RE: Target prices16 Apr 2021 15:22
The links provided by Tra1 yesterday provided an insight as to what a successful trial result may mean in terms of potential returns. Let's assume £275m for a global commercial deal with one or more companies. That would be around £20m to Vela, most likely consisting of an upfront payment and then future payments on milestones achieved. Compare that to current MC of £10m and it puts into perspective what this means to Vela. So I would agree with Suthy that 0.3 is achievable, which equates to £36m MC and being Aim, the excitement could easily result in overshooting this up to say 0.5.
For a balanced view, need to consider any adverse actions that may impact this SP rise. Firstly, SGS own 1.1bn shares or 7.95% so once they are out of lock in period, they may dump some or all their shares. That is a lot for the market to absorb all at once. The other issue is the number of warrants still outstanding. I think it may be around 3bn or so. If they are all exercised, then that means a potential 20% dilution. Partly offset by the monies paid but still looking at these 2 points together it may dampen any hype.
So I am hoping for 0.3 and would be delighted with anything north of that (within a week or so of deal confirmation). Once all the news is in, shares sold, warrants exercised, new investments made etc, then I think Vela will be viewed in a different light and will then need to re assess what it all means for the company in the longer term.