
Jim, I agree with you.
I had averaged down to £10 in 2020 and then tried to trade it. The price shot up after news of the vaccine. Luckily i got back in at an average price of £11.
I have a TP of £22 ie to double my money and that seems possible this year.
Oil will have One last hurrah this decade.
Not quite sure of Its ATH, did IT Breach £29 in 2018?
Anyway, IT could Breach £30 say in the next 3 to 5 years with dividends continuing to to up .
Could IT do £33 ie 3 times my cost price? Wishful thinking perhaps?
All I Know now is im enjoying the ride, while IT lasts.